Investment and bank credit recovery after banking crises

In this paper, we aim to investigate (a) the dynamic adjustment of investment-to-GDP ratio and bank credit-to-GDP ratio following banking crisis episodes; (b) whether the adjustment of investment and bank credit ratios varies with several country and crisis characteristics. Based on a sample of 79 developed and emerging countries over the 1973–2010 period, our results suggest that in the aftermath of banking crises, investment ratio declines but swiftly recovers to its pre-crisis level within two to three years. Bank credit declines significantly and remains stagnated even in the medium run. In terms of country characteristics, we find that investment and bank credit ratios decline significantly more in advanced countries and countries with higher level of capital openness. In addition, investment ratio declines significantly more in countries with higher level of financial development. Finally, we split the banking crises episodes into two categories: those preceded by a domestic credit boom or a surge in net capital inflows, and those that were not preceded by such booms. We find that dynamic adjustment of investment and bank credit ratios differs substantially across the two groups. Existence of a credit boom or a surge in capital inflow in the run-up to the crisis intensifies the length and depth of the decline in investment and bank credit ratios. In fact, we find no statistically significant decline in investment following banking crises that were not preceded by a credit boom or a surge in capital inflows. These results imply that deleveraging is costly to the economy.     

Speculators,commodities and cross-market linkages

We use a unique, non-public dataset of trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets' financialization in the past decade. We then show that the correlation between the rates of return on investible commodity and equity indices rises amid greater participation by speculators generally, hedge funds especially, and hedge funds that hold positions in both equity and commodity futures markets in particular. We find no such relationship for commodity swap dealers, including index traders (CITs). The predictive power of hedge fund positions is weaker in periods of generalized financial market stress. Our results support the notion that who trades helps predict the joint distribution of commodity and equity returns. We find qualitatively similar but statistically weaker results using a proxy for hedge fund activity based on publicly available data.     

全球商品期货市场的发展趋势展望

本文从商品期货市场发展的现状出发,阐述了中国商品期货市场所取得的成就以及尚处于初级阶段的现实,并深入剖析当前宏观经济形势对大宗商品期货市场的复杂影响,展望了未来国际及国内商品期货市场的发展。     

实体经济流通状况对长期利率影响机制的实证分析——基于美国1959～2010年数据研究

金融危机后的全球性经济刺激政策正在逐步演变为流动性陷阱,外生性因素对货币供求的作用递减,当前很有必要理清货币本质,在实体经济领域对利率的内生形成机制进行研究.本文提出的长期利率模型揭示了实体经济流通状况与长期利率之间的内在关系,并以美国1959～2010年数据为例建立VEC模型和状态空间模型对长期利率的影响机制进行实证分析,结果显示通涨、货币政策等外生因素在短期对利率产生影响,长期中利率受到厂商库存和订单增长率等描述的商品平均流通状况的影响.     

2011年北京商品房价格影响因素的方差分析

2011年,北京房价持续走高,不同城区的房价也都持续上涨。本文通过STATA软件对北京城八区和周边地区的商品房价格因素进行了描述统计分析、多因素方差分析和回归预测等,试图找出不同因素对于楼盘销售价格影响的显著性,并对差别进行估计和分析。     

2011年北京商品房价格影响因素的方差分析

2011年,北京房价持续走高,不同城区的房价也都持续上涨。本文通过STATA软件对北京城八区和周边地区的商品房价格因素进行了描述统计分析、多因素方差分析和回归预测等,试图找出不同因素对于楼盘销售价格影响的显著性,并对差别进行估计和分析。     

新疆物流业发展的市场环境分析

物流是一个新兴的复合型服务行业,面临着竞争日益激烈的市场环境。本着了解行业经济环境,识别行业发展趋势的目的,就新疆物流业发展面临的政策环境、竞争环境、市场供求关系和物流企业的景气情况做了分析。     

比较优势到竞争优势——基于中国出口商品结构的经验分析

文章在波特钻石模型的基础上构建了比较优势、竞争优势和动态竞争优势的模型,提出了比较优势战略和赶超战略应该相互融合的路径,并利用1990年到2007年的中国出口商品结构的面板数据验证了这种关系。研究得出：竞争优势的取得依赖于比较优势,从而是由资源禀赋状况内生决定的;在市场经济条件下,静态竞争优势带来的剩余将不断提高资源禀赋的结构,动态比较优势会自发地导致动态竞争优势,为此,要利用静态的比较优势所获得的剩余来培育动态比较优势,从而使一个国家的产业结构不断渐进地高度化。我国沿海地区外向型企业的大量倒闭,是因为这些企业没有利用先前的竞争优势的剩余提高自身的动态比较优势,外部的以美国为首的金融危机仅诱使这种情况早点出现,这也给这些地方企业提供了产业升级的压力和机遇。     

矿权性质及其市场制度

矿权市场在本质上属于要素市场 ,但在形式和部分功能上与商品市场有相通之处。矿权是用益物权 ,不是“经营权” ,也不是“知识产权”。生产要素有现成存在的 ,有需要通过特定生产过程才能形成或使用的 ,土地属于前者 ,矿产资源大部分属于后者。自然资源能做到清楚分割并实现排他性占有的 ,宜实行用益物权制度 ;做不到的 ,宜实行行政许可制度。土地一级市场最重要 ,大部分矿产资源二级市场最重要     

Local economic impacts of an unconventional energy boom: the coal seam gas industry in Australia

Complementing the scarce economic literature about local impacts of energy extraction booms, this paper empirically investigates economic outcomes related to the new coal seam gas (CSG) industry located across southern Queensland. This Australian state has seen an unprecedented inflow of investments into the extraction of this previously unexploited unconventional natural gas over the last decade. We analyse census data to study income and employment effects associated with the CSG boom, exploiting the quasi‐experimental conditions provided by CSG extraction areas (treatment regions) and regions without this development (control regions). Findings show that treatment regions have higher income growth than control areas during 2001–2011 for families residing locally and for individuals present on census night. Employment in the mining sector also shows higher growth as has non‐mining employment in some areas. We include comparisons between CSG areas with no major mining history (the Surat basin) and CSG areas where mining was important before the CSG boom (the Bowen basin), to better understand boom effects in areas with different initial mining industry importance in their economies. Local job multipliers are also analysed for Surat basin CSG areas, where positive impacts (job spillovers) are restricted to construction and professional services jobs, while agricultural jobs have decreased.