Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors

The structure of income is a foremost address within research on banks’ performance, especially with regard to effects on the resilience of banks’ earnings. Indeed, given their central position in the economy, banks shall thrive to generate sustainable earnings and control for their potential volatility. Existing studies mostly consider the weight of non‐net interest income (nonNII) as opposed to the traditional NII income source. Such aggregated nonNII is found to increase earnings risk but more granular studies conflict. We propose an original investigation of the influence of economic and financial conditions on various income types, assuming that performance may actually be driven by both the income structure and external conditions. We focus European banks, which have long been allowed to diversify beyond retail banking. Out of a straight panel framework, we question if the influence of external conditions spreads to earnings components other than credit losses and trading income and if it does allow for diversification benefits among components. We find that each component actually evolves owing to its own equation. Furthermore, effects of single variables may cumulate over different components of earnings (e.g. GDP) or provide with diversification benefits. These effects are all the more important since they are not mitigated by operating expenses. Hence, over a regarded period, banks’ performance depends upon their structure of income and upon volatilities and correlations of influential variables. Besides controlling for ex‐ante volatility, our approach shows that a given structure of income is not necessarily more resilient than others but that selected non‐banking income may support a higher stability of Earnings     

货币与伦理的关系探究

货币和伦理的关系实际上是经济因素和非经济因素的关系,货币是伦理道德历史变化的动因之一,同时二者又是互动的。货币和伦理可以融合而成为货币伦理,利益是两者联系的中介。     

Shibor革命及其经济意义

本文主要阐述Shibor的推出对经济的重大意义。文章先回顾了我国利率市场化的进程,提出推出Shibor的背景,然后分析以Shibor为核心来推进利率市场化改革的必要性;在此基础上,分析以Shibor为核心的利率市场化改革对于推动货币政策传导机制的转型、促进商业银行经营管理机制的转型、引导非金融企业和家庭的支出和减缓宏观经济波动等方面的意义。文章最后是简要的结束语。     

利率管制、LPR与完全市场化下的货币政策传导机制:理论对比与实证检验

2019年8月,中国人民银行正式启用修订后的贷款基础利率（LPR）,标志着中国利率市场化改革步入收官阶段。这使得有关利率市场化能否保障货币政策有效性并从根本上改善货币政策传导效率的探讨再度成为焦点。鉴于此,文章构建了DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型,详细对比了不同市场化程度下利率政策的有效性和传导效率,主要得出以下三点结论：第一,随着市场化程度的不断加深,产出、通胀与企业价值对利率调控的反应愈加敏感,表明利率市场化改革能够优化利率的宏微观传导效率;第二,模拟分析显示,完全市场化将会大幅降低利率政策的宏观传导效率,同时还可能诱发逆向选择并导致微观传导渠道失灵,因此货币当局仍应对利率完全市场化持必要谨慎;最后,实证检验结果表明,LPR的推出进一步提高了利率传导效率,这说明在完全市场化的初级阶段,采取LPR等过渡元素逐渐加强市场定价主导地位不失为双轨合一过程中的有益尝试。     

利率市场化对中国商业银行经营效率的影响

本文基于利率市场化背景,对中国商业银行的经营效率进行研究。文章聚焦商业银行经营效率的理念,针对发达国家利率市场化过程中商业银行经营效率体现的特征进行归纳,并结合我国利率市场化背景下商业银行经营业绩指标进行分析,最后提出从经营理念、业务结构、客户选择、资产负债管理、成本控制、风险管理等六方面提高商业银行管理水平,优化商业银行经营效率。     

利率市场化形势下松原市农村信用社贷款利率定价机制存在的问题及对策

2015年5月1日《存款保险条例》的出台,标志着我国利率市场化工作已基本完成。但在这样的大背景下,松原市农村信用社贷款利率仍然执行“一刀切”的利率政策。这在一定程度上制约了农村信用社的发展。农村信用社贷款利率定价机制缺失,定价不合理的问题突显。对于以农业经济发展为主的松原市来说,做为支农主力军的农村信用社,面对这种多元化矛盾的金融市场,如何努力提高款定价技术水平,科学合理地调整贷款定价方式,把信贷支农和贷款定价机制有效整合,对增加金融支农力度,实现金融信贷支农的“双赢”有着非常重要的意义。     

