Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay

The 2006-2008 food price spike raised concerns about the impact of high commodity prices on poverty in developing countries. This paper addresses these concerns in relation to Uruguay, a small country that exports agricultural commodities and imports fuels. Applying a general equilibrium model, we find that, as a whole, an increase in commodity prices has a positive effect on the economy of Uruguay. Benefits obtained through a growth in export activities are partially outweighed by an increase in crude oil prices. In this context, extreme poverty increases. As in other countries, the increase in food prices affects the already poor population, who become even poorer. This fact highlights the need for policies that mitigate the negative effects of price shocks.     

国际大宗商品价格冲击、传递效应与中国的通货膨胀动态

本文在Philips曲线设定下,通过扩展该模型实证考察国际大宗商品价格冲击对中国通货膨胀动态的影响作用。本文在线性模型设定以及Markov机制转换设定下考察国际大宗商品价格冲击对中国国内通货膨胀的传递效应。本文实证研究结果表明,国际大宗商品价格动态变化不仅在统计意义上显著地影响着中国通货膨胀动态,而且个别类别的国际大宗商品价格变化对中国通货膨胀动态的传递效应相对明显。最后,结合经验研究结果,本文提供了相关政策建议和启示。     

珠江三角洲新兴城市竞争力的统计评价与提升策略

通过定性与定量分析方法,构建城市综合竞争能力评价指标体系,对珠江三角洲新兴城市的综合竞争能力进行评价和分析,并提出若干增强珠江三角洲新兴城市综合竞争力的对策和建议。     

Error or absurdity? A non-cognitive approach to commodity fetishism

Abstract

Karl Marx presented his theory of commodity fetishism as an explanation of the mysterious appearance of social relations in a system of commodity production as natural phenomena. The standard interpretation of this as a failure to perceive capitalist social relations correctly depends on a particular modern sense of ‘natural’. If classical political economy and Marx used ‘natural’ in the Aristotelian sense, commodity fetishism appears quite differently: not as a cognitive error but rather as a manner of living under commodity production, one that is not wrong but absurd, the word fetishism tying commodity production to pre-Enlightenment, preliterate peoples.     

我国当前通货膨胀的国际因素研究

本文在美元持续贬值和全球性通货膨胀的背景下,分析了我国此轮通货膨胀的原因。通过脉冲响应分析、方差分解及协整检验,得出了国际商品价格的持续上涨和我国外汇储备的快速增加都对我国的消费者价格水平带来正的和持久的冲击的结论。     

对商品住房梯度消费体系的分析及其研究——以西安市为例

通过对当前商品住房梯度消费体系的分析及其研究,给住房梯度消费带来的"理想"与"现实"的冲突我们将试图进行探索。中国社会现在正处于高速发展的城市化阶段,无论是在日常的生活介绍中还是在我们这次问卷调查中,都能够清晰地发现当前城市居民存在着"一步到位"和"梯度消费"这两种住房消费观念。     

关于义乌小商品对外贸易经营问题的探析

颇具代表性的义乌小商品在众多中国民营经济中脱颖而出,但是近几年来,义乌小商品外贸出口企业频繁遭受欧美国家对其实施的各种技术性贸易壁垒的限制,传统的薄利多销而导致的恶性竞争使义乌小商品成为很多外国人印象中的廉价商品,同时人民币升值的压力对长期以来义乌小商品出口所主要依赖的价格优势提出挑战。提高商品质量和档次,熟悉国际市场经营规则,是义乌小商品未来长期发展的关键所在。     

Demand for coffee in Sweden: The role of prices, preferences and market power

There is a widespread belief that consumer coffee prices are high relative to bean prices and that lower consumer prices would lead to substantial increases in bean exports from Third-World countries. This issue is evaluated by analysing how retail prices, preferences and market power influence coffee demand in Sweden. A demand function is estimated for the period 1968–2002 and used, together with information on import prices of coffee beans, to simulate an oligopoly model. This approach gives estimates of the maximum average degree of market power and shows how coffee demand would react to reductions in marginal cost to its minimum level. The maximum level of market power is found to be low, but it generates large spreads between consumer and bean prices because the price elasticity has low absolute values. Moreover, the impact of a price decrease would be small because long-run coffee demand is dominated by changes in the population structure in combination with different preferences across age groups. Hence, a change to perfect competition would only have a negligible effect on bean imports.     

基于模糊神经网络算法的进口货物口岸检验检疫风险评估

口岸查验是检验检疫机构的重要职责之一,是进出口货物通关的重要环节。科学设定口岸查验率不仅可以解决检验检疫现场查验人员在＂把关＂和＂服务＂中的矛盾,而且还能突出查验重点、提高查获率,实现检验检疫机构有限人力、物力资源的最佳配置。本文从检验检疫查验风险评估自身所具有的模糊性以及高度非线性特点出发,初次利用非统计方法来构建科学合理、全面客观的指标体系,并以人工智能算法为基础,进一步提出运用模糊神经网络算法对具体的进口货物进行风险评估,以便于科学制定查验率。     

全球生产网络的浮现及其探讨——一个基于全球化的地方发展研究框架

1980年代以后全球化和信息化双重发展的进程中,全球经济生产组织模式发生巨大变迁,亟需新的理论框架予以解释。本文首先介绍全球生产网络研究框架的相关理论,重点分析在以劳动分工为元理论的研究体系中,这些理论与全球生产网络研究的承接关系;其次,探讨了经济地理学派与管理学派在研究路径与主要研究内容两个方面的差异;再次,以曼彻斯特经济地理学派相关研究为理论基础,总结出全球生产网络研究框架的主要内容:(1)价值生产与分配;(2)权力组织与网络;(3)地方镶嵌与网络镶嵌。最后提出在中国开展全球生产网络研究具有重要的理论与实践意义。