资源枯竭型城市工矿用地退出利益冲突及解决策略研究

深度挖掘工矿用地的潜在价值将满足资源枯竭型城市转型发展过程中的用地需求,减小政府的土地开发成本,保障有限的土地资源得到最有效使用。本文以工矿企业持续退出,城市转型发展对建设用地需求增大为背景,以地方政府、工矿企业、投资商为主要利益相关者,构建完全信息动态博弈模型,分析工矿用地退出中存在的利益冲突。研究表明:地方政府、工矿企业、投资商在工矿用地退出过程中将会以各自所能获利多少进行博弈。只有各利益主体积极表达利益诉求,厘清产权归属,使各利益主体均衡享有工矿用地退出收益才能更好实现退出进程。     

利率管制、LPR与完全市场化下的货币政策传导机制:理论对比与实证检验

2019年8月,中国人民银行正式启用修订后的贷款基础利率(LPR),标志着中国利率市场化改革步入收官阶段。这使得有关利率市场化能否保障货币政策有效性并从根本上改善货币政策传导效率的探讨再度成为焦点。鉴于此,文章构建了DSGE模型和TVP-VAR模型,详细对比了不同市场化程度下利率政策的有效性和传导效率,主要得出以下三点结论:第一,随着市场化程度的不断加深,产出、通胀与企业价值对利率调控的反应愈加敏感,表明利率市场化改革能够优化利率的宏微观传导效率;第二,模拟分析显示,完全市场化将会大幅降低利率政策的宏观传导效率,同时还可能诱发逆向选择并导致微观传导渠道失灵,因此货币当局仍应对利率完全市场化持必要谨慎;最后,实证检验结果表明,LPR的推出进一步提高了利率传导效率,这说明在完全市场化的初级阶段,采取LPR等过渡元素逐渐加强市场定价主导地位不失为双轨合一过程中的有益尝试。     

Credit distortion and financial crisis

A simple and consistent theory based on credit distortion is developed to understand the origin of financial crises in the emerging markets. We prove that without the guarantee of various government agencies on the credit risk of foreign loans, the interest rate on foreign loans would be the same as the domestic loans, which would eliminate the incentive to borrow foreign loans on a great scale. We demonstrate that the common phenomena preluding the crisis, such as heavy foreign borrowing and overinvestment in real estate, are rational choices when a particular currency is overvalued and cheap credit is available.     

当前我国利率与汇率的相关性分析及政策建议

在经济充分开放的国家,利率、汇率与资本流动之间存在不可忽视的紧密联系。利率变化引发套利资本流动,直接导致汇率的升值或贬值,汇率这种变动进而又反过来影响资本流动,影响利率。利率和汇率之间的这种关系被称为利率平价关系。本文采用利率平价模型分析了当前我国利率与汇率的相关性,并对我国的利率与汇率制度改革提出建议。     

Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments under velocity and fiscal shocks

This paper, in the spirit of Poole [Poole, William, 1970. The Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Macro Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, 192–216.], studies how differently monetary and fiscal shocks influence the appropriate choice of the monetary policy regime. Velocity shocks are introduced by embedding a stochastic cash-in-advance constraint within the New Keynesian framework. In addition to optimal policy under discretion, three classic rules, interest rate targeting, monetary targeting, and the Taylor rule are ranked under both fiscal and velocity shocks. The non-stationarity of prices under the Taylor rule makes it inferior to the other rules under which prices are stationary. Monetary targeting, by stabilizing aggregate demand under fiscal shocks, outperforms interest rate targeting, while the latter provides a better insulation against velocity shocks. Monetary targeting (under fiscal shocks) and interest rate targeting (under velocity shocks) even outperform the optimal policy under discretion for sufficiently high intertemporal elasticities of consumption substitution.     

Local democracy implications for coastal zone management—A case study in southern Norway

Stakeholder participation is frequently recommended to ensure that public values are taken into account in the decision-making processes. However, few attempts have been made to analyse the extent to which increasing stakeholder participation actually leads to better representation of the public values. The main aim of this study is to obtain more insights about reasons why the most frequently applied form of stakeholder participation, i.e. the public hearings, may fail in representing the general public views and values when applied at a local level. A case study was conducted on policy formulations and decision-making in the coastal zone on the island Flekkerøy in southern Norway. Local- and regional-public authorities contributed in in-depth interviews and with written documentation to inform about a comprehensive stakeholder participation process that took place in the early 1990s. The main findings include that landowner interests, and not public views and values, were legitimised during the participatory process because of: (1) the landowner's strong local social power among inhabitants, (2) the design of the participatory processes favouring the landowner interests, (3) the personal relations between local landowners and public managers, and (4) the low representation of public views and values due to a problem of scale, i.e. the NIMBY syndrome. Based on our experience, we recommend improving representation of public views by changing the frequently applied participatory processes to also include citizens in addition to interest groups and experts.     

货币政策对我国投资水平影响的实证分析

投资是整个宏观经济体系运转过程中非常重要的一个环节,而货币政策对投资水平的作用是一个受到广泛关注的问题。理论界普遍的共识是,至少在短期内货币政策还是能对一国投资总水平产生影响。本文运用VAR模型、IRF检验及格兰杰因果关系检验,对我国货币政策与投资水平的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示,包括货币供给量、利率、汇率等在内的货币政策工具对总投资水平都会产生影响,相比较而言,货币供给量和利率的影响更大,持续时间更长。基于此,本文提出了通过适当减少货币供给量、调整利率和放开汇率等途径来提高投资水平的政策建议。     

权利冲突的原因分析

权利冲突是日常生活中一种普遍的现象，它的存在给人们的生活带来了极大的不便。破坏了人类和谐共存的要求。在此，本文就权利冲突产生的原因进行初步的探讨，以便于对其有更好的了解，也为解决这种现象提供一个方向。     

中国信贷市场利率与经济波动:2004-2010

本文基于VAR和VEC模型对我国信贷市场利率与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)投资、消费对于信贷市场利率的冲击处于负的脉冲响应,投资的响应更显著。投资、消费对信贷市场利率的影响非常有限。(2)投资波动对产出波动起主要作用;产出对投资波动和消费波动的影响程度有限;(3)信贷市场利率与投资、消费、产出之间存在长期均衡关系。基于这些分析结论,文章提出若干政策建议。     

Fiscal expansion, monetary policy, interest rate risk premia, and wage reactions

We examine the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy in a small open economy, with emphasis on the interactions between fiscal, monetary and labour market policies. The paper uses the NBNZ-DEMONZ macroeconometric model. Novel features of the model are that it includes an endogenous interest rate risk premium (IRRP), and forward-looking monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions which capture the essence of New Zealand's Reserve Bank and Fiscal Responsibility Acts. The most important empirical result is that the postulated IRRP, proxying financial market mechanisms, can contribute at least as much as the monetary policy reaction function to maintaining price stability. Also of significance are that an income tax cuts package shows more damped real GDP and underlying inflation paths than does an expenditure increases equivalent; and that the inflationary and real sector impacts of a personal income tax cut package depend heavily on how the cut is `shared' between firms and workers. The nature and interdependence of monetary and fiscal policies and labour market conditions are therefore crucial to the macroeconomic outcomes.