保护规范理论的引入与问题——基于最高法院裁判的观察

保护规范理论的引入,符合我国主观诉讼为主的行政诉讼法制构造和拓宽原告资格的修法宗旨,为原告资格的“利害关系”判断标准提供了分析框架。然而最高法院对该理论的理解和适用仍存在不足： 忽视了该理论的适用前提和作用范围,在具体操作上尚未形成清晰稳定的思路;作为解释对象的法规范围尚不明确,规范目的的解释过于依赖特别条款的明确规定和笼统的立法目的。为充分发挥保护规范理论扩大权益救济的功能,应明确该理论旨在解决的问题是查明主观公权利,诉请保护之利益的法律属性不明是该理论适用的前提,在具体操作中合理确定保护规范的范围,对规范目的作体系化解释及合宪性考量。     

中国上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性估计

企业投资对资本成本的敏感性是识别货币政策利率传导渠道是否畅通以及IS曲线斜率的重要参数。本文基于新古典投资模型框架,使用2004-2017年中国上市公司非平衡面板数据,估计了中国上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性,并侧重检验了融资约束对企业投资资本成本敏感性的影响。估计结果显示:(1)上市企业投资的加权资本成本弹性显著为负,且已具有较强敏感性(长期弹性系数为-0.16～-0.27),价格型货币政策工具的传导条件在上市公司投资环节正逐渐具备 ;(2)对加权资本成本的结构性估计显示,企业投资主要对债务资本成本的变动较为敏感且系数显著为负,而对股权资本成本的变动敏感程度较低且不稳定;(3)与传统观点相反的是,非国有控股上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性显著低于国有控股上市企业;较强的融资约束是导致非国有控股上市企业投资的资本成本敏感性较低的重要原因,应重视民营经济面临较强的融资约束对价格型货币政策工具传导机制的负面影响。本文的研究为中国货币政策框架的转型以及价格型货币政策传导机制的有效性提供了微观经验证据的支持。     

Corporate culture and analyst catering

This study examines the relation between financial institutions’ corporate culture and the quality of analysts’ research services. Using data collected from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, I measure the weakness of financial institutions’ corporate culture based on violations observed in securities activities unrelated to equity research. I find evidence demonstrating an association between weak corporate culture and analysts’ providing research products catered to institutional clients at the expense of individual investors. Specifically, FINRA violations are associated with both (i) less accurate forecasts and less informative reports, and (ii) higher institutional commission revenues and more broker-hosted conferences for select institutional clients.     

Types of technological scanning in manufacturing SMEs: an empirical analysis of patterns and determinants

As the component of environmental scanning that is concerned with science and technology, products, production processes, hardware and information systems, the concept of technological scanning, especially in small business, has received little empirical attention in the past. This paper aims to better define the different technological scanning practices of small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) and identify the main factors that determine these differences. This is done without relation to organizational effectiveness as technological scanning is but one of many potential influences on business performance. Using data obtained from a mail survey on the scanning practices of 324 SMEs, the study hopes to increase our understanding of how various entrepreneurs confront various environments in practice. The research model used is based on the notion that, to define different technological scanning practices in small business, four aspects must be considered: strategic orientation (objectives pursued); types of information sought (on technologies and their costs, human resources necessary, etc.); sources used (customers, fairs, specialized publications, suppliers, research centres, etc.); and scanning management practices (methods used, staff involved, level of formalization, and integration of activities). These aspects are contingent upon four factors: the managers' profile; their perception of the environment; their firm's characteristics; and their information network. A cluster analysis reveals that the sampled firms can be grouped into four separate categories, according to the intensity of their technological scanning activities and the type of strategy used. In the first category, where scanning is most developed, the SMEs emphasize cost reduction and control, followed by improvements in competitiveness; they seek mainly financial and human resource information, and use their own internal resources to obtain it. A second category, where scanning is least developed, puts the emphasis on increasing production capacity and flexibility; these SMEs seek very diverse information from many sources. Of the two intermediate groups, one aims to diversify and increase the quality of products and services; marketing information is obtained through customers, suppliers and subcontractors. The other, whose scanning is better organized, favours increasing production capacity through innovation and market information with the help of governmental and financial institutions. This research concludes that there is no ‘one best way’ to environmental scanning in manufacturing SMEs, and that it all depends upon the organization, its objectives and its environmental pressures.