Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Based on a new daily data set for 20 emerging markets over the period 1992–2006, we examine the reactions of foreign exchange markets, domestic stock markets, and sovereign bond spreads to central bank governor changes. We find that the replacement of a central bank governor negatively affects financial markets on the announcement day, which is in line with the hypothesis that newly appointed central bank governors suffer from a systematic credibility problem at the beginning of their tenure. We also find some evidence that changes in perceived central bank independence affect markets.     

Efficiency and risk in commercial banking: empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This paper analyses the effects of off-balance sheet (OBS) activities and various types of risks on the cost and profit efficiencies of banks in seven East Asian countries between 2001 and 2008. Cost and profit efficiency scores are estimated using the data envelopment analysis approach. The results of this analysis are then used to identify the impact of OBS activities and risk exposures on cost and profit efficiencies using a Tobit regression. Bank insolvency risk (as measured by z-scores) is positively related to profit efficiency, while interest sensitivity, size, equity to total assets and OBS exposures all impact on cost efficiency. The analysis of the impact of input and output slacks illustrates that in around 1 in 5 cases banks’ cost efficiency can be improved by adjusting the former variables, whereas in only around 1 in 100 cases a similar outcome is possible for profit efficiency.     

Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries

This paper seeks to shed light on the inflation dynamics of four new central European EU members: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied, with the following results: (1) the claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile, (2) inflation seems to be driven by external factors, and (3) although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be adaptive, rather than rational price setting of local firms.     

Governance Mechanisms and Ownership in an Emerging Market: The Case of Turkish Banks

This study investigates the relations of board structure, ownership concentration, and ownership type with the performance of banks operating in Turkey from an agency theory and resource-dependency perspective. We use financial ratios and established measures of board characteristics and ownership structure. Our results indicate that board size and duality do not significantly influence the returns on assets of Turkish banks. On the other hand, the tenure of board members is negatively related to performance. Our analysis of board composition reveals a curvilinear relationship with banks' performance, implying that boards composed of a majority of either insiders or outsiders enjoy high performance. Also, ownership concentration and ownership type do not influence firm performance. The results of the financial variables are robust in all models.     

Central bank financial strength and inflation: Is there a robust link?

Central bank financial strength has not been a fundamental issue for a substantial period of time. However, recent theoretical and empirical studies argue that central banks need to maintain a sufficient level of financial strength to perform their functions effectively and to achieve monetary policy objectives. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation using an unbalanced panel data set for a sample of selected advanced and emerging countries. We observe a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation. This relationship is robust in the presence of other determinants of inflation and for alternative estimation methods. Our results have important implications for policy makers and central bankers. Particularly, our results suggest that avoiding persistent losses and maintaining the health of the central bank balance sheet remain vital pre-conditions for desirable policy outcomes of a central bank.     

Dynamic central bank independence indices and inflation rate: A new empirical exploration

It has been argued that economies with more independent central banks experience lower inflation over time. In this paper we show that this relationship is sensitive to the methodology through which central bank independence indices are constructed. We stress the importance of employing dynamic central bank independence indices in two ways. First, we perform unit root tests with structural breaks to verify if the implementation of central bank reforms represents a structural break for the inflation rate dynamics. Second, we implement a panel data analysis.We find evidence that legislative reforms that modify the degree of independence of a central bank have a strong impact on the inflation rate dynamics. Moreover, underlying the importance of employing dynamic central bank independence indices, we confirm the negative relationship between the latter and inflation for a sample of 10 OECD countries.     

新疆面向中亚国际物流发展研究

在“丝绸之路经济带”建设的大背景下,作为“第三利润源”物流的重要性日益突出。新疆地处亚欧大陆腹地,东联西出的独特地缘优势为其与中亚国家进行贸易提供了便利。然而,新疆与中亚国家开展物流活动仍然存在物流衔接不畅、物流行业管理不善、现代物流企业缺乏等问题,这严重影响了新疆与中亚国家的贸易。因此,应努力从实现与中亚国家物流标准的衔接、提高通关效率、加强物流行业管理及建设现代物流企业等方面来促进新疆面向中亚的国际物流顺畅化。     

金融脱媒趋势下商业银行基于顾客价值的应对策略分析

近几年,金融脱媒在中国已逐渐显现并对传统商业银行利模式带来影响。环境的变化迫使商业银行形成以顾客为导向的营销策略。为了提升顾客价值,商业银行应从开展综合经营、发展个人金融、网络业务、机构业务等方面来积极应对。     

中部地区农地流转特征及影响因素分析——基于中部六省的调查

应用分类评定模型(Logit模型)对中国中部地区的农户调查数据研究表明:地权稳定性、地区经济发展水平对农地转入和转出都有显著的正向影响;家庭年总收入、非农收入比重、外出务工劳动力比重、土地流转价格对土地转出有显著的正向影响,而对土地转入有显著的负影响;户主年龄对土地转出影响不显著、对转入有显著的正向影响;户主受教育程度对土地转入和转出的影响均不显著。研究的结果表明,要促进我国中部地区农地流转,必须继续贯彻惠农政策,大力发展农村经济,完善农地流转的相关政策法规和服务,增强地权的稳定性。     

银行理财顾客感知价值权衡因素的测评体系

针对银行理财产品营销实践中仅仅关注顾客感知风险的片面做法,从感知利益与感知风险的双重视角对影响理财顾客感知价值的核心权衡因素进行了测评。结合文献回顾与内容分析的结果,构建了银行理财顾客感知价值权衡因素测评指标体系,从感知利益与感知风险的构成维度开发出一套测度量表,并通过对1 010位银行个人理财顾客的调研验证了量表的信度与效度。