聚类分析与范例推理在反洗钱中的应用

本文以数据挖掘技术在可疑金融交易识别中的应用现状为铺垫,探讨了聚类分析和范例推理技术在反洗钱中的应用.在分析数据挖掘技术运用于可疑金融交易识别的基础上,对我国的可疑金融交易识别研究提出浅见,希望对我国的反洗钱信息系统的建设有所裨益.     

Aggregation in macroeconomic models: an empirical input–output approach

The aggregation level of industries in the Danish macroeconomic model ADAM is examined using a new indicator of aggregation bias. The indicator is decomposed into contributions from the original industries, thereby clearly identifying the aggregation problems which caused the six industry groups of the older versions of ADAM to be disaggregated into the current 19 groups. An aggregation key minimizing the new bias indicator is found: from the microlevel of 64 industries, 18 ‘optimal’ industry groups are formed through ‘clustering’; these groups are very similar to the current ADAM groups. Altogether, the conclusions based on the new indicator closely resemble those reached through years of practical experience.     

Firms’ productivity growth and R&D spillovers: An analysis of alternative technological proximity measures

This paper aim at assessing the impact of R&D spillovers on firms’ economic performance as measured by productivity growth. The construction of R&D spillovers is based on Jaffe's methodology (1988, 1996) which associates econometrics and data analysis. The main objective of the paper is to extend Jaffe's methodology by examining alternative methods for measuring R&D spillovers and to test their impacts in terms of the robustness of results. In particular, the method used to classify firms into technological clusters as well as the metrics implemented to appreciate firms’ technological proximities which enter the construction of spillovers are further investigated. In addition to R&D spillovers, firms’ own R&D capital, labour and physical capital are estimated by means of a Cobb–Douglas production function. The data set consists of a representative sample of 625 worldwide R&D intensive firms over the period 1987–1994.     

Aggregating forest harvesting activities in forest plantations through Integer Linear Programming and Goal Programming

The inclusion of criteria related to the spatial patterns resulting from forest harvesting activities is an important component of forest planning. Harvesting operations are more efficient when the harvesting areas are clustered. Therewith, it is possible to reduce the displacement of machinery and costs related to construction and maintenance of the road network. In this context, the objective of this study was to evaluate different strategies for aggregating harvesting stands in a forest plantation. We applied two Goal Programming approaches aiming at aggregating harvesting stands and an Integer Linear Programming model for including road investments into strategic forest planning.     

中国广告产业集群化发展的战略选择与制度审视

本文运用产业集群理论,阐述了中国广告产业集群化发展的现实必需及其战略意义。文章在审视中国广告产业现状的基础上,指出中国广告公司要实现对广告业发达国家的超越,必须创新广告产业发展路径,走专业化-专门化-集群化-规模化的产业发展之路,专业化和专门化是集群化发展的基础和保障,规模化是集群化发展的必然走向,而公共政策的制度供给则是广告产业集群化发展的迫切需求。     

Complementary approaches to preliminary foreign market opportunity assessment: country clustering and country ranking

Companies seeking to expand abroad are faced with the complex task of screening and evaluating foreign markets. How can managers define, characterize, and express foreign market opportunity? What makes a good market, an attractive industry environment? National markets differ in terms of market attractiveness, due to variations in the economic and commercial environment, growth rates, political stability, consumption capacity, receptiveness to foreign products, and other factors. This research proposes and illustrates the use of two complementary approaches to preliminary foreign market assessment and selection: country clustering and country ranking. These two methods, in combination, can be extremely useful to managerial decision makers in the early stages of foreign market selection.     

On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters

It is not uncommon to observe the published forecasts of economic commentators closely bunched together over long periods of time. In our case, the phenomenon is observed for eight national panels of economists who report monthly forecasts. A framework is developed that conveniently nests within it several simple, yet plausible forecasting rules, and allows us to explore the extent of the clustering phenomenon. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: February 2001     

基于模糊聚类算法的虚拟物流组织核心能力定量识别

本文探讨了虚拟物流组织核心能力的概念、含义和特征;对基于模糊聚类算法的核心能力定量识别方法中模糊相似关系矩阵的建立、相似关系系数的确定以及聚类分析等方法进行了改进,并将该方法应用于对虚拟物流组织核心能力的评价和对虚拟物流组织伙伴的选择;最后,结合仿真案例对该方法作了简要分析。     

赣州各县市城市化水平综合评价与分析

本文构建了城市化水平综合评价体系,并用统计软件SPSS13.0对所构建的指标体系进行主成分分析和聚类分析,在分析结果的基础上将赣州各县市按城市化水平高低分为3大类,并提出加快城市化水平的具体措施。