Out‐of‐sample stock return predictability in emerging markets

This article builds on the widely debated issue of stock return predictability by applying a broad range of predictor variables and comprehensively considering the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample stock return predictability of ten advanced emerging markets. It compares forecasts from models with a single predictor variable, multiple predictor variables and a combination forecast approach. The results confirm the findings of Welch and Goyal (2008) for US data that only a limited number of individual predictor variables are able to deliver significant out‐of‐sample forecasts. However, a combination forecast approach provides statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample forecast results.     

金融投机、实需与国际大宗商品价格——信息摩擦视角下的大宗商品价格影响机制研究

本文实证考察了2005-2015年金融投机和实需对国际大宗商品现货价格的影响及其作用机理。首先对具有信息噪音属性的金融投机进行了明确识别。其次,从多个维度出发区分市场信息摩擦状态,定量分析不同信息摩擦环境中金融投机和实需的影响差异。研究发现:大宗商品价格在长期中由实需因素主导,短期中由金融投机主导;短期中,相对于低信息摩擦环境,在市场波动性较高、金融压力上升以及投资者情绪高涨的高信息摩擦环境中,以金融投机为主的信息噪音对大宗商品价格的影响更强。进一步分析证实,相比于低信息摩擦环境,高信息摩擦环境中金融交易者的市场份额反而降低。据此,本文提出稳定大宗商品市场的关键在于提高市场透明度,减少信息摩擦,从市场质量出发降低信息噪音的影响。     

中国文化产业国际目标市场级别评价

在全球化的背景下,中国文化产业的发展壮大离不开国际市场的拓展.文章在对目标市场进行级别评价的基础上,进一步提出了中国文化产业国际市场拓展的政策建议.     

借鉴国外经验 加快商品物流配送现代化步伐——日本、韩国物流配送特点研究及其启示

通过对日本、韩国物流配送业的现代化技术设施和管理方法的深入了解和研究,认为我国必须学习借鉴国外先进经验,加快物流配送业的现代化步伐。提出了加快我国商品物流配送业现代化的见解。     

Price elasticity of water allocations demand in the Goulburn–Murray Irrigation District*

Bid prices for the demand and supply of water allocations between 2001 and 2007, and average monthly prices paid for water allocations from 1997 to 2007 in the Goulburn–Murray Irrigation District are analysed to estimate price elasticities. Based on bid prices, the price elasticity of demand for water allocations appears highly elastic, with elasticities strongly influenced by the season and drought. The price elasticity of supply for water allocations is also elastic, albeit less elastic than demand. Using actual prices paid, water demand is negatively related to price and is inelastic, and appears to be most influenced by demand the previous month, drought and seasonality factors.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

专业市场和产业集群的关联强度及其影响因素——基于浙江省绍兴市万份问卷的分析

本文利用对浙江省绍兴中国轻纺城市场商户和当地纺织企业所作的万余份调查问卷,发现运输成本、集群企业规模和技术水平对专业市场和产业集群关联强度的影响最大;本地物流效率提高和行业协会功能强化有助于拓展专业市场和产业集群关联的空间维度。值得注意的是,创牌激励并未成为企业脱离专业市场转而自建销售渠道的决定因素,这与专业市场自身的特征有关。     

Administrative cooperation and disease control in cross-border pork production

In recent years, the continuous structural change in the value chain of modern food production has been characterised by an increasing international division of labour among manufacturing companies. A regional specialisation of primary agricultural production is especially apparent in meat production. Thus, the German–Dutch border area has developed into a region of unprecedented intensive pork production. While The Netherlands specialises in piglet production, the production of fattened pigs continues to grow in northwest Germany. As a result of this increasing transnational value chain development, German imports of Dutch piglets have risen continuously since 2000. However, this structural interweaving of pork production between The Netherlands and Germany has resulted in many new challenges for the cooperation between the various participants and in particular for the administrative authorities in the field of food and feed safety as well as efficient animal disease control. The motivation for this exploratory study stems from the lack of scientific work on this topic to date. The aim of this research is to illustrate the relevance of functioning cross-border cooperation in the food sector, using commodity flow structures and disease spread analysis. Results indicate that cross-border cooperation between authorities during a CSF epidemic can reduce the risk of recurrence and the duration by 50%.     

中国30年经济增长与就业：构建灵活安全的劳动力市场

运用宏观统计数据,本文首先回答了中国经济增长是否创造就业的问题.通过分阶段分析经济增长对就业的拉动效应.文章认为中国经济增长是一种创造了大量就业的增长;本文第二部分分析劳动供求关系的最新变化及其演变趋势.认为劳动供求关系正在发生根本性转变。但中国尚没有步入劳动力短缺时代.在今后20年左右的时间内仍然拥有充足的劳动供给;本文第三部分讨论了当前劳动力市场所面临的主要问题,认为结构性矛盾突出、就业非正规化严重、初次收入分配扭曲等问题突出:第四部分为结论,提出构建安全灵活劳动力市场的概念和设想。     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.