零售商业景气波动信号控制系统的构造与应用

零售商业景气波动的信号控制系统,通过一组指示灯信号系统来监测、调控零售商业景气运行的过程.1988年和1989年我国零售商业景气波动控制信号图形象、直观地揭示了我国零售商业景气的波动情况;2001年11月到2002年10月的零售商业景气波动控制信号图表明,虽然我国社会商品零售额尚未进入快速增长时期,但已经表现出了景气回升的态势,未来我国零售商业景气波动将在较高位上保持窄幅波动的局面.     

The Relative Importance of Stock, Bond and Real Estate Factors in Explaining REIT Returns

This paper examines the link between REIT, financial asset and real estate returns, and tests whether it changed subsequent to the “REIT boom” of the early 1990s. The main focus is on answering the question do REIT returns now better reflect the performance of underlying direct (unsecuritized) real estate? We develop and implement a variance decomposition for REIT returns that separates REIT return variability into components directly related to major stock, bond, and real estate-related return indices, as well as idiosyncratic or sector-specific effects. This is applied to aggregate REIT sector (NAREIT) returns as well as returns to size and property-type based REIT portfolios. Our results show that the REIT market went from being driven largely by the same economic factors that drive large cap stocks through the 1970s and 1980s to being more strongly related to both small cap stock and real estate-related factors in the 1990s. There is also a steady increase over time in the proportion of volatility not accounted for by stock, bond or real estate related factors. We also find that small cap REITs are “more like real estate” compared to larger cap REITs, at least over the 1993–1998 period. We argue that this could be a result of the institutionalization of the ownership of larger cap REITs that took place in the 1990s.     

商品价值新论

劳动价值论与社会主义市场经济实践相矛盾，社会主义市场经济实践需要一种新的价值理论。本从十个方面提出了一套新的商品价值理论体系。     

Scale Economies in Cross-Border Shopping and Commodity Taxation

A simple inventory theoretic model of cross-border shopping with transaction and storage costs is developed. Consumers incur fixed transaction and transportation costs to access the foreign market in which a perfect substitute of the domestic good is available. We show that the size of the optimal tax is inversely related to the size of domestic transactions. This result provides a simple example of a more general principle, that is, when there are increasing returns to scale in tax avoidance with respect to the quantities involved, then smaller transactions should be taxed more heavily than larger transactions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

西方最优商品税理论研究综述与评析——兼论统一抑或差别

"统一抑或差别"是理论经济学家和公共财政政策制定者之间长期争论的主题。文章以这一主题为线索介绍西方学者有关最优商品税理论研究的最新进展,认为最优商品税理论对于政策制定者而言,不仅具有重要的理论参考价值,而且还可以有助于在理论研究与具体政策建议之间架起交流的桥梁,特别是考虑家户生产的最新研究进展从定性和定量两个层面都能对合理设计以及实施差别税率的最优商品税制提供有用的政策依据和建议。     

中国大宗商品期货市场定价机制研究

大宗商品期货市场是我国资本市场的重要组成部分,其定价有效性关系到投资者套期保值和价格发现等功能的实现。本文对国际前沿研究中常用的定价因子进行全面系统梳理,并对这些因子对我国商品期货合约收益率的解释和预测能力进行检验。在此基础上,本文构建了适用于我国大宗商品期货市场的包含市场、基差以及基差动量的三因子定价模型。进一步研究表明,基于大宗商品存储理论和现货存货数据构建的投资组合收益率可以被本文三因子模型有效解释,验证了经典的存储理论在我国的适用性。此外,本文对基差与基差动量两个重要因子的经济学意义进行了阐释。本文研究为进一步厘清大宗商品期货市场定价机制提供了一定参考。     

China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade (“over-trading”) varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.     

为建设开放合作的区域性新兴城市提供环境保证

环保工作越来越成为经济发展工作的重中之重。文章结合广西南宁凤凰纸业有限公司治理环境的工作实际，对工业企业如何在发展经济的同时搞好环保工作进行了探讨。     

Structural transformation and the oil price

What part of the high oil price can be explained by structural transformation in the developing world? Will continued structural transformation in these countries result in a permanently higher oil price? To address these issues I identify an inverted-U shaped relationship in the data between aggregate oil intensity and the extent of structural transformation: countries in the middle stages of transition spend the highest fraction of their income on oil. I construct and calibrate a multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium growth model that accounts for this fact by generating an endogenously falling aggregate elasticity of substitution between oil and non-oil inputs. The model is used to measure and isolate the impact of changing sectoral composition in the developing world on global oil demand and the oil price in the OECD. I find that structural transformation in non-OECD countries accounts for up to 53% of the oil price increase in the OECD between 1970 and 2010. However, the impact of structural transformation is temporary. Continued structural transformation induces falling oil intensity and an easing of the upward pressure on the oil price. Since a standard one-sector growth model misses this non-linearity, to understand the impact of growth on the oil price, it is necessary to take a more disaggregated view than is standard in macroeconomics.     

Australia and resources in the Asian century

The Australian Government's White Paper ‘Australia in the Asian Century’ is the first large‐scale official look in the twenty‐first century at economic change in Asia and how it affects Australian opportunities and challenges. This paper comments on the analysis embodied in and the objectives defined by the White Paper, especially as it relates to Australian resources. This paper generally endorses the aspirations of the White Paper and notes that their achievement is going to require efforts and changes beyond those that are currently contemplated. It comments briefly on six things: the development context of twenty‐first century Asian growth; growth and structural change in Asia and Australia's terms of trade; macroeconomic management of a resource‐intensive Australian economy; restoring productivity growth; excellence in education; and linking Australia to Asian opportunity.