河北省工业碳排放情景预测与节能减排潜力分析

通过计算河北省工业能源终端消费的碳排放量,对2015年和2020年工业CO2排放的三种目标情景进行了预测。在此基础上,根据河北省有关规划设定的目标,分析了河北省六大高耗能行业的节能减排潜力,指出这些行业分别处于不同的节能减排难度空间。最后,根据各高耗能行业的节能减排难度,设计了单边突破、渐进式提升、跨越式发展和自我提升等节能减排路径。     

传统能源及碳交易价格与新能源股价——基于VAR和CAPM-GARCH模型的分析

文章构建VAR模型和CAPM-GARCH模型,分析检验了2010年7月初至2013年底期间传统能源和碳排放权交易价格对国内新能源上市公司股价波动的影响及新能源股票收益率的波动特点,研究发现:国内煤价对新能源公司股价有显著的正向影响,而国际油价的影响不显著;碳排放权交易价格也是引起新能源投资价值从而上市公司股价变动的重要因素;新能源公司股价指数对高科技股价指数并不敏感,反映出国内新能源上市公司科技含量不足,资本市场关注更多的是新能源的概念而非技术优势;国内新能源股票整体的系统风险在1.125~1.131之间,利好消息比利空消息能引起新能源股票收益率更大的波动。     

Environmental Product Differentiation and Environmental Awareness

In this paper, we have considered a duopolistic model of environmental product differentiation with two types of consumers (green and brown) to analyze how environmental awareness affects the environment. “Green” consumers value the physical and environmental attributes of the good they purchase while “brown” consumers only value the physical attributes. We find that more environmental awareness may not be good news for the environment as the firm that produces the good without environmental attributes may increase its sales. The result depends on the degree of product differentiation and the cost to achieve it. Social welfare can also be inversely related to environmental awareness if the negative environmental effect dominates the positive market effect.      

Competition and the location of overseas assembly

Abstract. How does international competition affect overseas outsourcing? To address this question, this paper studies production decisions in the U.S.'s overseas assembly program (OAP). In this setting, a number of regularities emerge. First, prior participation is highly correlated with current participation, which suggests that sunk costs influence outsourcing choices. Second, increases in own‐country costs and declines in competitor‐country costs reduce participation probabilities. In addition, these persistence and cost effects are much larger for outsourcing in developing countries. Finally, outsourcing responses appear to reflect differences in 'market thickness,’ as cost sensitivity generally rises with competitor presence.     

"三二分段"中高职衔接招生考试制度探讨与研究

"三二分段"中高职衔接招生考试制度已成为高职院校主要的招生考试制度之一,该考试制度可以协调中职与高职教育的发展,是构建现代职业教育体系的重要途径. 但是,在其实践的过程中仍然存在考试制度趋同于普通高考等较多的问题. 研究以天津市为例,就这些问题进行了深入的探讨和分析,提出了一些具有可行性的建议.     

Estimating aggregate autoregressive processes when only macro data are available

The aggregation of individual random AR(1) models generally leads to an AR(∞$\infty$) process. We provide two consistent estimators of aggregate dynamics based on either a parametric regression or a minimum distance approach for use when only macro data are available. Notably, both estimators allow us to recover some moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive parameter. Both estimators perform very well in our Monte-Carlo experiment, even with finite samples.     

The Effect of Protest Votes on the Estimates of WTP for Use Values of Recreational Sites

Contingent valuation studies are often characterized by a considerable number of protest responses, which may cause selectivity bias on the final estimates for WTP. Sample selection models can detect and – if necessary – correct selectivity bias. In economic applications where the relevant dependent variable is continuous, sample selection models are generally estimated using Heckman's 2-step method rather than the FIML estimator. Either method has its own drawback: computational complexity for the FIML method, susceptibility to collinearity problems for the 2-step method. Using data on valuation of forest resources for recreational use, we analyse the performance of the two estimators. In this application, given the presence of some collinearity, the FIML is preferred to the 2-step method. A procedure is outlined to deal with selectivity problems in similar settings.     

Carbon Trading with Imperfectly Observable Emissions

The Kyoto Protocol foresees emission trading but does not yet specify verification of (uncertain) emissions. This paper analyses a setting in which parties can meet their emission targets by reducing emissions, by investing in monitoring (reducing uncertainty of emissions) or by (bilaterally) trading permits. We derive the optimality conditions and carry out various numerical simulations. Our applications suggest that including uncertainty could increase compliance costs for the USA, Japan and the European Union. Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union might be able to gain from trading due to higher permit prices. Emissions trading could also lower aggregate uncertainty on emissions.     

Beyond Flying Geese: The Expansion of East Asia's Electronics Trade

The flying geese (FG) hypothesis, which asserts the sequential catching‐up processes of the latecomers, holds well in the past. Yet a simultaneous boom within the electronics industry across East Asia casts doubt on the applicability of the hypothesis. By using the RCA and NET indices, the paper finds that the FG pattern shows in the electronics industry as a whole, but not always so at the disaggregated level. This suggests that the FG formation may not appear in other industries, if they are involved in international production fragmentation or have differentiated products, and if certain latecomers have become new leaders.     

Two new proofs of Afriat’s theorem

Summary. We provide two new, simple proofs of Afriats celebrated theorem stating that a finite set of price-quantity observations is consistent with utility maximization if, and only if, the observations satisfy a variation of the Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference known as the Generalized Axiom of Revealed PreferenceReceived: 12 June 2003, Revised: 9 October 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, C60.Correspondence to: A. Fostel