Tax and subsidy incidence equivalence theories: experimental evidence from competitive markets

A basic tenet in microeconomics is tax incidence equivalence, which holds that the burden of a unit tax on buyers and sellers is independent of who actually pays the tax. By contrast, policymakers and the public often mistake statutory incidence for economic incidence. Using competitive laboratory markets, I test both tax incidence equivalence and an analogous theorem for subsidies. For sufficiently large markets, the results show strong support for both theories; there is little to no evidence, even in the short run, of the popular misperception that statutory incidence equals economic incidence. In smaller markets in which competitive forces are weaker and relative bargaining strengths may play a role, the evidence for tax incidence equivalence is weaker as minor price discrepancies may persist between markets.     

Nonlinear Correlograms and Partial Autocorrelograms*

This paper proposes neural network‐based measures of predictability in conditional mean, and then uses them to construct nonlinear analogues to autocorrelograms and partial autocorrelograms. In contrast to other measures of nonlinear dependence that rely on nonparametric estimation of densities or multivariate integration, our autocorrelograms are simple to calculate and appear to work well in relatively small samples.     

Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes

This paper uses a logit model to test whether voters will alter their support for incumbents in state level elections, specifically gubernatorial and state house and senate elections, when local (i.e., county) economic conditions are observed. The results signify that voters do hold the incumbent party responsible for economic conditions. Furthermore, voters tend to place more emphasis on unemployment levels than on real personal income indicating that incumbent politicians might want to engage in policies that put people to work rather than on policies that raise income. The results also suggest that voters did not hold their state house and senate representative as responsible for local economic conditions as they did the governor.     

A matrix exponential spatial specification

We introduce the matrix exponential as a way of modelling spatially dependent data. The matrix exponential spatial specification (MESS) simplifies the log-likelihood allowing a closed form solution to the problem of maximum-likelihood estimation, and greatly simplifies the Bayesian estimation of the model. The MESS can produce estimates and inferences similar to those from conventional spatial autoregressive models, but has analytical, computational, and interpretive advantages. We present maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to the estimation of this spatial model specification along with methods of model comparisons over different explanatory variables and spatial specifications.     

The Effects of Cannabis Use on Wages of Prime‐age Males*

This paper uses a data set collected among inhabitants of Amsterdam, to study whether wages of prime‐age male workers are affected by cannabis use. The analysis shows that recent cannabis use has a negative effect on wages. The size of the wage effect depends on the age of onset. The earlier the start of cannabis use the larger the negative wage impact.     

Causes of Changes in Agricultural Employment in Slovenia: Evidence from Micro‐data

This paper analyses labour adjustment in and out of agriculture during transition to a market economy. A multinomial logit model is used to determine the factors that affect these processes. The results show that elderly, less educated and full‐time employees on a farm are more likely to continue with farming. Inflow of labour into agriculture is largely associated with the unemployment and retirement of farm household members. Age, education and investment in human capital are the key factors that improve the quality, mobility and flexibility of labour, which is crucial for efficient labour adjustment at the micro‐level and sector level. Better‐educated individuals are more likely to enter into employment in non‐agricultural, particularly service, activities.     

INTRODUCTION: MINING HISTORY IN CONTEXT

This article introduces the theme and the articles in this special issue of the Australian Economic History Review on mining history. It puts the subject of the articles in the context of current changes in the global mining industry and notes the themes that may be explored in further research.     

Large market games with demand uncertainty

We consider a market game with a continuum of consumers, where the measure of each type is stochastic. Nature selects the set of active consumers, who make bids and offers on ?−1 spot market trading posts. Existence of type-symmetric Nash equilibrium is proven. When facing price uncertainty, best responses are unique, and a Nash equilibrium to the sell-all game is typically not a Nash equilibrium to the original game. Under plausible circumstances, consumers strictly prefer to be on one side of the market.     

On the duality between prior beliefs and trading demands

In an abstract model with asymmetric information, we show that there is a duality relationship between the prior beliefs and trading demands of bets for any given individual. Then we aggregate all the agents to obtain a second duality relationship between common prior beliefs and trading possibilities. We easily derive from these relationships the no trade theorem and its converse. General efficiency results can be obtained. Moreover, our framework is sufficiently general to cover special cases proved previously (for example, Econometrica 62 (1994) 1327; Discussion Paper 83, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 1995; J. Econom. Theory 91 (2000) 127; Games Econom. Behav. 24 (1998) 172. Yet, our arguments are both simple and intuitive.     

Employment with connections: Negative network effects

In less developed countries, it is widely observed that employers hire workers through employee referrals. In this paper, we show an extension of this kind of networks that may decrease applicants' payoffs while a diversification of the networks can raise referred applicants' payoffs. We also discuss the effect of the extension of interlinked contracts on farmers' wages.