股票财富、信号传递与中国城镇居民消费

本文尝试在消费者最优选择模型基础上,通过引入居民的借贷约束和预防性储蓄,推导出能够检验股市的财富效应、信号传递效应和不对称效应的实证分析框架,并利用中国的季度数据考察中国股市变动对居民消费的影响。与国内相关文献所得结论不同,本文的研究表明:如果不仅考虑股票价格变动的财富效应,而且考虑其信号传递效应,那么中国股票市场对城镇居民消费存在着较为明显的影响。分析也表明,如果用工资而不是人均可支配收入度量人力资本回报,中国股票市场同样存在正的财富效应,且这种财富效应具有明显的不对称性,反映经济基本面变化的股价变动对中国居民消费具有长期影响,投机因素引起的股价变动对中国居民消费的影响甚微。     

Endogenous fluctuations in unionized economies with productive externalities

Summary. We discuss the effects of unions on steady-state multiplicity and welfare, and on the existence of endogenous fluctuations. We consider an OG economy with productive capital externalities and we focus on underemployment equilibria. We find that for wide regions in the parameter space, including an arbitrarily small degree of externalities and a Cobb-Douglas technology, unions increase steady state employment and welfare, and local indeterminacy (sunspots) emerges. Moreover with a CES technology multiplicity of steady states is only possible in the presence of unions. Our results also show that the role of unions in shaping local dynamics and bifurcations depends on technology (externalities and factors substitutability).Received: 16 January 2002, Revised: 18 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: E32, J51, D60, D62. Correspondence to: Leonor ModestoThis paper is a much revised version of our former working paper Unions, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations. Financial support from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia under the POCTI, is gratefuly acknowledged.     

基于信息熵的城镇居民消费结构演变分析——以福建省为例

从消费结构信息熵的基本理论入手,以1995～2006年福建城镇居民家庭消费构成数据、恩格尔系数、基尼系数为基本数据,分析得出城镇居民消费结构逐步升级且消费支出向更高的层面转换的结论。并针对未来的经济发展趋势,提出居民消费结构升级转换的若干对策建议。     

基于扩展线性支出系统(ELES)的城镇居民消费需求分析——以广西为例

从基本消费需求、需求的收入弹性、边际消费倾向及增量投向系数等角度,运用ELES模型对2010年《广西统计年鉴》提供的城镇居民收入、消费支出等数据进行分析,探讨优化城镇居民消费结构的途径。     

高校消费主义的危害性及其抵御

消费主义导致大学生消费价值观取向出现偏差,使得大学生出现精神危机,让高校学生心理产生不平衡感,不和谐因素开始在校园衍生,对高校师生的思想道德建设产生重要影响.高校的当务之急是践行以"俭"为核心的消费价值观,采取包括开设消费教育课程等等在内的措施予以应对.     

生产性过剩条件下中国宏观经济政策取向探讨

目前我国之所以出现生产性过剩，商品过剩为其直接原因，生产和消费关系失调为其根本原因。为此，国家宏观经济政策应由主要调控投资转向主要调控消费，以消费带动投资。     

Local elections and consumption insurance

During our sample period from 1987 to 2002, Chinese villages completed the transition from government‐appointed village leaders to elected ones. This article examines if and how much democratic elections of the village leaders affected consumption insurance by Chinese village residents. Exploring a panel dataset of 1,400 households from this period, we find that consumption insurance is around 20 percent more complete with elected village leaders. Furthermore, local elections improve consumption insurance only for the poor and middle‐income farmers, but not for the rich. The results are robust when we allow for pretrending, potential endogeneity of elections, and higher measurement errors for rich residents. We also find that the effects on consumption insurance are stronger when closer to the upcoming election year and when the village committees consist largely of non‐Communist Party members. These findings suggest that the election effects on consumption insurance partly come from increasing accountability to local constituents.     

城市环境外部性的经济分析与对策研究

本文将就环境外部性的特点进行经济分析,提出运用经济学、伦理学及政治学综合性知识,在追求高效率、确立道德约束、建立政治规则和明确衡量标准的基础上,制定治理环境外部性的积极对策。     

Taxes and labor supply: Portugal, Europe, and the United States

I relate hours worked with taxes on consumption and labor for Portugal, France, Spain, United Kingdom and United States. From 1986 to 2001, hours per worker in Portugal decreased from 35.1 to 32.6. With the parameters for Portugal, the model predicts hours worked in 2001 with an error of only 12 min from the actual hours. Across countries, most predictions differ from the data by 1 h or less. The model is not sensible to special assumptions on the parameters. I calculate the long run effects of taxes on consumption, hours, capital and welfare for Portugal. I extend the model to discuss implications for Social Security. I discuss the steady state and the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded system.

Tari–tax reforms and market access

Reducing taris and increasing consumption taxes is a standard IMF advice to countries that want to open up their economy without hurting government finances. Indeed, theoretical analysis of such a tari–tax reform shows an unambiguous increase in welfare and government revenues. The present paper examines whether the country that implements such a reform ends up opening up its markets to international trade, i.e. whether its market access improves. It is shown that this is not necessarily so. We also show that, comparing to the reform of only taris, the tari–tax reform is a less efficient proposal to follow both as far as it concerns market access and welfare.