The Borda class: An axiomatic study of the Borda rule on top-truncated preferences

The Borda rule, originally defined on profiles of individual preferences modelled as linear orders over the set of alternatives, is one of the most important voting rules. But voting rules often need to be used on preferences of a different format as well, such as top-truncated orders, where agents rank just their most preferred alternatives. What is the right generalisation of the Borda rule to such richer models of preference? Several suggestions have been made in the literature, typically considering specific contexts where the rule is to be applied. In this work, taking an axiomatic perspective, we conduct a principled analysis of the different options for defining the Borda rule on top-truncated preferences.     

Co-authorship and research productivity in economics: Assessing the assortative matching hypothesis

This paper estimates the relation between the size and quality of scientists’ co-author networks and individual characteristics (notably productivity) in the context of institutional changes in French academia in the mid-1980s. The analysis employs the Two-Stage Residual Inclusion (2SRI) framework to handle endogeneity in individual productivity relative to the quality of co-authors. The main finding is that the size and quality of authors’ networks are positively related to their productivity; this is understood as evidence of assortative matching. Other effects on co-author networks (such as life-cycles, specialties fields) are also identified. Our results have important policy implications as it indirectly demonstrates the effectiveness of career incentives linked to publication.     

Do Shoppers Like Electronic Coupons?: A Panel Data Analysis

Past research has yielded valuable insights into the drivers of traditional coupon redemption, but the applicability of these results to electronic coupons remains an open question. We investigate the determinants of electronic coupon redemption, employing a large panel dataset for five product categories (detergent, milk, cookies, shampoo, and orange juice) for the period 2003-2005. Our findings reveal that education and employment positively influence redemption rates and our analysis indicates that these findings are not due to unobserved individual effects. The focus is on comparing coupon-use discrepancies between national and private label brands when the characteristics of coupons are taken into account. A higher face value appears to be a critical element in electronic coupon format, and this gives rise to more purchases for nonperishables (shampoo and detergent). Results also show significant seasonal variations in milk and orange-juice coupon usage. Furthermore, the distance of consumers from the redemption location has a significantly negative effect, whereas the expiration date has no evident effect. The implications for electronic coupon research and practice are discussed.     

Absenteeism in the workplace: results from Danish sample survey data

Absentee data is analyzed using a worker environmental survey carried out in 1995. In a model which distinguishes between discretionary and involuntary absences individuals are assumed to maximize expected utility. This generates a probability distribution of days absent per year which is a mixture of two negative binomial distributions representing the behaviour of two unknown types of agent. This distribution is estimated separately for men and women. For each gender the number of days absent is quite small relative to what researchers have found in other countries. In the empirical model we identify different effects of the explanatory variables for workers with low rates of absenteeism and workers with high rates of absenteeism.     

湖南省南县土地利用动态变化研究

土地利用变化是区域变化的重要组成部分,是短时期内人类活动对自然环境改造的显著表现形式.随着人口持续增长和社会经济的快速发展,南县土地利用发生了较大变化.以土地统计资料为依据,对南县1983-2003年的土地利用变化过程进行了全面分析.结果表明:土地利用结构发生了明显变化;土地利用变化速度较快;土地利用程度较高,土地利用处于调整期;人类活动对景观格局有较为明显的影响.     

