What happened to profitability? Shocks,challenges and perspectives for euro area banks

This paper analyses the evolution of bank profitability from 2005 to 2016, with a focus on the period covering both the global financial crisis and the euro area crisis. To accomplish this, we constructed a dataset that includes financial statement information from 310 euro area banks. Using a dual approach – a ‘bottom-up’ approach as applied by bank analysts and macroeconomists' ‘top-down’ approach, we find that the profitability of euro area banks was hit by two shocks of different nature. The Lehman Brothers collapse affected mostly big banks with diversified portfolios via losses in their securities investment. The subsequent euro area debt crisis and economic recession hit more traditional banks specialising in retail lending activities, mainly through increasing impairment costs. If the first shock had a one-off impact on bank profitability, the second shock is far more long-lasting and is still depressing the profitability of banks in peripheral Europe.     

Interpreting the European Union’s IFRS Endorsement Criteria: The Case of IFRS 9

EU Regulation requires that any international accounting standards (International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS) and interpretations (IFRIC) pronounced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) meet three sets of criteria before they become binding for EU-based companies: a ‘true and fair view’ criterion, a list of qualitative criteria, and a ‘European public good’ criterion. During the endorsement process, EU institutions evaluate each standard or interpretation’s compliance with these three criteria. Nevertheless, despite plenty of past endorsement decisions, there is still disagreement about a unanimous interpretation of the criteria in the literature. In this study, we interpret all three criteria against the background of European accounting law and academic accounting research. Then, the paper illustrates for the case of the new IFRS 9 standard on accounting for financial instruments how these criteria can be applied in the endorsement practice. We conclude that the standard cannot reasonably be rejected on grounds of the IAS Regulation. We also explain that the vagueness of the endorsement criteria and the inherent discretion in the eventual endorsement decision help maintain the EU’s political influence on the IASB’s standard-setting ex ante.     

Transparency and trust: the case of the European Central Bank

We examine how the transparency of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy affects the amount of trust that the citizens of the European Union have in this institution. We use nearly half a million individual responses from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey from 2000 to 2011 and estimate probit regressions with sample selection. We find that transparency exerts a non-linear effect on trust. Transparency increases trust, but only up to a certain point; too much transparency harms trust. This result is robust to controlling for a number of macroeconomic conditions, financial stability transparency measures, and economic and socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, including examining respondents in European Union countries that do not use the euro and addressing clustering issues.     

商业银行参与PPP项目的风险分担研究——基于三方静态博弈模型

在我国地方债问题日趋严重的背景下,PPP模式是未来我国基础设施建设的发展方向,而商业银行作为资金融通最重要的中介,势必在PPP项目中发挥较大的作用。首先概述了PPP的内涵和参与PP项目的三方主体,其次对PPP项目中的各类风险进行了分类,然后利用三方静态博弈模型讨论了政府、私营企业和银行的风险分担模式,得出应由风险偏好系数大的一方承担风险的结论,最后对商业银行在参与PPP项目中的风险分担的策略提出建议。     

Central Bank or Monetary Authority? Three Views on Money and Monetary Reform

The global financial crisis triggered profound changes in the conduct of monetary policy, with ultra‐low interest rates and asset purchases becoming the main policy tools. This represents a major shift towards interventionism that even ten years after the global financial crisis has not been reversed. In this article, I assess three views on money and monetary reform. I argue that a central bank regime with a narrow focus on refinancing property at market interest rates remains an attractive alternative to the current regime and provides an essential benchmark to assess the progress of monetary normalisation.     

中国人民银行央行票据的可持续性问题分析

自2003年我国中央银行票据开始登上公开市场的舞台,并且逐步发展成为中央银行公开市场操作的主流工具之一。本文主要从央行票据在公开市场操作中的作用、我国流动性过剩、存款准备金等货币政策的局限性和央行票据所承担的新的政策职能的角度来说明因为我国所处特殊经济金融的环境,央行票据作为我国公开市场操作的中长期工具,具有可持续性。最后本文还对完善央行票据制度提出几点政策建议。     

The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches

Speeches are an important vehicle for central bankers to convey individual views on the preferred policy stance. In this article, we employ an automated text linguistic approach to create an indicator that measures the tone of the 1,618 speeches delivered by members of the Governing Council (GC) during the period 1999M1–2014M4. We then relate this variable to euro area and national macroeconomic forecasts. Our key findings are as follows. First, inflation and growth expectations have a positive and significant impact on the hawkishness of a speech. Second, different growth expectations across the euro area and different preferences significantly explain discrepancies across speakers. Third, the voiced preferences of presidents of the national central banks (NCBs) largely coincide with the level of independence their central banks had at the time of the Maastricht Treaty. However, in general, there are not much differences between members of the Executive Board and the NCB presidents. Fourth, we find some evidence that central bankers adjust the gist of their speeches depending on whether they talk at home or abroad and before or after a GC meeting. Finally, differences in central banker preferences are the key source of variation in their speeches before the financial crisis.     

Modeling FDI based on a spatially augmented gravity model: Evidence for Central and Eastern European Countries

Based on a spatially augmented gravity model, the current paper isolates spatial interrelationships in foreign direct investment (FDI) to Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) not only across the destination but also across the origin country dimension of FDI. Results show that (i) spatial interrelationships across destination countries are present and are consistent with the predominance of vertical-complex FDI in total FDI; (ii) spatial correlation across origin countries is given in earlier years of transition, while spillover and competition effects cancel over the whole sample period; and (iii) agglomeration forces gain in importance for FDI to CEECs.     

企业文化与血站执行力文化建设探析

企业文化与血站执行力文化的建设虽然有一定差别,但是之间却存在着异曲同工关系,处理好文化建设与工作效率之间的关系是任何一个单位建设长远发展目标,打造坚实基础的重要条件。     

Monetization and growth in colonial New England, 1703–1749

We examine econometrically the real effects of paper money's introduction into colonial New England over the 1703–1749 period. Departing from earlier analyses that focus primarily on the depreciation of paper money in the region, we show that expansion of the money stock promoted growth in modern sector activity and not the other way around. We also find that bills emitted for seigniorage purposes had a positive effect on the modern sector, while bills issued through loan banks did not.