APPLYING A GENETIC ALGORITHM TO INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION OF EQUITY PORTFOLIOS: A SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE

This paper uses the genetic algorithm (GA) approach to generate a portfolio optimisation scenario of a South African investor who seeks to maximise return from investing in S&P500, FTSE100, NASDAQ, DOWJONES, CAC40 and the DAX from January 1, 2005, to January 31, 2008, but facing exchange rate risk. The GA searches for the optimal solution in the entire set of financial constraints without looking for partial derivatives of the utility function. Whereas most financial problems require a non‐linear and time‐varying model, the GA, with its survival principle of offspring chromosomes, is better suited to this type of problem than local optimisation methods. The performance of the GA is compared with two non‐linear models, namely the quadratic mean‐variance (QMV), which maximises the portfolio mean‐variance, and the quadratic variance minimisation (QVM), which minimises the portfolio variance. The results show that neither the QMV nor the QVM takes into account the domestic investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities and therefore does not provide any international diversification benefits. In addition, the bootstrapping scenario of 10,000 simulations reveals that neither the QMV nor the QVM outperforms the GA in terms of Sharpe ratio and flexibility in dealing with investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities denominated in foreign currencies.     

WATER BILL ESTIMATION WHEN PRICE IS CRYPTIC: EXPERIENCE FROM WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA

For water policy to be effective, policy makers must know how water users perceive and respond to changes in water prices. However, it is not uncommon for water prices faced by consumers to be unclear. In Windhoek, Namibia, the marginal and average water price is difficult to calculate from the information provided in users' utility bills. This paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to investigate price perceptions of water users in a setting with cryptic price information. Using self‐reported water charges as the dependent variable, the pricing model utilises reported utility characteristics and other factors that may affect perceived price. Low‐income standpipe water users report a weighted average monthly charges of N$24.68, whereas users in high income segments report N$521.34. This reflects differences in service levels, possible subsidies to low‐income users and potential errors in respondents' understanding of their water price. Average price per litre (N$11.78 for the low‐use segment; N$1.89 for the highest segment of Tier 1 water use) tends to be perceived as higher by those with lower water use even though average prices in the relevant range should generally be identical.     

Do People Accurately Anticipate Sanctions?

We provide lab data from four different games that allow us to study whether people have accurate expectations regarding monetary sanctions (punishment/reward) and nonmonetary sanctions (disapproval/approval). Although the strength of the sanction is always predicted with some error (particularly in the case of monetary sanctions), we observe that (i) most subjects anticipate correctly the sign of the average sanction, (ii) expectations covary with sanctions, (iii) the average expectation is very often not significantly different than the average actual sanction, and (iv) the errors exhibit no systematic bias, except in those situations where rewards are frequent. In this line, we find some evidence that punishment is better anticipated than rewards.     

Private Goods,Public Goods,and Common Pools with Homo Reciprocans

Familiar inefficiencies arise with competing interests over private goods in Stackelberg and investment games. Private good experiments reveal whether reciprocity enhances cooperative outcomes. Familiar social dilemmas arise with voluntary provision of public goods and voluntary appropriation from common pools. Experiments with pairs of payoff‐equivalent provision and appropriation games reveal whether reciprocity is more or less effective in ameliorating under‐provision or over‐appropriation. Experiments with asymmetric provision and appropriation games also yield insight into the effects of the Indian caste system on inefficiency from social dilemmas. Experiments with three types of games, with a private good, public good or common pool, provide diagnostic tests of the homo reciprocans model.     

浅析金融危机下我国出口企业对信用证欺诈的防范

金融危机下进口商的信用和支付能力普遍下降,信用证对出口商收汇安全的优越性凸显出来。但任何一种结算方式都不能完全防止欺诈的发生。如何防范信用证欺诈,充分发挥信用证的优越性已成为众多出口企业和银行关注的话题。本文介绍了我国出口贸易中常见的信用证欺诈方式,提出了一些防范信用证欺诈的有效措施。     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility： Evidence from China

This paper investigates the link between hot money and business cycle volatility in China from January 1997 to December 2009. Using the structural vector error correction model we find a considerable degree of long-run cointegration and bidirectional causality effects between hot money and business cycle volatility. The speculative shocks are found to temporarily promote China＇s economic growth, but also to exacerbate business cycle volatility. The liquidity shock stemming from hot money is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the significantly enhanced fluctuation in business cycles during the most recent global financial crisis period This could be detrimental to the smooth operation of financial markets. Therefore, informing future policies, it is critical for policy-makers to take precautions against the speculative factors.     

Who Are the Potential Smokers of Smuggled Cigarettes?

Although smuggled cigarettes have been a prevalent problem and a severe challenge to public health and welfare around the world, little is known about the behavior associated with smoking smuggled cigarettes and the issue is difficult to study due to data limitations. By means of a population‐based tobacco survey conducted in Taiwan, the present paper applies a latent class model to identify potential smokers who are either currently or will at some point in the future be consuming smuggled cigarettes. This methodology, in contrast to the traditional discrete models, allows potential smokers who are more inclined to smoke smuggled cigarettes to be endogenously classified. The empirical results indicate that socio‐demographic factors do increase the inclination to smoke smuggled cigarettes after unobserved heterogeneity has been accounted for.     

Brand familiarity and product knowledge in customization

I adopt Hotelling's model with two firms. Each consumer has a most preferred variety and possesses a certain level of category‐specific knowledge. When a firm offers customization, consumers must interact with the firm to create their products. Consumers familiar with the brand can do this seamlessly, whereas consumers unfamiliar with the brand have difficulty expressing their individual needs (the difficulty decreases with consumers' knowledge). The firms first simultaneously decide whether to customize, then engage in price competition. Although customization makes the products less differentiated, the frictions caused by consumer co‐design activities relax price competition. Customization by one of the firms occurs in equilibrium.     

Quand les analystes ajustent‐ils leurs évaluations en fonction du biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels ? Conséquences de la feuille de route des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels et enjeux motivant les analystes

Les études précédentes indiquent que les analystes n’ajustent pas totalement leurs évaluations en fonction du biais général à la baisse des annonces de résultats prévisionnels faites par les directions d’entreprises. Les auteurs rapportent les résultats de deux expériences visant à déterminer comment la feuille de route des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels et les enjeux motivant les analystes expliquent de concert la mesure dans laquelle ces derniers ajustent leurs évaluations en fonction du biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels. Ces résultats d’expérience semblent indiquer que les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de l’exactitude ajustent leurs évaluations selon la feuille de route de la direction en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels biaisés à la baisse lorsque le biais est relativement modeste (un cent), mais que les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de leur relation avec la direction s’en abstiennent. Au surplus, la différence dans l’ajustement est plus importante lorsque la feuille de route de l’entreprise en matière de biais est irrégulière que lorsqu’elle est régulière. Aussi, lorsque le biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels est plus important que moins (deux cents par rapport à un cent), les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de la relation avec la direction procèdent à un ajustement partiel, paraissant ainsi rechercher un équilibre entre exactitude et volonté de plaire à la direction. Ces constatations ont des répercussions pour les investisseurs, les autorités de réglementation et l’interprétation des études précédentes.