A matrix exponential spatial specification

We introduce the matrix exponential as a way of modelling spatially dependent data. The matrix exponential spatial specification (MESS) simplifies the log-likelihood allowing a closed form solution to the problem of maximum-likelihood estimation, and greatly simplifies the Bayesian estimation of the model. The MESS can produce estimates and inferences similar to those from conventional spatial autoregressive models, but has analytical, computational, and interpretive advantages. We present maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to the estimation of this spatial model specification along with methods of model comparisons over different explanatory variables and spatial specifications.     

The Effects of Cannabis Use on Wages of Prime‐age Males*

This paper uses a data set collected among inhabitants of Amsterdam, to study whether wages of prime‐age male workers are affected by cannabis use. The analysis shows that recent cannabis use has a negative effect on wages. The size of the wage effect depends on the age of onset. The earlier the start of cannabis use the larger the negative wage impact.     

Causes of Changes in Agricultural Employment in Slovenia: Evidence from Micro‐data

This paper analyses labour adjustment in and out of agriculture during transition to a market economy. A multinomial logit model is used to determine the factors that affect these processes. The results show that elderly, less educated and full‐time employees on a farm are more likely to continue with farming. Inflow of labour into agriculture is largely associated with the unemployment and retirement of farm household members. Age, education and investment in human capital are the key factors that improve the quality, mobility and flexibility of labour, which is crucial for efficient labour adjustment at the micro‐level and sector level. Better‐educated individuals are more likely to enter into employment in non‐agricultural, particularly service, activities.     

INTRODUCTION: MINING HISTORY IN CONTEXT

This article introduces the theme and the articles in this special issue of the Australian Economic History Review on mining history. It puts the subject of the articles in the context of current changes in the global mining industry and notes the themes that may be explored in further research.     

Large market games with demand uncertainty

We consider a market game with a continuum of consumers, where the measure of each type is stochastic. Nature selects the set of active consumers, who make bids and offers on ?−1 spot market trading posts. Existence of type-symmetric Nash equilibrium is proven. When facing price uncertainty, best responses are unique, and a Nash equilibrium to the sell-all game is typically not a Nash equilibrium to the original game. Under plausible circumstances, consumers strictly prefer to be on one side of the market.     

On the duality between prior beliefs and trading demands

In an abstract model with asymmetric information, we show that there is a duality relationship between the prior beliefs and trading demands of bets for any given individual. Then we aggregate all the agents to obtain a second duality relationship between common prior beliefs and trading possibilities. We easily derive from these relationships the no trade theorem and its converse. General efficiency results can be obtained. Moreover, our framework is sufficiently general to cover special cases proved previously (for example, Econometrica 62 (1994) 1327; Discussion Paper 83, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 1995; J. Econom. Theory 91 (2000) 127; Games Econom. Behav. 24 (1998) 172. Yet, our arguments are both simple and intuitive.     

Employment with connections: Negative network effects

In less developed countries, it is widely observed that employers hire workers through employee referrals. In this paper, we show an extension of this kind of networks that may decrease applicants' payoffs while a diversification of the networks can raise referred applicants' payoffs. We also discuss the effect of the extension of interlinked contracts on farmers' wages.     

Practical Problems with Reduced‐rank ML Estimators for Cointegration Parameters and a Simple Alternative*

Johansen's reduced‐rank maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for cointegration parameters in vector error correction models is known to produce occasional extreme outliers. Using a small monetary system and German data we illustrate the practical importance of this problem. We also consider an alternative generalized least squares (GLS) system estimator which has better properties in this respect. The two estimators are compared in a small simulation study. It is found that the GLS estimator can indeed be an attractive alternative to ML estimation of cointegration parameters.     

Unemployment duration and economic incentives—a quasi random-assignment approach

We investigate how economic incentives and spell duration affect hazard rates out of insured unemployment. We take into account that insured unemployment not always ends in employment, but also in disability, training programs, or benefit sanctions. Our empirical basis is Norwegian register data containing variation in economic incentives and spell duration similar to that of random-assignment experiments. We find that the employment and benefit-sanction hazards are negatively affected by the unemployment insurance replacement ratio, but that the effects vary considerably among individuals. There is negative duration dependence in the employment hazard and positive duration dependence in the disability hazard.     

Prison Labor: The Local Effects of Ohio Prison Industries

Prison labor has both positive and negative effects. Keeping prisoners active, training and socializing them to be productive citizens after prison, and helping to pay for their incarceration are some of the positives. Potential crowding out of free labor and industry is the major potential negative. This paper addresses the quantitative financial and employment consequences on local free labor and industry of prison industries in Ohio using an input–output model for Ohio. Based on the analysis, prison industries employment in Ohio has negligible to positive employment consequences for the Ohio economy and partially offsets the incarceration cost of the inmates who participate – providing between 5 and 10 percent of the incarceration cost in net cash flow and induced tax revenues.Presented at the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, March 9–13, 2005.