日本碳交易的机制与成效

随着国际社会对气候问题重视的不断加深,二氧化碳排放权交易日益受到各国的关注,碳交易在全球迅速发展。日本碳交易的发展存在着诸多的困难与不确定性,但是,日本凭借自身的外交、节能减排技术等有利条件,不仅在积极推动国际碳交易发展中加强了国际关系,而且,通过不断完善碳交易机制,创建碳交易平台,促进国内外的碳交易制度的完善,取得了一定的环境和经济效益。     

Renewable energy and low-carbon policy spillover effects on natural gas demand

Recent legislation intended to increase the use of renewable energy sources and lower the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from energy has changed the structure of energy markets. The effect of these policies on carbon-intensive fuel sources is rather obvious. For natural gas, though, the effect is not immediately clear. This letter uses a structural model of natural gas demand to uncover whether these policies have led to increased demand because natural gas is a relatively clean source of energy that couples well with renewables or if these policies have crowded out natural gas on net.     

Not seeing the carbon for the trees? Why area-based targets for establishing new woodlands can limit or underplay their climate change mitigation benefits

Area-based targets for afforestation are a frequent and prominent component of policy discourses on forestry, land use and climate change emissions abatement. Such targets imply an expected contribution of afforestation to the net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, yet the nature of afforestation undertaken and its geographical distribution means that there is considerable uncertainty over the eventual emission reductions outcomes. This uncertainty is reduced if the net carbon balance is calculated for all potential afforestation sites, considering climate, soil characteristics and the possible types of afforestation (species and management regimes). To quantify the range of possible emissions outcomes for area-based afforestation targets, a new spatial analysis method was implemented. This improved the integration of spatial data on antecedent land use with mapped outputs from forest models defining the suitability and productivity of eleven forestry management alternatives. This above ground carbon data was then integrated with outputs from the ECOSSE (Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils – Sequestration and Emissions) model which simulates the soil carbon dynamics. The maps and other model output visualisations combining above and below ground carbon highlight where net carbon surpluses and deficits are likely to occur, how long they persist after afforestation and their relationships with antecedent land use, soils, weather conditions and afforestation management strategies. Using more productive land classes delivers more net sequestration per hectare and could mean greater carbon storage than anticipated by emissions reduction plans. Extensive establishment of lower yielding trees on low-quality ground, with organo-mineral soils could, though, result in net emissions that persist for decades. From the spatial analysis, the range of possible outcomes for any target area of planting is substantial, meaning that outcomes are highly sensitive to policy and implementation decisions on the mix of forestry systems preferred and to spatial targeting or exclusions (both at regional and local scales). The paper highlights the importance of retaining the existing presumption against planting of deep peat areas, but also that additional incentives or constraints may be needed to achieve the aggregate rates of emission mitigation implied by policy commitments. Supplementary carbon storage tonnage targets for new forestry would introduce a floor for carbon sequestration outcomes, but would still allow for flexibility in achieving an appropriate balance in the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and the many other objectives that new woodlands are expected to deliver.     

东北地区土壤活性有机碳对水热梯度变化的反映S152.4+2S153.6

基于样区20年气象资料统计结果和2006年土壤有机碳实测值,分析了东北样区内土壤活性有机碳各组分的空间分布格局及其与年均温(t)、降雨量(p)、有效积温和p/t(降雨量/年均温)之间的关系。结果表明:样区内土壤活性有机碳各组分沿纬度呈现出南低北高的分布趋势;活性有机碳各组分与土壤有机之间具有显著的正相关性;活性有机碳组分之间具有较强的相关性;活性有机碳各组分与气候因素之间存在良好的相关性。活性有机碳各组分与年均温之间的相关性大于活性有机碳各组分与降雨量之间的相关性。     

河南省化石能源利用及工业生产过程碳排放的估算——基于2000～2009年数据的实证

为了探求河南省化石能源消耗及工业生产过程对省域碳循环影响,利用ORNL和EEA提出的区域碳排放和碳吸收定量模型,估算并分析了2000～2009年河南省域碳均衡动态变化.结果表明:2000～2009年河南省碳排放量为119295.76×104t,其中化石燃料排放量占碳排放总规模92.3％,工业生产过程碳排放为7.7％;煤...     

