The Emergence of Proto-Institutions in the New Normal Business Landscape: Dialectic Institutional Work and the Dutch Drone Industry

In the current business landscape, in which technology-enabled entrepreneurship is part of the New Normal, regulatory institutional structures are in constant flux. Previous studies have framed the challenges facing entrepreneurs in mature organizational fields as avoiding the power of overbearing regulators long enough to establish the legitimacy of their ventures. In fields typified by New Normal conditions, however, regulatory frameworks for evaluating new technology-enabled ventures are often still lacking. Regulators may choose to actively reach out to entrepreneurs to arrive at a better understanding of the radical technological changes and high-frequency entrepreneurial behavioural adaptations that occur in these settings. To grasp how novel regulatory institutional structures come about in the New Normal business landscape, we conducted a processual study of the emergence of a new technology that is the Dutch remotely piloted aircraft systems (drone) industry between 2000 and 2018. Our findings show that regulatory proto-institutions result from dialectic institutional work in the form of structured interactions between entrepreneurs and regulators. Specifically, we present a process model that reveals how new regulatory structures evolve in contexts where high levels of technological and behavioural change induce systemic uncertainty, and enlarge the interdependence between entrepreneurs and regulators. We suggest that our process theory of proto-institutional emergence generalizes towards other organizational fields in which technology-enabled entrepreneurship has become the main driver of growth. Theoretically, our findings speak to the literatures on institutional work, proto-institutional emergence, and the New Normal business landscape.     

浅析二项分布、泊松分布和正态分布之间的关系

二项分布、泊松分布和正态分布一直是学习和研究概率统计的基础。在一定条件下,这三个分布之间存在着密切关系。文章通过求极限分布,研究了二项分布与泊松分布、二项分布与正态分布之间的关系,并利用特征函数和分布函数相互唯一确定这一性质,分析了泊松分布和正态分布之间的关系。     

IT外包项目的团队管理研究

团队管理是IT外包项目成功的重要因素之一。文章分析了IT外包项目的团队体系架构和矩阵结构管理模式,着重介绍了团队的动态管理,包括流失预警、职业规划、培训及绩效评估等多种机制。在此基础上,结合激励及约束手段来维护团队的优质稳定。     

我国军民融合产业对制造业运行的动态响应

基于db（n=5）小波函数,对我国证券市场军工航天板块收盘价与成交量自2005年6月以来的2 512个交易日进行时序模拟,通过对低频信号进行提取后认为,我国军工航天产业发展对宏观经济政策的依赖度较高,军民融合产业整体仍面临着深度发展的良好机遇。基于VAR模型,对我国制造业宏观经济运行指标进行了动态模拟、脉冲函数响应分析与方差分解。结果显示,制造业新产品订单指数可作为研究我国制造业经济运行的重要指标,经对数化后其每提升1个百分点或高端装备制造业指数每增长1个百分点,相应的军民融合产业指数分别提高2.86%和1.22%。为提升我国制造业尤其是高端装备制造业水平,应促进军民融合产业深度发展。     

新常态下中国节能服务产业发展新方向:与PPP模式的集成研究

为了实现新常态下节能服务产业转型,探索中国节能服务产业发展新方向,以集成论为基础理论框架,首先通过分析节能服务产业与PPP模式集成所需要的集成单元、集成条件和集成界面,证明了二者集成的可行性,解决了能否集成的问题;其次,在集成单元和集成界面确定的基础上,设计出节能服务产业与PPP模式之间的集成模式,解决了怎样集成的问题;最后,识别出影响节能服务产业与PPP模式所构成的集成体发展的集成环境,解决了哪些因素会影响集成体发展的问题。     

新常态下军民融合协同创新与战略性新兴产业成长研究

新常态下充分发挥国防科技创新资源优势,以军民融合协同创新和成果产业化促进战略性新兴产业成长,对主动适应新常态,培育发展新动力和驱动经济发展方式转变具有重要意义。在提出军民融合协同创新概念,分析其与战略性新兴产业成长运行机理的基础上,提出了军民融合协同创新促进战略性新兴产业成长的3种实现路径以及对策建议。     

新常态下产业政策转型研究

当前,我国经济正处于转型升级的关键时期。战略性新兴产业具有明显的技术进步特征,符合经济新常态下的增长动力转换要求。针对厂商的直接补贴和针对消费者的间接补贴是政府扶持新兴产业的主要政策工具,因而被广泛应用。基于实物期权理论构建了供给端与需求端补贴下企业投资决策模型,比较了两种政策工具对新兴产业发展的影响,并利用数值模拟方法讨论了不同补贴方式的政策效果。研究发现：政府应根据产业发展阶段和市场现状组合使用这两种补贴方式。当产业处于初创期时,政府可以直接对投资行为进行补贴,以促进新兴产业快速发展;当产业发展至成熟阶段,产能可能出现过剩时,政府应适当减少甚至取消对投资者的直接补贴,提高研发补贴比例,增加企业有效供给;同时,加大对消费者的补贴力度,在提高消费者福利水平的基础上,扩大新兴市场产品需求。研究成果对于缓解目前我国供需结构不均衡的局面具有借鉴意义。     

Models for stock returns

Historically, the normal variance model has been used to describe stock return distributions. This model is based on taking the conditional stock return distribution to be normal with its variance itself being a random variable. The form of the actual stock return distribution will depend on the distribution for the variance. In practice, the distributions chosen for the variance appear to be very limited. In this note, we derive a comprehensive collection of formulas for the actual stock return distribution, covering some sixteen flexible families. The corresponding estimation procedures are derived by the method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood. We feel that this work could serve as a useful reference and lead to improved modelling with respect to stock market returns.     

中国城镇化的经济因素分析

近些年来,中国农村城镇化问题成了促进中国经济发展的重要议题,对于城镇化的讨论也异常激烈.本文结合Hollis Chenery的模型,讨论影响中国城镇化的因素都有哪些,从而为中国城镇化发展道路提出一定的借鉴性建议.     

Equilibrium play and best response to (stated) beliefs in normal form games

We report experimental results on a series of ten one-shot two-person 3×3 normal form games with unique equilibrium in pure strategies played by non-economists. In contrast to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, a majority of actions taken coincided with the equilibrium prediction (70.2%) and were best-responses to subjects' stated beliefs (67.2%). In constant-sum games, 78% of actions taken were predicted by the equilibrium model, outperforming simple K-level reasoning models. We discuss how non-trivial game characteristics related to risk aversion, efficiency concerns and social preferences may affect the predictive value of different models in simple normal form games.