我国生产性服务业与制造业互动需求结构及发展态势

本研究采用投入产出法与比较分析方法,对典型国家(或地区)的生产性服务业与制造业的互动需求结构进行分析。研究发现,经济发展水平、服务业发展水平、生产性服务业性质、制造业性质四方面是影响生产性服务业与制造业需求结构的重要因素。本文从四要素发展特点总结了生产性服务业与制造业需求的国际发展态势,即随着经济发展水平与服务业发展水平的提高,生产性服务业由对制造业需求显著转为对自身需求显著,而生产性服务业内部由以非知识密集型服务业为主导逐步转向以知识密集型服务业为主导。结合我国现状,本文最后提出了推动我国两类产业互动发展的若干政策建议。     

A simple proof of the existence of an equilibrium when the weak axiom holds

An elementary proof of the existence of a competitive equilibrium is given for economies where the weak axiom holds. It is shown by an induction argument on the number of goods that the problem is reduced to the question of the existence of an equilibrium in a two-good economy.     

百姓心理预期对房价的影响

首先简单分析了影响房价的因素;接着主要通过供给和需求方面、正常的心理预期和非正常的心理预期两个方面,详细分析论证了心理预期是如何对房价产生影响的;最后为了使宏观政策很好的发挥效用,对正确的引导百姓的心理预期,提出了几条建议。     

The Stability of the Demand for Money in Monetary Unions: Some Empirical Evidence from WAEMU

Previous studies of the stability of the demand for money have been largely conducted in the context of individual countries. To the extent that these countries have control over their monetary policies, such an approach is well justified. However, for monetary unions, where the control over monetary policy is usually vested in a central or outside authority, it is more appropriate to examine the stability of the money demand for the union as a collective entity. This paper follows this approach with respect to a West African monetary union, the WAEMU, whose monetary policies are largely dictated by the French authorities. Using cointegration theory and CUSUM stability tests, we find evidence that the demand for broad money is stable in this union. Given the empirical results, the paper draws inferences regarding their implications for the formulation of optimal monetary policy for the WAEMU.     

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.     

The Challenge of Obtaining Quality Care: Limited Consumer Sovereignty in Human Services

Abstract

This paper offers a conceptual analysis of the problem of quality in human services: in elementary school, psychiatric care, and the health and social care of children, the elderly, and the intellectually disabled. Geriatric nursing home patients are used as a case. These care recipients cannot enforce their legal right to quality service; their quality-effective demand is low. Formal economic analyses often characterize the weak position of the care recipient as an information asymmetry problem. An additional obstacle, however, is the recipient's inability to safeguard her personal interest due to physical, mental, or social incapacities; that is, “limited consumer sovereignty.” Incapacitated individuals cannot enforce quality even when quality information is available. This creates a fundamental incentive problem in the monitoring of quality. They also depend on services that are complex and non-verifiable, making external monitoring difficult. This paper presents a typology of measures to increase the quality pressure facing providers.     

中国资源的供求格局及其前景展望

在对我国资源的基本条件、资源消费的现状与未来资源消费的前景进行分析的基础上,得出:我国资源的基本条件决定国内资源的自我保障能力较差,加之未来10年~15年将是我国矿产资源消费的快速增长阶段,使得我国重要矿产的总量保障明显不足,资源结构性矛盾突出,大宗矿产资源的对外依存度将进一步上升,同时资源分布与工业布局不匹配问题将变得更加突出。最后,结合国内外矿产资源的形势,提出了影响未来我国资源保障能力的几个潜在因素。     

A Conceptual Model of Medical Tourism: Implications for Future Research

An extensive review of the current literature reveals that no integrated theoretical framework for the holistic study of the medical tourism industry exists. This study, therefore, aims to fill this gap by proposing an integrated model for the investigation of this burgeoning tourism field. It is developed with a view to capturing the current situation of medical tourism in a given country or region from the supply and demand perspectives. Both qualitative and quantitative techniques are suggested as systematic tools to test and validate the model. This study not only has implications for future research, but also provides useful information for practitioners in the medical tourism industry.     

The Methodological Progress of Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Review of Related Literature

Research on modeling the estimation and forecasting of tourism demand has evolved with increasing sophistication and improved quality. In this study, 155 research papers published between 1995 and 2009 were identified and were classified into three main groups according to the methods and techniques adopted—an econometric-based approach, time series techniques, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. It appears that the more advanced methods such as cointegration, error correction model, time varying parameter model, and their combinations with systems of equations produce better results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also discuss the implications and suggest future directions of tourism research techniques and methods.     

Latin American Tourism

Summary

Blessed with a great diversity of natural and cultural assets, the countries of Latin America should be thriving as international tourist destinations. The reality is, however, that the region is a long way from reaching its full potential. This paper reports the findings of a survey that investigated the reasons why Australian travel agents and tour operators thought that Latin America was receiving so few tourists from Australia. The main finding of the study was that there is a lack of knowledge among travel agents about the Latin American region. Many of them could only identify a limited number of tourist attractions in the region. While the study has an Australian focus, the authors suggest that the barriers underlying the lack of international demand for Latin American tourism products are similar to those that exist in other potential source markets.