中国饲料工业期货的价格发现实证研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解、脉冲响应函数等方法,以中国唯一的饲料工业期货———大连商品交易所豆粕期货品种为例,研究了期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量刻画了期货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果显示:豆粕期货价格与现货价格存在相互引导关系,并且期货与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,对豆粕期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用。     

Financial statement data in assessing the future potential of a technology firm: The case of Nokia

The paper introduces a financial statement method to assess the future potential of a firm. First, the last strategic steady phase is identified. Second, growth rate for total expenditure is estimated (growth process). Third, the revenue generating potential of total expenditure is evaluated by a distributed lag function (revenue-generating process). This function is used to recalculate expenses and assets using alternative depreciation theories. Third, financial behavior is modeled by analyzing financial assets, taxation, interest expenses and revenues, and dividends (financial process). Fourth, these processes are used to assess the future potential. The method is illustrated by the case of Nokia for the period 1990-2000.     

从国开行的统贷模式探讨中小企业融资难题

中国中小企业的组织形式、企业规模等因素,决定了股票和债券市场不可能成为其有效的融资渠道。没有足够的可抵押资产及相应的担保更无法获得银行贷款。国家开发银行开创性的创造出了一个开放性的融资体系。这个融资体系包括一个向中小企业提供贷款的平台和一个为贷款提供担保的平台。这种开放式融资体系中的贷款模式有效的破解了中小企业融资市场中的规模难题、软信息难题及担保难题,为商业银行提供了有效借鉴。     

中国国有银行改革的理论与实践问题

当前对国有银行改革的讨论应立足于其初始条件,国有独资银行与商业银行不相容,国有银行具有特殊的职能边界———金融支持国家经济增长;在我国特定的历史阶段,国有银行改革应遵循两种截然相异的路径:完全的股份制或国有独资,而国有控股将导致较高的道德风险;机构利益的独立性并非国有银行的专有问题,通过激励机制设计应该保持国有独资银行的利益从属于中央政府的经济金融政策;国有银行的分支机构和人力资源在不同的改革思路下会具有“历史包袱”和“历史财富”的或然双重性质,关键在于能否从时间序列上观察银行绩效;银行改革成本只能是因支持经济增长和经济体制改革所付出的代价,这一代价的跨期承担优于即期摊销。     

世界银行卡产业发展研究

随着全球经济的复苏和银行卡受理环境的改善,近年来世界银行卡产业保持着迅捷的增长势头,银行卡作为支付手段对现金和支票的替代作用也日益明显。本文从总量指标和人均指标两方面对当前世界主要国家和地区银行卡产业的交易状况进行了实证研究,分析了全球银行卡市场在区域和品牌上的分布结构,并对该产业近年来的发展趋势进行了总结与探讨。     

对国外石油化工行业的考察与思考

介绍了国外石油化工行业的发展趋势和主营业务的发展方向，以及国外公司在保持公司核心竞争力上所采取的战略。通过对跨国石油公司在公司的发展定位，组织结构的设置，生产与经营管理，面临的环保挑战等方面分析，提出中国石油化工企业参与国际竞争应改进的几个方面。     

Market orientation and customer satisfaction: Evidence from British machine tool industry

This paper examines empirically the relationship between market orientation and business performance in the context of British machine tool industry. An industry-specific market orientation scale was developed. Factor analysis revealed that there were four latent dimensions underlying the market orientation: customer orientation, competitor orientation, departmental responsiveness, and customer satisfaction orientation. Findings suggest that customer orientation and customer satisfaction orientation have a stronger impact on performance than the other dimensions, and that competitor orientation has a U-shape relationship with performance. Departmental responsiveness did not appear to be significantly related to the business performance. Managers could use the multidimensional conceptualization to develop particular kinds of orientations required for better performance.     

Organizational learning and market orientation: interface and effects on performance

This paper discusses the relationship between market orientation and organizational learning and, in particular, the former's contribution to the generation of double-loop learning. Although prior contributions on this topic have been controversial, the authors, departing from the principles of RBV, consider market orientation a resource capable of generating higher order organizational learning and, in this way, capable of additionally reinforcing firms' sustainable competitive advantage. The empirical study provides evidence on the existing relationship between a firm's learning and market orientation degree and the organization's economic and non-economic results. Findings indicate that learning orientation stimulates the market-oriented behavior and that it also positively affects the establishment of long-term relationships with strategic clients. Contrary to prior research a significant and positive effect on business performance is only contrasted in the case of market orientation.     

Firm orientations, innovativeness, and business performance: Advancing a system dynamics view following a comment on Hult, Hurley, and Knight's 2004 study

Hult, Hurley, and Knight's [Ind. Mark. Manage. 33 (2004) 429.] study reports correlations for each of the three subfactors of market orientation (competitor orientation, customer orientation, and interfunctional coordination) and innovativenss. However, their report fails to discuss the nature of these relationships. Such findings are worthy of discussion because they support prior evidence demonstrating the centrality of customer orientation in linking competitor orientation and interfunctional coordination with both innovativeness and business performance. Also, the finding that interfunctional coordination relates strongly with innovativeness supports the paradigm shift toward relationship marketing. The point needs mentioning that several different (more than one) standardized effects, structural equation models explain similar amounts of variance of business performance besides the models that Hult et al. examine. Thus, the implication by Hult et al. (p. 436) that “…learning orientation has no significant direct effect on performance” is accurate only for the model tested (shown in their Fig. 2). Applying the “quick clustering” method helps to inform interpretation when nearly all relationships among variables are statistically significant. The present article includes a proposal for advancing from one-directional structural equation modeling of innovativeness and business performance to system dynamics modeling that includes real-world feedback loops.     

寿险公司的业务同质化与风险联动性

单家机构之间的业务趋同是否是金融业系统性风险的一个来源？近些年中国单家寿险公司的产品分布和地理分布均更加分散,但是公司之间的产品分布和地理分布均有“同质化”趋势,且公司之间在赔付风险、投资风险和破产风险上的联动性均提高。对此,本文分析了寿险公司业务同质化引起风险联动性的机理,探讨了几种可能的效应。基于公司配对样本,并从时间上和地理上引入工具变量处理业务同质度的内生性,发现:(1)当两家寿险公司的产品分布从完全差别到完全相同时,它们的投资风险联动性和破产风险联动性均将提高十几个百分点;(2)产品同质度对赔付风险联动性没有显著影响;(3)地理同质化对3种风险联动性均没有显著影响。