Social Conflict and Gradual Political Succession: An Illustrative Model*

This paper studies the evolution of political institutions in the face of conflict. We examine institutional reform in a class of pivotal mechanisms—institutions that behave as if the resulting policy were determined by a “pivotal” decision maker drawn from the potential population of citizens and who holds full policy‐making authority at the time. A rule‐of‐succession describes the process by which pivotal decision makers in period t + 1 are, themselves, chosen by pivotal decision makers in period t. Two sources of conflict—class conflict, arising from differences in wealth, and ideological conflict, arising from differences in preferences—are examined. In each case, we characterize the unique Markov‐perfect equilibrium of the associated dynamic political game, and show that public decision‐making authority evolves monotonically downward in wealth and upward in ideological predisposition toward the public good. We then examine rules‐of‐succession when ideology and wealth exhibit correlation.     

Bundling as an optimal selling mechanism for a multiple-good monopolist

Multiple objects may be sold by posting a schedule consisting of one price for each possible bundle and permitting the buyer to select the price-bundle pair of his choice. We identify conditions that must be satisfied by any price schedule that maximizes revenue within the class of all such schedules. We then provide conditions under which a price schedule maximizes expected revenue within the class of all incentive compatible and individually rational mechanisms in the n-object case. We use these results to characterize environments, mainly distributions of valuations, where bundling is the optimal mechanism in the two and three good cases.     

Maximum Eigenvalue Test for Seasonal Cointegrating Ranks*

The maximum eigenvalue (ME) test for seasonal cointegrating ranks is presented using the approach of Cubadda [Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2001), Vol. 63, pp. 497–511], which is computationally more efficient than that of Johansen and Schaumburg [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 88, pp. 301–339]. The asymptotic distributions of the ME test statistics are obtained for several cases that depend on the nature of deterministic terms. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to evaluate the relative performances of the proposed ME test and the trace test, and we illustrate these tests using a monthly time series.     

Pitfalls in the estimation of a cost function that ignores allocative inefficiency: A Monte Carlo analysis

In the stochastic frontier literature, it is a widely held view that allocative inefficiency can be lumped together with technical inefficiency in the estimation of cost frontiers. Therefore, a one-sided error term in the cost function is believed to capture the cost of overall (technical plus allocative) inefficiency. In this paper we challenge that view through a detailed Monte Carlo investigation. The results show that failure to include the cost of allocative inefficiency explicitly in the cost function biases the estimates of: (i) the cost function parameters, (ii) returns to scale, (iii) input price elasticities, and (iv) cost-inefficiency.     

S频段800W固态功放的研制

采用功放管合成、电路模块合成及插箱整机合成相结合的三级合成方案，研制成功了一种S频段连续波800W固态功放，经测试在2025—2120MHz频段，功放连续波输出功率1dB压缩点大于59dBm（800W），增益大于68dB，功率附加效率25％，合成效率达到85％以上。     

The information content of the neutral rate of interest

The concept of the neutral rate of interest has recently received much attention from economists. In this paper, we estimate the neutral rate of interest in Poland. We show how it can yield important information for a central banker. In particular, estimation of the neutral rate can be helpful for monetary authorities seeking to stabilize inflation after a long process of disinflation. We also suggest possible explanations for the relatively high level of the neutral rate in Poland.     

A Recursive Thick Frontier Approach to Estimating Production Efficiency*

We introduce a new panel data estimation technique for production and cost functions, the recursive thick frontier approach (RTFA). RTFA has two advantages over existing econometric frontier methods. First, technical inefficiency is allowed to be dependent on the explanatory variables of the frontier model. Secondly, RTFA does not hinge on distributional assumptions on the inefficiency component of the error term. We show by means of simulation experiments that RTFA outperforms the popular stochastic frontier approach and the ‘within’ ordinary least squares estimator for realistic parameterizations of a productivity model. Although RTFAs formal statistical properties are unknown, we argue, based on these simulation experiments, that RTFA is a useful complement to existing methods.     

How noise matters

Recent advances in evolutionary game theory have introduced noise into decisionmaking to select in favor of certain equilibria in coordination games. Noisy decisionmaking is justified on bounded rationality grounds, and consequently the sources of noise are left unmodelled. This methodological approach can only be successful if the results do not depend too much on the nature of the noise process. This paper investigates invariance to noise of these results, both for the random matching paradigm that has characterized much of the recent literature and for a larger class of two-strategy population games where payoffs may vary non-linearly with the distribution of strategies among the population. Several parametrizations of noise reduction are investigated. The results show that a symmetry property of the noise process and, in the case of non-linear payoffs, bounds on the asymmetry of the payoff functions suffice to preserve the known stochastic stability results.     

Estimating the Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro-denominated Corporate Bonds

In this paper, we estimate the term structure of credit spreads on Euro-denominated corporate bonds with a modified version of the Duffee (1999) intensity-based model. The empirical analysis considers monthly observations for a sample of investment-grade euro-denominated corporate bonds analysed for rating classes. The model is estimated with a maximum likelihood – Kalman filter approach over different sample periods ranging from January 1999 to August 2006. The estimation results, in general, support the application of the theoretical model to the euro-denominated bond market and exhibit some interesting characteristics of this relatively recent market.