Forecasting CPI inflation components with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks

We present a hierarchical architecture based on recurrent neural networks for predicting disaggregated inflation components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the majority of existing research is focused on predicting headline inflation, many economic and financial institutions are interested in its partial disaggregated components. To this end, we developed the novel Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (HRNN) model, which utilizes information from higher levels in the CPI hierarchy to improve predictions at the more volatile lower levels. Based on a large dataset from the US CPI-U index, our evaluations indicate that the HRNN model significantly outperforms a vast array of well-known inflation prediction baselines. Our methodology and results provide additional forecasting measures and possibilities to policy and market makers on sectoral and component-specific price changes.     

消费者群体隐性需求濡染扩散模式研究

在进行营销模式的本土化创新以及开创新的市场空间时，关注创新采用的隐性需求及其在关联需求网络中的扩散机制，对于洞察消费者隐性需求的层次，细分消费者的群体特征以及进行产品和市场创新均具有重要意义。     

评大西广《关于钓鱼岛主权之争的思考》

钓鱼岛领土争议在中日两国引发起民族主义的惊天骇浪,两国知识界也被卷进这场国权之争,双方学者各执一词,剑拔弩张。但是,在日本,也能够听到一些有历史洞见力和远见卓识的学者,站在公正的立场上所发表的具有良知和良识的声音。京都大学名誉教授、庆应义塾大学教授,日本著名经济外交研究专家大西广就是其中的代表人物。今年8月27日,他在由京都大学经济学研究科东亚经济研究中心主办的东亚经济研究通讯《京大东亚中心新闻简报（第432号）》上发表了署名文章《关于钓鱼岛主权之争的思考》。在该文中,作者客观公允地表达了自己的主张。以下,笔者就其主要观点略作评述,以飨读者。     

流动性约束下我国居民消费行为的二元结构与地区差异

本文构建了状态空间模型和跨省面板数据模型,就不确定性和流动性约束等对我国居民消费行为影响进行比较分析,结果表明:1978年以来,收入的不确定性对城镇居民消费行为的负面影响要大于农村居民;城镇居民面临的流动性约束相对小于农村居民;城镇居民面对利率的替代效应要大于收入效应,而农村居民与之相反。1995年以来,收入和支出的不确定性对我国居民整体消费行为的影响并不显著,但与东中部地区居民消费变动正相关;我国居民消费面临的流动约束整体来看并不严重,但中部地区居民相对而言面临更强的流动性约束。     

有限理性下消费者的贪心选择行为分析

有限理性情况下的消费者选择决策分析是对传统消费行为学研究的补充和发展。本文在消费者有限理性与效用理论的基础上,以消费者在有限理性范围内购买活动中效用最大化为原则,建立消费者的贪心选择模型,分析消费者的购买行为,证明消费者在购买过程中的选择行为所呈现出贪心选择性质,并分析证明消费者在有限理性条件下,以贪心选择出发进行的购买选择使消费者效用达到全局最优的条件。     

WHITHER CONSUMER PROTECTION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS? LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1857

Consumer protection regulation has not prevented a collapse of trust in financial markets. Theories underlying regulatory intervention require review. In the financial crisis of 1857, firms rather than public authorities restored consumer confidence. Future regulatory regimes may permit greater scope for market-based design of consumer protection measures.     

The effect of controversial global sourcing practices on the ethical judgments and intentions of U.S. consumers

Global sourcing has led to lower cost and more effective supply chains for many companies. However, when the cost-driven practices of many suppliers in these chains come to light there is often considerable debate over the ethics of these practices. This research uses the well-known Hunt–Vitell framework as the theoretical foundation for a structural equation model of the deontological and teleological evaluations used by consumers when making ethical judgments of a firm's controversial cost-driven global sourcing practices. Data from a large-scale U.S. consumer survey show the importance of deontological and teleological evaluations in forming consumers’ ethical judgments of global sourcing practices, and establish a strong relationship between ethical judgment and the intention of consumers to alter consumption of a firm's products. Extensions to the framework and demographic analyses for age, gender, and income provide insights as to how perceptions of these practices affect consumer evaluations of a company involved in global sourcing and how consumers actualize their resultant intentions.     

Observing discussion forums and product innovation – A way to create consumer value? Case heart-rate monitors

This paper demonstrates how discussion forums can be used in product innovation to create value with consumers. The literature shows the value of sport addicts and hobbyists as innovators in product innovation, consequently this study is also related and relevant to sports activities. It is an empirical study based on substantial qualitative data collected from 28 discussion forums, of which 20 of the longest discussions were chosen for qualitative analysis. This paper complements the academic literature by providing information about consumer value creation in discussion forums without company interaction. The discussions contain basic, performance and excitement factors, of which performance factors are the most abundant. Both product improvement ideas and consumers eager to participate in innovation can be found in the discussions. A key to success for a company is a systematic plan showing the potential use of the extensive information in the discussions. This paper introduces closed company innovative forums which are maintained or product innovation evangelists to direct the discussion and keep consumers interested in participation. This is a new means to find out and further develop promising ideas for product innovation with consumers.     

消费情感对感知风险和行为意向的影响

随着信息经济的迅猛发展,网络环境下的消费者行为越来越被广大的商家和学者所关注。本文探讨顾客消费情感与感知风险和行为意向的关系。在文献研究的基础上,提出了概念模型,并通过对旅游电子商务网站作实证调查,运用结构方程模型分析等分析方法,对这个模型进行了实证检验,得出以下结论：1、正面消费情感对感知风险有显著的负向影响;负面消费情感对感知风险有显著的正向影响;2、正面消费情感对行为意向有显著的正向影响,负面消费情感对行为意向有显著的负向影响;3、感知风险对行为意向有显著的负向影响。