Estimating demand systems when outcomes are correlated counts

We describe and employ a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting a high-dimensional system of ordinal or count outcome equations. The model is then applied to describe the multiple site recreation demands of individual agents, and we argue that our approach provides advantages relative to existing methods commonly applied in this area. In particular, our model flexibly adjusts to match observed frequencies in trip outcomes, permits a flexible correlation pattern among the sites visited by individuals, and the posterior simulator for fitting this model is relatively easy to implement in practice. We also describe how the posterior simulations produced from the model can be used to conduct a variety of counterfactual experiments, including predicting behavioral changes and describing welfare implications resulting from shifts in exogenous demographic and site characteristics. We illustrate our method using data from the Iowa Lakes Project by modeling the visitation patterns of individuals to a set of twenty-nine large Iowa lakes. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, we see strong evidence that own and cross-price effects on trip demand are negative and positive, respectively, that higher income increases the likelihood of visiting most sites, and that a commonly used indicator of water quality, Secchi transparency, is positively correlated with the number of trips taken. In addition, the correlation structure among the errors reveals a complex pattern in which unobserved factors affecting trip demand are generally (though not strictly) positively correlated across sites. The flexibility and richness with which we are able to characterize the demand system provides a solid platform for counterfactual analysis, where we find significant behavioral and welfare effects from changes in site availability, water quality, and travel costs.     

Winning probabilities in a pairwise lottery system with three alternatives

Summary. The pairwise lottery system is a multiple round voting procedure which chooses by lot a winner from a pair of alternatives to advance to the next round where in each round the odds of selection are based on each alternatives majority rule votes. We develop a framework for determining the asymptotic relative likelihood of the lottery selecting in the final round the Borda winner, Condorcet winner, and Condorcet loser for the three alternative case. We also show the procedure is equivalent to a Borda lottery when only a single round of voting is conducted. Finally, we present an alternative voting rule which yields the same winning probabilities as the pairwise lottery in the limiting case as the number of rounds of the pairwise lottery becomes large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 17 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D71. Correspondence to: Jac C. HeckelmanWe thank Keith Dougherty and Andrew Yates for their comments.     

Agricultural production and children's diets: evidence from rural Ethiopia

We study the relationship between pre‐school children's food consumption and household agricultural production. Using a large household survey from rural Ethiopia, we find that increasing household production diversity leads to considerable improvements in children's dietary diversity. However, we also document how this nonseparability of consumption and production does not hold for households that have access to food markets. These findings imply that nutrition‐sensitive agricultural interventions that push for market integration are likely to be more effective in reducing under‐nutrition than those promoting production diversity.     

A white-boxed ISSM approach to estimate uncertainty distributions of Walmart sales

We present our solution for the M5 Uncertainty competition. Our solution ranked sixth out of 909 submissions across all hierarchical levels and ranked first for prediction at the finest level of granularity (product-store sales, i.e. SKUs). The model combines a multi-stage state-space model and Monte Carlo simulations to generate the forecasting scenarios (trajectories). Observed sales are modelled with negative binomial distributions to represent discrete over-dispersed sales. Seasonal factors are handcrafted and modelled with linear coefficients that are calculated at the store-department level.     

Evaluating Wisconsin dairy producer compliance and potential eligibility for international markets under existing European Union and United States Grade “A” bulk tank somatic cell count compliance criteria

A proposal to lower the bulk tank Somatic Cell Count (SCC) maximum for United States of America (US) Grade “A” milk producers was not adopted by the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments in 2011 or 2013. The proposal would have made the US Grade “A” limit consistent with many other international standards, including that of the European Union (EU). Some US states, however, have proactively adopted their own SCC limit to mirror the EU limit. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impacts on Wisconsin dairy producers if Wisconsin should adopt the current EU limit and compliance criterion. Analyses were done on SCC results for Wisconsin Grade “A” and Grade “B” dairy producers reported each month to the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (WDATCP) during January 1, 2009–December 31, 2012. Results were evaluated against the current US Grade “A” and EU compliance criteria for SCC and the percentage of (producer × month) combinations in compliance was determined. If the current EU SCC compliance criterion was in place, 86.7–94.3 and 64.3–77.3% of Wisconsin Grade “A” and “Grade “B” (producer × month) combinations, respectively, would have been in compliance for the years 2009–2012. Compliance of Wisconsin Grade “A” and Grade “B” producers with the existing US SCC compliance criterion during the same period was 99.3–99.7% and 87.9–93.9% (producer × month combinations) respectively. An analysis of a subset of Wisconsin Grade “A” producers indicated that smaller-volume producers were less likely than larger-volume producers to meet the EU criterion.