Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique

When managers are unable to use quantifiable time series data to make forecasts or decide on uncertainties, they can either rely on their own intuition and judgment or resort to the insights of others. The Delphi technique is a well-known forecasting technique that relies on the pooled perspectives of experts to predict uncertain quantities or the outcomes of events. This relies on polling the opinions of experts, aggregating these opinions, feeding them back to the responding experts along with their own estimates, and having them repeat their judgment calls until some level of consensus is reached. More recently, however, the opinions of many others who are not experts have been sought on a range of topics in a loose assembly of similar techniques bundled under the title of crowdsourcing. This article compares Delphi and crowdsourcing as prediction and estimation tools for managers. It notes their differences and similarities, and provides a simple tool for executives to use in deciding whether or not to use these tools, and if so, which tool or combination of them will work best in a given situation.     

Trends and cycles in small open economies: making the case for a general equilibrium approach

Economic research into the causes of business cycles in small open economies is almost always undertaken using a partial equilibrium model. This approach is characterized by two key assumptions. The first is that the world interest rate is unaffected by economic developments in the small open economy, an exogeneity assumption. The second assumption is that this exogenous interest rate combined with domestic productivity is sufficient to describe equilibrium choices. We demonstrate the failure of the second assumption by contrasting general and partial equilibrium approaches to the study of a cross-section of small open economies. In doing so, we provide a method for modeling small open economies in general equilibrium that is no more technically demanding than the small open economy approach while preserving much of the value of the general equilibrium approach.     

Organization technology and the media and purpose dimensions of organization communications

Data collected from field research using structured observations indicate for task communications significant relationships between organization technology certainty (using Perrow's typology) and use of verbal and sign media and no significant relationship with use of object and written media. These data also indicate relationships between technology certainty and stimulus and problem solving communications purposes. Directionality of communications moderates these technology-purpose relationships, even exposing some additional relationships. The last section of this article proposes a reconceptualized model of organization communications, considering technology certainty, member mobility, and leadership style as independent variables and directionality as a moderating variable.     

Preferences for compensation options

An analysis of preferences for compensation options was performed for a sample of employees in one organization. The organization was sampled at two points in time, approximately one year apart. The first sample was a stratified random sample of managerial and nonmanagerial employees (N = 101). The second sample contained a repeat sample of 48 individuals and a random sample of 80 individuals for a total (N = 128). The sampling procedure allowed for both cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis. The analysis of compensation preferences was based on the set of compensation items currently available to all employees. The results indicated a marked stability of preferences for the longitudinal sample (N = 48), and a systematic crosssectional variance in preferences at both time periods based on age and salary levels of employees. The results of this research lend credence to both cafeteria-style compensation programs and portable pensions.     

Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area business cycles, in addition to the coincident information conveyed by standard macroeconomic variables. We also point out that dynamic factor models lead to more accurate replication of business cycles than static ones.     

Industrial product innovation: An international comparison

This paper presents and discusses the data obtained from a study of 500 industrial innovations introduced in major industrialized countries from 1953 to 1973. The trends in industrial innovation of both the country of origin and the country of market introduction are examined based on the data presented.     

Processes and structures of networks: reflections on methodology

While social capital has been applied in a variety of contexts, the nature, role and application of social capital in an entrepreneurial context have not been extensively explored. The nature of social capital presents a conceptual puzzle in that it is said to be both glue, which forms the structure of networks, and at the same time a lubricant that facilitates the operation of networks. Using techniques of participant observation and interviews, this paper attempts to resolve this enigma. It finds that social capital is not a thing, but a process that creates a condition of social capital. The structural and relational aspects are found to be dimensions of this process. Interestingly, the data also demonstrates that there are successful etiquettes of social capital formation. These etiquettes provide the rules and framework for the interactions.     

Accuracy of management and security analysts' forecasts: Additional evidence

This paper provides further support for findings in studies by Basi, Carey, and Twark [2] and Ruland [5] which indicated no statistically significant superiority of management over analysts in forecasting earnings per share. These somewhat surprising findings are seen to flow from several possible sources. Lack of superior management forecasting performance may reflect (1) a considerable sharing of the forecast or forecast-related information by management with analysts, or (2) firm-specific data (to which management is more privy) may be less important in forecasting performance than data on economy-wide movements.     

Monitoring in service triads consisting of buyers, subcontractors and end customers

Organisations increasingly outsource service delivery to specialist subcontractors. These buyers, their subcontractors and their end customers operate in a triadic service relationship. In these triads, the buyer lacks direct control over service delivery and completely depends on the subcontractor for its performance towards its end customers. Subcontractors are confronted with two principals (buyer and end customer) who may have conflicting objectives.Although traditionally focusing on dyadic buyer–seller relationships rather than triads, Agency Theory provides valuable suggestions on the type of contract to be used and the type of monitoring to be employed. We adopt Agency Theory as a theoretical lens to look at the buyer–subcontractor–end customer triad and develop propositions on the design of contractual arrangements and monitoring activities. We use the results of two cases of service triads to provide some initial validation for these propositions.     

‘Though it is but a promise’: Business probity in Arnold Bennett's Anna of the Five Towns

Noting the increasing interest amongst business historians in the socio-cultural dimensions of business, this article presents a reading of Arnold Bennett's early twentieth-century novel Anna of the Five Towns. The purpose of the article is both to explore the evidential value of cultural representations, such as the novel, in relation to issues currently to the fore in business history, such as trust, and also to act as a means through which to examine some of the biases and assumptions present in the literature. Thus the article speaks also to issues of historiography.