现代工业型与传统资源型城市能源消耗碳排放的对比分析——以无锡市与包头市为例

以现代工业型与传统资源型城市为研究对象,选取包头市与无锡市为代表进行对比,采用对数平均权重分解法对能源消耗引起的碳排放量进行分解,探究两种类型城市碳排放特征与驱动因素的异同。研究认为：①两种类型城市经济发展同碳排放量协同增长,碳排放效率逐年减小,离绝对减排的目标相差较远。新型工业城市具有高GDP低碳排放的特点,且碳排放量趋于稳定;传统资源型城市具有低GDP高碳排放的特点,碳排放强度、减排空间和潜力均大于前者,且碳排放量有进一步增大的潜力。②以煤为主的能源消费结构在短期内很难得到有效改善,使得能源结构调整收效不大;能源效率的提高对碳排放量起到了微弱的抑制作用;经济发展对碳排放贡献一直保持高位。③发展方式转变和产业结构提升,是工业城市尤其是资源型工业城市发展低碳经济的主要路径。     

城镇化中能源消费与二氧化碳排放研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

文章扩展了STIRPAT模型,使用1995-2011年中国30个省级面板数据,研究中国城镇化进程在全国以及区域层面上对能源消耗的需求变化与二氧化碳排放的影响效应。研究结果表明:在全国层面上,城镇化增加了对能源消费的刚性需求且对二氧化碳排放具有显著的正向影响。同时,城镇化对二氧化碳排放量影响有明显的区域差异:在东部地区,城镇化水平的提高增加了二氧化碳排放量,但在中西部地区,城镇化水平的提高减少了二氧化碳排放。基于以上结论,文章探讨了未来中国城镇发展的相关对策:适当控制土地城镇化发展速度,积极探索低碳城镇化发展模式,培养市民良好的低碳生活方式,优化与调整地区产业结构与能源消费结构。     

基于个体为本模型的中国碳排放核算模型构建

为合理测算中国碳排放总量, 提出了以单个人为基础的碳排放核算模型。个体碳排放量受其物质资本与人力资本、消费倾向与投资倾向影响,而计算中国碳排放总量还应考虑人口增长的影响。对个体资本投资倾向提出合理假设,进而构建人口增长模型。最后,根据各省GDP分布情况,赋予模型一个初始财富值,核算出中国碳排放总量。     

便利收益下碳排放动态套期保值效果

随机的碳排放价格变化直接导致资产组合的投资风险加剧,影响碳排放现货与期货资产的投资组合策略。依靠商品期货价格的期限结构,本文提出了一种新的在便利收益下动态套期保值比率及其套期保值效果评价方法。动态套期保值比率是由现货和便利收益的波动率、协方差及其相关系数、距离到期日时间、便利收益均值回复速度等参数存在紧密关联性。为了有效地规避碳排放现货价格剧烈波动所引发的市场风险,市场参与者利用便利收益的历史信息优化调整期货与现货的对冲比例,确定最优化的套期保值比率,可以有效规避现货资产的市场风险,实现资产投资组合最佳的投资收益。     

低碳约束对产业集聚的门槛效应分析

产业集聚作为重要的产业组织形式,其影响因素一直是理论界研究的重点,但鲜有学者直接研究低碳约束对产业集聚的影响。基于2000-2012年中国内地30个省（市、自治区）的数据,利用门槛回归方法,从人均收入和人力资本两个角度,检验了低碳约束对产业集聚的门槛效应。收入门槛的检验结果表明,在中、低收入阶段,低碳约束抑制产业集聚,而在高收入阶段,低碳约束则显著促进地区产业集聚;人力资本门槛的检验结果表明,在高人力资本阶段,低碳约束能够显著带动地区产业集聚,在中低人力资本阶段则相反。