晚年独居意味着孤独吗?——基于社会网络的调节与中介作用分析

老年人独居比例和孤独感的上升已经成为家庭现代化转型中的典型现象,现有对二者关系的研究忽视了社会网络的视角。基于2014年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据,利用潜在类别分析和logistic回归模型考察了社会网络在老年人独居和孤独感之间所发挥的作用。研究发现,老年人独居并不意味着会感到孤独,不同类型的社会网络加重或缓解了独居带来的孤独感上升。具体而言:第一,老年人社会网络可以分为多元-活跃型、社会-消极型、子女-消极型和单一-活跃型四种类型;资源禀赋丰富的老年人具有多元-活跃型社会网络的概率更大。第二,仅具有子女-消极型社会网络的老年人,单人独居才会显著提升他们的孤独感。第三,单人独居和夫妇独居老年人均会通过多元-活跃型的社会网络缓解自身孤独感。应通过积极的公共政策,从能力建设和社区环境营造两方面,推动老年人社会网络向多元-活跃型转变。     

颜色是光的波粒二象性在复频域的映射

本文从光的电磁波谐波时域函数及光子动量公式出发,推导出光色映射复频谱颜色表达式（二维平面函数）。通过公式得出,矢径与光的量子数有关,位相角与光的频率有关。通过分光光度计测量出色光的反（透）射率,经过计算得到复频谱矢端函数,在二维复平面上对矢端函数积分整合,给出表征颜色性能的色相、色强度、亮度、色饱和度及主波长等颜色特征数值,从而为进一步解析颜色奠定基础。     

Cross-border cooperation between securities regulators

The events of September 11, 2001, prompted sweeping cross-border coordination efforts for securities regulators around the globe. After 9/11, the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) forged a nonbinding arrangement—the Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding Concerning Consultation and Cooperation and the Exchange of Information (MMoU)—that standardized the protocol for information sharing among participating securities regulators. Because regulators from different countries entered the MMoU at different times, their enlistments created a set of staggered shocks. I use these shocks to show that the resulting cross-border cooperation (a) increases cross-border enforcement and (b) reduces the cost of liquidity provision in the capital markets of participating countries. These results support the conclusion that the MMoU helps fill gaps in cross-border regulation that historically exposed investors to information asymmetry, agency costs, and expropriation risks.     

“一带一路”跨国技术溢出网络空间演化与路径识别——加权复杂网络分析视角

运用加权复杂网络分析法对“一带一路”跨国技术溢出网络的空间格局演化、板块间技术溢出机制及国家间主要技术溢出路径进行分析，结果发现：①网络技术溢出强度提升显著，但呈偏态分布，仅有少数国家存在技术溢出，多数国家扮演着技术吸收者的角色；②网络呈现“核心-边缘”结构，中国、韩国和俄罗斯发挥着“发动机”、“传导”和“桥梁”的功效；③由中国、韩国等5国构成的板块一是“一带一路”跨国技术溢出的核心阵地，由俄罗斯等11国构成的板块二接收来自板块一的技术溢出，并将技术溢出动能向其它板块传递，由其余114国构成的板块三作为净受益者，是技术溢出动能传递路径的最终环节；④技术溢出路径既有空间依赖也有新的路径创造。技术主要被核心国家和发达国家吸收转化，体现出固定区域技术溢出的自我强化和反势能技术流特点。新增路径主要指向欠发达国家，表明越来越多的欠发达国家与核心国家产生技术联系并从中受益。     

旅游单体饭店信息化建设探讨

随着旅游饭店集团化和连锁化的进一步发展,旅游单体饭店的生存空间越来越小。旅游单体饭店要得以生存,就必须在自身优势的基础上借助互联网技术,打造全面信息化系统。文章从管理信息系统角度出发,根据旅游单体饭店内外部之间的关系,认为旅游单体饭店的信息化建设必须在发展饭店内部信息化的基础上,加强与外部旅游管理部门、公安部门、旅行社及其他旅游单体饭店的联网。     

Approaches to studying networks: Implications and outcomes

Concerns have been raised about lack of clarity in conceptual consideration and difficulty of applying the network concept as an analytical tool. These concerns can be associated with reliance on quantitative techniques, designed to look at structural characteristics, when qualitative approaches will reveal other aspects of networks. This paper builds on previous work and considers implications and outcomes of different methodological approaches for network research. Using a Ptolemaic/Copernican analogy it illustrates that both approaches are required to grasp and understand the complexity of networks and the associated activity of networking but that each deals with different aspects and features.     

Forecasting tourism demand with denoised neural networks

The automated Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) algorithm from the forecast package in R generates sub-optimal forecasts when faced with seasonal tourism demand data. We propose denoising as a means of improving the accuracy of NNAR forecasts via an application into forecasting monthly tourism demand for ten European countries. Initially, we fit NNAR models on both raw and denoised (with Singular Spectrum Analysis) tourism demand series, generate forecasts and compare the results. Thereafter, the denoised NNAR forecasts are also compared with parametric and nonparametric benchmark forecasting models. Contrary to the deseasonalising hypothesis, we find statistically significant evidence which supports the denoising hypothesis for improving the accuracy of NNAR forecasts. Thus, it is noise and not seasonality which hinders NNAR forecasting capabilities.     

基于资源约束的产业集成系统

随着工业化进程的深入,现有资源已难以承载产业发展的规模和速度。产业系统作为一个开放的复杂巨系统,有必要采取"集成"的方法来突破资源的束缚。在产业协同发展的过程中,如何实现产业内部各组成部分的物质、能量、信息的管理、交流和共享,已成为亟须解决的问题。本文提出采取产业集成化发展战略,遵循系统分析原则,构建多层次的产业集成系统框架,结合可持续发展理论,针对产业集成化的实现提出相应的策略建议。     

Modeling complex systems

Empirical observations suggest that linear dynamics are not an adequate representation of ecological systems and that a realistic representation would require adoption of complex nonlinear dynamical systems with characteristics encountered in complex adaptive systems (CAS). Adequate modeling should include and combine elements, such as strategic interactions among economic agents, nonconvexities induced by nonlinear feedbacks, separate spatial and temporal scales and modeling of spatiotemporal dynamics, and allowance of alternative time scales. Ignoring these characteristics might obscure very important features that we observe in reality, such as bifurcations and irreversibilities or hysteresis. As a consequence, the design of policies that do not take CAS characteristics into account might lead to erroneous results and undesirable states of managed economic–ecological systems.     

Network structure,games, and agent dynamics

Consider a group of agents embedded in a network, repeatedly playing a game with their neighbors. Each agent acts locally but through the links of the network local decisions percolate to the entire population. Past research shows that such a system converges either to an absorbing state (a fixed distribution of actions that once attained does not change) or to an absorbing set (a set of action distributions that may cycle in finite populations or behave chaotically in unbounded populations). In many network games, however, it is uncertain which situation emerges. In this paper I identify two fundamental network characteristics, boundary consistency and neighborhood overlap, that determine the outcome of all symmetric, binary-choice, network games. In quasi-consistent networks these games converge to an absorbing state regardless of the initial distribution of actions, and the degree to which neighborhoods overlap impacts the number and composition of those absorbing states.