Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time

We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as mixed sampling frequencies and ragged-edge data. First, we evaluate the theoretical gains of using data that are available promptly for computing probabilities of recession in real time. Second, we show how to estimate the model that deals with unbalanced panels of data and mixed frequencies, and examine the benefits of this extension through several Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability for the computation of real-time inferences of the US business cycle, and compare it with the alternative method of forecasting the probabilities of recession from balanced panels.     

Subsidiary-specific advantages for inter-regional expansion: The role of intermediate units

This paper explores the distinctive deployment of resources and capabilities by subsidiaries in order to develop an intermediate role within the MNC. Based on the regional management perspective, we focus on a specific intermediate role—the springboard subsidiary—that helps overcome the liability of inter-regional foreignness. Our results, which are based on a dataset covering 188 subsidiaries, show that the probability of taking on this role is contingent upon experiential knowledge about the target region, as well as a rich knowledge base derived from a wide range of activities and a broad geographical scope. Our findings also show that possession of slack resources does not necessarily mean that a subsidiary will take on this role, as such slack must be combined with experiential knowledge. This paper serves as a first step in helping MNCs plan resource allocation to handle inter-regional expansion.     

Developing globally responsible leaders: What role for business schools in the future?

This paper reports on a collaborative research process to explore the future role of business schools in the development of globally responsible leaders. Swinburne University of Technology held a collaboratory workshop of academics across disciplines and a range of business leaders to explore firstly what a globally responsible leader would look like and secondly how these capabilities would be developed. In taking forwards actions from the workshop, the Business School was noticeably absent which raised the specific question regarding the on-going role for business schools in the future development of leaders, and how they would need to change in order to maintain a future role in this sphere. The paper reflects on the transformative process necessary within business schools if they are to meet this future agenda.     

Socio-occupational and geographical determinants of the frequency of long-distance business travel in France

Business travel, and long-distance business travel in particular, has received much less attention in research than home-to-work travel. This article explores some determinants of the frequency of long-distance business travel. It focuses on the influence of two parameters that have been little studied: the individual’s socio-occupational group and the workplace location. The data used were provided by the 2008 French National Transport and Travel Survey. Following a review of the literature, a Poisson regression is performed on the frequency of long-distance business trips. The most significant determinants are socio-occupational category, income, gender and the urban or rural nature and size in terms of the number of inhabitants of the area of location. In particular long-distance business trip frequency is lower in the Paris urban area than in all the categories of urban areas as well as rural areas because of the highly centralised organisation of economic activity and the transport network in France.     

Outsourcing customer support: The role of provider customer focus

An increasing number of firms are outsourcing customer support to external service providers. This creates a triadic setting in which an outsourcing provider serves end customers on behalf of its clients. While outsourcing presents an opportunity to serve customers, service providers differ in their motivation and ability to fulfill customer needs. Prior research suggests that firms with a strong customer focus have an intrinsic motivation to address customer needs. We suggest that in an outsourcing context, this intrinsic motivation does not suffice. Using a Motivation–Opportunity–Ability framework, we posit that the effect of a provider's customer focus will be moderated by a set of relational, firm, and customer characteristics that affect its ability to serve end customers. We test our conceptualization among 171 outsourcing clients from the Netherlands and then validate these results among 135 Indian outsourcing providers. The findings reveal that customer-focused providers achieve higher levels of customer need fulfillment but this effect is contingent on their ability to serve end customers. In particular, customer-focused providers more effectively fulfill customer needs when clients and providers share close relational ties, when clients also have a high level of customer focus, and when end customer needs exhibit a low degree of turbulence. In addition, we find that, in turbulent markets, equipment-related services offer greater opportunity for effective customer need fulfillment than other outsourced services.     

Voluntary disclosure,greenhouse gas emissions and business performance: Assessing the first decade of reporting

This study explores the empirical relationships between GHG emissions and an extensive range of business performance measures for UK FTSE-350 listed firms over the first decade or so of such reporting. Despite the popular and policy generated environmental imperatives over this period—along with growing evidence of the corporate added-value of having an ‘environmental conscience’, voluntary disclosure of emissions has been slow to adopt by firms. The leading contribution is to present clear evidence of a non-linear relationship, initially increasing with firm performance and then decreasing. An extensive pattern of non-reporting of emissions is also observed over time, and prior literature has introduced questions of endogeneity existing between firm performance and emissions. Steps are taken to ensure confidence/robustness of the results to these concerns. Accordingly, a two-stage (Heckman-type) selection model is used to analyse the emissions-performance nexus conditional upon the firm choosing to report (i.e. treating the choice to report as being endogenously determined with firm performance). From this—in addition to confirming the robustness of the non-linear relationship—it can be observed that the decision to report emissions is not directly influenced by wider social/governance disclosure attitudes of a firm, thus suggesting that firms disassociate environmental responsibility from social responsibility.     

河豚鱼菜肴的最佳烹调方案

高品质生活是广大人民的普遍追求,随着人们生活水平的提高,人们的饮食结构也得到显著改善。河豚作为一种特殊的鱼类,具有很高的食用价值,是人们十分喜爱的美味佳肴。但由于河豚自身含有剧毒,不能简单烹调食用,因此,在具体烹调时需对其进行正确处理,在各烹调材料搭配上要合理有度,并在选材上也要以人工养殖河豚为主。本文对河豚鱼菜肴的最佳烹调方法进行研究。     

Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.     

创业企业何以提高创新绩效——基于创业学习与商业模式创新协同联动视角的QCA方法

以150个创业企业为样本，基于创业学习和商业模式创新理论，运用模糊集定性比较分析方法（fsQCA），探究经验学习、认知学习、新颖型商业模式创新和效率型商业模式创新对创新绩效的影响路径及机制。研究发现，存在新颖型商业模式创新等4条创新绩效产出关键路径；相较于效率型商业模式创新，新颖型商业模式创新在关键路径中更容易提高创新绩效；利用QCA方法证实了影响创业企业创新绩效的组态内部各要素之间的替代性。结论丰富了创新绩效产出内部机制，可为创业企业提高创新绩效提供指导和借鉴。     

MORE THAN A FEELING: CONFIDENCE,UNCERTAINTY, AND MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

Economists, observers, and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper, we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we give an overview of the recent literature on the nexus between sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty) and economic activity. Second, we review existing empirical measures of sentiment, in particular consumer confidence, stock market volatility (SMV) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), on monthly data for 27 countries, 1985–2016. Third, we identify some new stylized facts based on international evidence. While different measures are surprisingly lowly correlated on average in each country, they are typically highly positively correlated across countries, suggesting the existence of a global factor or sizeable international spillovers of sentiment. Consumer confidence has the closest co-movement with economic and financial variables, and most of the correlations are contemporaneous or forward-looking, consistent with the view that economic sentiment is indeed a driver of activity.