A novel profit cutting mechanism for Chinese Banks: Theory and Multi-dimensional evidence

As China’s macroeconomic growth faces increasing pressure from the global COVID-19 pandemic, a surprising and politically controversial phenomenon has emerged: the profitability of banks in China exceeded that of enterprises and non-financial industries. The People’s Bank of China and regulatory authorities have hence taken measures to incentivize banks to transfer part of their profits to enterprises, with the aim to stabilize enterprises and employment. This paper proposes a novel profit cutting mechanism focusing on loan structure adjustments to address the limitations of the current approach centering on lowering loan interest rates. The theoretical and empirical analysis show, at both the macro and micro level, that an increase in the proportion of credit loans can benefit the development of enterprises without weakening banks’ operating performance in the long term, leading to a Pareto improvement within enterprise-banking sectors. The findings suggest that banks in China should gradually adjust their loan structures by providing greater credit loan access to enterprises, either voluntarily or directed by policy.     

The evaluation of Istanbul airspace design from the perspective of complexity and safety

The approach, descent, and climb phases of flights in terminal maneuvering areas (TMAs) are some of the critical parts of a flight in which more than half of accidents happen. For an ANSP (Air Navigation Service Provider), to fulfill the responsibility with a high-quality service degree while maintaining safety, these difficult areas should be designed carefully and equipped with the most efficient procedures. Point merge system (PMS), which is defined as a systemized method for sequencing arrival flows, is launched in Istanbul's new TMA (LTFM TMA) being designed by DHMI (Devlet Hava Meydanları Isletmesi) to improve safety and efficiency. In this paper, the airspace complexity is based on adjusted density and structural index, and safety indicators. To investigate the effects of the radical changes made in re-organized LTFM TMA on the safety issue in comparison with the previous terminal maneuvering area, LTBA TMA, six months' data consisting of 75215 arrival and departure flights are used. Results reflect that the LTFM TMA, one of the world's busiest terminal airspaces, has statistically significantly lower scores in terms of conflict numbers per aircraft, complexity metrics, adjusted density, the hour of interactions, and flight hours than LTBA TMA. Lastly, there exists no longer a significant relationship between conflict types and complexity after launching the new design and structure.     

技术型企业过往绩效对团队创新行为的影响：关系冲突的中介效应

基于IMOI模型，引入具备动态特征的“过往绩效”概念，利用长三角地区101个项目导向型研发团队问卷数据，依据社会信息处理理论和归因理论探讨过往绩效对团队创新行为的影响效果与内在机制。结果发现，过往绩效与团队创新行为显著正相关，关系冲突在过往绩效影响创新行为路径中起部分中介作用，并且关系冲突的中介机制在中国“人情”文化背景下能得到更好的解释；进一步，团队内部的恶意归因倾向在这一过程中发挥着调节作用。研究结果有助于从新视角探索技术型团队创新行为诱发机制，对双创背景下技术型企业创新管理实践具有一定参考意义。     

Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.     

Managing the risk of loan prepayments and the optimal structure of short term lending rates

Loan pricing is an extremely important aspect of bank operations because loans are typically over two-thirds of bank assets. Many researchers have analyzed the theoretical and empirical impact of how different factors should and do affect fixed rate loan rates and loan prepayments. However, a theoretical decision making model for maximizing expected profit in a declining rate environment has not been developed. After describing the conditions for the optimal loan rate, we develop numerical solutions for it under varying conditions. The varying conditions include the trend in interest rates, volatility of interest rates, and loan maturity. We thank Yen Low and Hamed Bagherpour for their assistance.     

基于国家利益的非均衡金融监管国际合作解析

运用供求理论和模型分析金融监管国际合作供求非均衡现状,可以发现,在开放程度、经济体制、金融结构方面的差异是造成金融监管国际合作非均衡的主要原因。据此,应基于国家利益建立分层次的金融监管国际合作;加强国家之间的沟通机制;统一会计准则,加强信息披露合作,推动金融监管国际合作的进步。     

内外均衡冲突下的人民币汇率政策选择:基于斯旺模型的研究

本文以斯旺模型为理论基础,研究了当前中国经济内外均衡,中突,并对内外均衡冲突下的汇率政策和货币政策之间的冲突进行了深入分析。根据斯旺模型,这两种冲突的解决要求当前实行紧缩国内支出政策和人民币升值政策的配合。因此,汇率政策的选择就变得至关重要。当然要解决当前经济内外均衡冲突,还需要其他政策的配合。     

理顺和规范Shibor决定机制的思考

由于目前Shibor与存贷款利率之间没有稳定联系,因而它还不能算基准利率。发挥Shibor的基准利率功能是推进利率市场化的关键,而要规范和完善Shibor的功能,则不能只关注Shibor操作的本身,更要分析决定Shibor的变量所处的状态,以及Shibor在利率体系中的地位,只有消除造成Shibor扭曲的变量,并使Shibor处于核心主导地位,Shibor才能成为调控利率体系的基准利率。     

金融自由化能提高储蓄率吗？——来自三个发展中国家的实证

经济理论及一些国家的经验都表明金融自由化能提高储蓄率,但是近年来学者的研究并没有得到这一结论。本文对已有的模型进行重新设定,通过三个发展中国家:智利、马来西亚、韩国的经验证据来继续探讨金融自由化对储蓄率的效应,研究结果表明,有稳健的证据支持金融自由化促进储蓄率上涨的结论,且该结论对中国有显著的现实意义。     

Information flows within financial conglomerates: Evidence from the banks–mutual funds relation

We study how information flows within financial conglomerates by analyzing the relations between mutual funds and banks that belong to the same financial group. We investigate the effect that the lending behavior of affiliated banks has on the portfolio choice of the mutual funds that are part of the same group. We show that funds (fund families) increase their stakes in the firms that borrow from their affiliated banks in the period following the deal by far greater amounts than other unaffiliated funds (fund families). We provide evidence that this strategy is information-driven. The performance of the positions of affiliated funds in the stocks of borrowing firms exceeds that of their other positions in nonborrowing stocks located in the same industry as well as that of other stocks having similar characteristics by up to 1.6% per month. Funds increase (decrease) their stock holdings in those borrowing stocks that subsequently provide positive (negative) abnormal returns, suggesting that they exploit privileged inside information not available to other market participants. This behavior is prevalent largely in funds located in close geographic proximity to their lending banks. Furthermore, it is exhibited mostly by young, small, and poorly performing fund families. Our evidence points to information flows within conglomerates through informal channels such as personal acquaintances.