Loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy

There is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity, while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry. To rationalize these facts we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where households’ utility depends on consumption deviations from a reference level below which loss aversion is displayed. State-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption generate competing effects on output and inflation. Contractions face the Central Bank with higher responsiveness of output to interest rate changes, as well as a flatter aggregate supply schedule.     

Do analysts add value when they most can? Evidence from corporate spin‐offs

This article investigates how securities analysts help investors understand the value of diversification. By studying the research that analysts produce about companies that have announced corporate spin‐offs, we gain unique insights into how analysts portray diversified firms to the investment community. We find that while analysts' research about these companies is associated with improved forecast accuracy, the value of their research about the spun‐off subsidiaries is more limited. For both diversified firms and their spun‐off subsidiaries, analysts' research is more valuable when information asymmetry between the management of these entities and investors is higher. These findings contribute to the corporate strategy literature by shedding light on the roots of the diversification discount and by showing how analysts' research enables investors to overcome asymmetric information. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of activity and geographic diversification on performance: Evidence from French financial institutions

Our paper studies the impact of activity and geographic diversification on financial institution's performance. These diversification strategies are complementary in generating performance and may provide important implications. Moreover, we investigate the interaction between these two strategies. Our dataset comprises 4532 years observations over the period of 2002 to 2012 and covers 412 French financial institutions. We find a negative relationship between diversification and performance. However, this relationship is significantly positive when institutions implement a dual diversification strategy. In this paper, we propose a classification of French financial institutions. For generalists’ banks and cooperative banks, we find similar results to those of the entire sample. Furthermore, for specialized financial institutions, the relationship is positive and significant. Our findings are robust to the potential endogeneity problem and to measures of diversification and performance.     

Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.     

Risk-based capital for credit insurers with business cycles and dynamic leverage

This paper develops a risk-based capital pricing model for credit insurance portfolios held by a vulnerable insurer. The model accounts for business cycles using a two-state Markov switching model, and allows for dynamic leverage adjustment by the insured firms. The new proposed model, which incorporates risk-based capital practice, is better for both the insurer and the insured firms. Based on the risk-adjusted performance metric, we found that the insurer is better off insuring short- and medium-term loans in expansion and steady states, while it is better off backing both short- and long-term loans in recessions. Our results also emphasize that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly impairs the creditworthiness of the insurer and insured firms.     

Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?

Using panel data of 19 OECD countries observed over 40 years and data on specific labor market reform episodes we conclude that labor market institutions matter for business cycle fluctuations. Spearman partial rank correlations reveal that more flexible institutions are associated with lower business cycle volatility. Turning to the analysis of reform episodes, wage bargaining reforms increase the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity and the volatility of unemployment. Employment protection reforms increase the volatility of employment and decrease the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity. Reforms reducing replacement rates make labor productivity more procyclical.     

Institutional duality and political strategies of foreign-invested firms in an emerging economy

This study investigates how the complex institutional environment surrounding foreign-invested firms (FIEs) affects their corporate political strategies (CPS) in China. Analyses of data on 442 FIEs operating in China show that the relative potency of dual institutional pressure from FIEs’ home and host countries shapes their strategic choices. Institutional factors at the country, region, and firm levels not only affect firms’ adoption of multiple firm-based tactics but also shape their collective-oriented associational activities. Moreover, participation in both foreign and domestic business associations enhances an FIE's adoption of firm-based political tactics, but joining domestic business associations has a stronger effect.     

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

In this paper, we explicitly introduce regional factors into a global dynamic factor model. We combine new open economy factor models (emphasizing global shocks) with the recent findings of regional importance in the business cycle synchronization literature. The analysis is applied to a large panel of domestic data for four small open economies. We find that global and regional shocks explain roughly 30 and 20 percent, respectively, of the business cycle variation in all countries. While global shocks have most impact on trade variables, regional shocks explain a relatively large share of the variation in cost variables.     

The determinants of FTA use in Southeast Asia: A firm-level analysis

The spread of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Southeast Asia has ignited a debate about their impact on enterprises including the business costs from the Asian ‘noodle bowl’ effect. This paper undertakes a comparative and firm-level analysis of the determinants of FTA use in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The likelihood of firms using important ASEAN+1 FTAs (e.g. the ASEAN-China FTA, the ASEAN-Japan FTA and ASEAN-Korea FTA) is positively associated with acquiring knowledge about FTAs, building technological capabilities, and membership in industrial clusters. Non-use of FTAs is explained by a lack of information about FTAs and the absence of FTAs with major trading partners. Key policy implications are the need to improve business support for FTAs, to conclude FTAs with major trading partners, and to create a database on FTA preference use.