融资约束与政治关系——来自深市中小板的证据

本文以2005年至2007年深市中小板上市公司的数据为样本,在控制了相关财务状况、治理结构、行业等因素影响的基础上,对企业投资支出、融资约束和政治关系之间的关系进行实证检验。结果发现:民营中小企业投资支出与内部经营活动现金流显著正相关,原因是民营中小企业面临较强的外部融资约束;无政治关系的民营中小企业与具有政治关系的民营中小企业相比,表现出更强的融资约束,说明政治关系能够缓解中小企业的融资困境,在企业的融资过程中作为一种非正规的替代机制,降低了中小企业的外部融资压力。     

商业银行现金持有量与宏观经济不确定性关系研究——基于面板数据的实证检验

本文研究了宏观经济不确定性对中国商业银行现金持有水平的影响。论文首先构建了一个GARCH模型得到代理变量来度量宏观经济不确定性,然后利用中国银行业2000～2009年的面板数据,实证检验了宏观经济不确定性对中国银行业现金持有水平的影响情况。实证结果表明:宏观经济不确定性对银行现金持有水平影响显著,当宏观经济不确定性增加、经济形势前景不明时,商业银行现金持有水平显著降低。     

DYNAMIC OUTPUT RESPONSE REVISITED: THE INDIAN CASH CROPS

Diverse instruments have been used to encourage developing agriculture. In the process, billions of dollars have been spent on providing incentives to peasants. Given scarce resources, an important concern has been the issue of what policy instruments to emphasize. In this regard, useful policy information can be gleaned from the role of expected profits (revenue and input prices), assets (irrigation and infrastructure), and relevant risks, in evoking peasant response. Using panel data for the period 1967/1968 to 1999/2000 pertaining to seven major Indian cash crops cultivated across 14 major states, we find strong evidence of a differential producer response in the post‐liberalization phase, although the important variables per se are much the same. Our results suggest that the preferred policy ought to emphasize availability of irrigation, affordable fertilizer, and rural infrastructure, rather than incessant increases in output prices.     

季度现金流量的信息含量研究

本文选择沪深两市共85家在2004年4月28日公布季度报表的A股上市公司为样本,采用事件法检验累计报酬率与非预期现金流量的关系。结果发现,我国的证券市场对于季度现金流量信息反应较弱,投资者基本上不关注季度现金流量信息。根据未预期盈余对样本进行分组,重新检验了市场对于不同盈余公司的现金流信息的市场反应,发现市场对于好消息公司的现金流信息的反应比坏消息公司更为敏感。     

基于随机久期的商业银行价值优化研究

通过分析商业银行价值的本质,比较企业价值的理论及评估方法和讨论商业银行的利率风险及度量方法,选择了收益法以银行的净现金流量为研究口径来分析银行净资产价值的优化问题。定义了金融工具基于连续时点的随机久期,应用随机久期方法管理银行的利率风险,通过久期缺口分析,证明了银行净资产价值与利率之间的关系,得出了银行价值的优化路径,即通过平衡现金流、风险及持续经营三者之间的关系,达到商业银行价值的最佳平衡状态。最后,分析了研究中的局限性以及值得深入探讨的工作方向。     

The effect of financial constraints,investment policy,product market competition and corporate governance on the value of cash holdings

This study empirically investigates the value shareholders place on excess cash holdings and how shareholders’ valuation of cash holdings is associated with financial constraints, firm growth, cash‐flow uncertainty and product market competition for Australian firms from 1990 to 2007. Our results indicate that the marginal value of cash holdings to shareholders declines with larger cash holdings and higher leverage. However, firms that are more financially constrained, that have higher growth rates and that face greater uncertainty exhibit a higher marginal value of cash holdings. These findings are consistent with the explanation that excess cash holdings are not necessarily detrimental to firm value. Firms with costly external financing and that also save more cash for current operating and future investing needs find that the market values these cash hoarding policies favourably. Finally, there is limited evidence of an association between various corporate governance measures and the value of cash holdings for a shorter sample period.     

基于自由现金流量假说的盈余管理动因研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于代理成本理论及自由现金流量假说分析框架,研究了我国上市公司自由现金流量引发的盈余管理行为,并以2004~2006年我国A股上市公司为样本,运用面板数据分析方法进行了相应的实证研究。研究发现,自由现金流的代理成本是激发我国上市公司管理者进行盈余管理的重要原因;企业债务对自由现金流引发的盈余管理行为具有一定的抑制作用,但债务的软约束现象仍然存在。     

产品市场竞争与现金价值:掠夺理论还是代理理论

本文利用2000～2009年沪深两市上市公司的非平衡面板数据来考察产品市场竞争与现金价值之间的关系。检验结果表明,比行业竞争对手持有更多现金的企业具有较高的价值,垄断程度较高的行业企业所持现金的价值更高。基于倾向得分理论的检验结果表明垄断性行业子样本的现金价值显著高于竞争性行业子样本。进一步的检验结果表明成长性、市场化程度和现金持有量的区间效应因素并不影响文章的研究结论。这些实证结果都支持了掠夺理论的分析。     

Liquidity Crises and Corporate Cash Holdings in Chile

This paper addresses the heterogonous effects of adverse liquidity shocks on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market. We use a large panel dataset with quarterly financial information for Chilean firms during the period 1996–2009. We find three main results. First, liquidity crises have had a negative and economically significant effect on cash holdings, but mainly for small firms; medium‐sized and large firms have not been affected by liquidity crises. Second, liquidity crises reduce the ability of firms to adjust to optimal cash holdings. Finally, medium‐sized firms are less able to adjust cash holdings compared to small and large firms.     

Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance,accuracy and usefulness

This study examines the factors affecting the issuance, accuracy and usefulness of analysts' cash flow forecasts (CFFs) in Australia. Given the economic importance of the mining industry in Australia, we find that analysts are likely to provide CFFs for mining firms with poor financial health and high default risk. In contrast, analysts' provision of CFFs increases with the degree of financial health for non‐mining firms. The determinants of the issuance and accuracy of analysts' CFFs also differ in pre‐ and post‐IFRS adoption periods. Our results add new evidence on the effect of IFRS adoption on analysts' cash flow forecasting behaviours.