The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector: A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations. We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10% in the energy efficiency. We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors, namely rail, road, water, and air travel. The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes. This is particularly true for the air transportation sector, which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1% and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6% because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services. We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment. The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10% generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan, while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector. Furthermore, to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects, we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions. These included economic instruments in the form of energy, environmental, and carbon taxes, household transport consumption structure adjustments, and energy structure adjustments. This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings, emissions reduction, and economic benefits.     

Ranking Crop Yield Models: A Comment

This comment discusses key specification issues that may have affected the performance and, therefore, the ranking of parametric models that were compared in a recent AJAE article. A procedure to obtain the most flexible parametric model specification possible, given the particular probability distribution function on which the model is based is presented. These specifications also allow for standardized and, therefore, more valid comparisons across parametric models that are based on different probability distributions. Finally, the comment cautions against generalization of the rankings in that AJAE article and recommends that these more flexible specifications be adopted in future comparisons and applications.     

世界连接CGE模型方法、研制与应用

随着世界经济一体化和空间经济学的日益发展,系统模型方法在国家或区域间经济联动方面的扩展和深化研究正在显现出巨大的应用价值。本文首先开发一个世界连接可计算一般均衡模型,科学揭示各经济体的运行特征,为定量剖析世界范围内各经济体的经济增长、结构变动方面提供一个系统分析框架：一方面在模型的理论框架中,分析了世界CGE模型各个模块的构建思想和对应的主要方程及其特征;另一方面建立了世界连接社会核算矩阵。然后通过动态模拟分析,检验链接模式和国家间经济联系,以及应用于各经济体政策变化的综合影响评价。     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

Understanding organizational citizenship behavior from a cultural perspective: An empirical study within the context of hotels in Mainland China

Scholarly concerns in organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) have increased dramatically over the past two decades. Nevertheless, there are significant issues yet to be addressed and resolved, one of which relates to the influences of cultural values on such voluntary behaviors. In view of the importance of OCB in meliorating hotel service and cultivating customer loyalty, the current study seeks to investigate a possible mechanism through which Chinese values (CVs) may function on employee citizenship behaviors within the hotels in Mainland China. The research questions focus on whether CVs have a direct impact on OCB and its verified antecedents, leader–member exchange (LMX) and employee organizational commitment (OC). Eventually, the research findings have verified the conceptual model and confirmed all the postulated linkages among the constructs under study.     

Empowerment and resident support for tourism in rural Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): the case of Pomerania,Poland

Despite empowerment being a crucial component of sustainable tourism, few scholars have quantitatively operationalized empowerment and looked at how it applies to rural societies within the post-communist European Union (EU) member states. Knowing the high priority of sustainable rural development goals within the EU, empowering residents within these post-communist societies has become a pertinent issue especially where those societies appear more reluctant to engaging in democratic ways of decision-making. In response to this gap, this study tests the cross-cultural validity of the Resident Empowerment through Tourism Scale, and then evaluates how empowerment predicts residents’ support for tourism within the municipality of Choczewo, Pomerania, Poland. Using a theoretical perspective that blends Social Exchange Theory with Weber's Theory of Formal and Substantive Rationality, these non-economic empowerment dimensions are coupled with a measure of resident perceptions of economically benefiting from tourism to see if rural residents in Choczewo, Poland, are more swayed by the economic or non-economic benefits of tourism. Results show that residents within this Central and Eastern Europe setting are more influenced by the pride and self-esteem boost associated with psychological empowerment and the perceptions of increased community cohesion (i.e. social empowerment) than the economic promises of tourism.     

Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)

Tourism is one of the more important sectors for the economy of Galicia (northwest of Spain). The aim of our study is to quantify determinants of Galician domestic tourism demand and their impacts. Additionally, confidence intervals for these impacts are calculated by bootstrapping data. The results show that income, Eastern vacations and the celebration of the Holy Year of the Apostle Saint James have had a relevant positive impact on tourism. There is also a significant positive connection between a meteorological phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and tourism demand. On the other hand, the differential rates of inflation between Galicia and the rest of Spain and the 2008 economic crisis have had a negative effect.     

Determinants and outcome of career competencies: Perspectives of hotel managers in China

This study aims to explore the determinants and outcome of career competencies. Based on the notion that organizations and individuals have respective obligations in the career management of employees’, this study developed perceived “organizational career management’ (OCM) and “career commitment” as determinants and career satisfaction as an outcome of career competencies. Data were collected in the state-owned hotels in China, and structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed relationships. The findings indicate that both perceived OCM and career commitments have positive, direct effects on career competencies. The findings of this study may benefit both hotels and hotel employees by providing valuable implications.     

基于解释结构模型的茶叶品牌发展策略——以陕西汉中茶产业为例

以解释结构模型为工具,结合具体案例,总结了影响茶叶品牌发展的因素,如企业经营模式、市场信息、企业广告促销、政府的宣传引导、目标市场和市场定位、旅游资源开发、茶叶品质、地区性标准、茶叶物流体系、农业种植规范性、茶叶加工技术、良种推广等。分析了其相互影响关系,建立茶叶品牌发展的解释结构模型。并以此为基础,探索了改变茶叶企业的经营模式、健全现代物流体系、建立有效的市场信息平台和信息系统、建立地区性标准、建设政府平台等茶叶品牌发展的策略性问题。