The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample

We empirically assess whether the negative response of private consumption and private investment to fiscal consolidation usually expected is reversed. We focus on a sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018 to determine episodes of fiscal consolidations using three alternative measures of the cyclically adjusted primary balance: (1) an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook (WEO) based measure, (2) a Hodrick-Prescott–based measure, and (3) a measure based on Hamilton (2018). We find that, first, increases in government consumption have a Keynesian effect on real per capita private consumption; second, tax increases have a positive effect on private consumption when a fiscal consolidation occurs; and, third, fiscal contraction has a crowding-in effect on private investment. Moreover, expansionary fiscal consolidations occur in highly indebted advanced economies, in particular, after an increase in taxes. We conclude that the negative effects of taxation on private consumption are larger when developing economies are experiencing a financial crisis and are not consolidating.     

长三角地区居民消费结构及水平的统计分析

应用因子分析和聚类分析的方法,对2006年长三角16座城市居民的消费结构、消费水平进行分析和比较。结果表明,长三角16城市在居民可持续消费能力上存在差距,在居民消费结构和消费水平上可分为五类,其中上海、杭州的消费水平最高。文章还对如何提高居民消费水平,促进经济协调发展提出了对策。     

压力利用率与锤耗的关系研究

主要从六面顶压机顶锤对合成块施压的过程中,合成块所承受压力的受力分析,研究压力变化对锤耗的影响,总结出合成块组装高度设计、试验的理论依据,提出了检验组装高度的技术指标,提高设计可靠性,缩短试验周期,减少生产过程中的顶锤消耗。     

关于北美作业成本法实践现状的文献研究

主要以美国管理会计师协会主办的《战略财务》期刊为"窗口",通过回顾2002-2006年的管理会计相关文献,试图对北美作业成本法的运用和发展现状做一描摹,并以此对管理会计发展的历史趋势做出总结。     

中国经济增长与能源消费空间面板分析

近年来面板数据广泛应用于各类统计分析,但变量的空间相关并没有引起足够的重视。本文引入空间面板回归模型研究中国各省市区经济增长和能源消费的关系。利用matlab软件及其spatial econometric模块建立和比较传统面板回归模型与空间面板回归模型,结果表明空间面板回归模型较传统面板回归模型优越,本文的研究为空间面板数据分析提供了一个应用实例。     

Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.     

城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析——以陕西省电力消费为例

运用经济计量方法,实证了陕西省城市化与能源消费之间的动态相关性,并利用因素分解模型定量测算出陕西城市化对能源消费变动的贡献份额.结果表明,陕西省城市化与能源消费量之间存在协整关系.但这种长期均衡的短期调整幅度不大;现阶段城市化对陕西能源需求的贡献作用尚比较小.且呈现逐年下降的趋势.因此,能源需求不会成为制约陕西省城市化进程中的瓶颈.     

Convergences with Schumpeter: An essay Hirschman has yet to write

The paper explores the contributions of Joseph Schumpeter and Albert Hirschman to our understanding of the dynamics of modern democratic capitalist economies and suggests that much of their respective work displays intellectual overlap and complementarity. It is primarily focused upon the role of economic and political processes as forces of change and adjustment and the necessary degree of built-in inertia required to permit orderly rather than chaotic responses.     

消费波动小于产出波动吗?

我们发现东亚主要经济体普遍存在消费波动大于产出波动的现象,初步分析表明这与各经济体的经济转型有关,我国转型期以来比较剧烈的总消费波动应主要归于居民消费行为的转型:(1)以1990年为界,我国居民总消费自经济转型以来的前一个时间段中波动比较剧烈,之后则趋于平稳。进一步地,由于我国的经济改革先从农村开始,而后推进到城镇,相应地农村和城镇居民消费在两个时间段中的波动幅度也出现了明显差异;(2)消费的剧烈波动往往出现在转型早期,在转型后期大部分东亚经济体的消费序列开始变得平稳;(3)耐用品不能解释我国消费的大部分波动性。     

网络游戏市场消费现状分析

文章利用2004年6月西安市网络游戏消费市场调查的数据，分析西安网络游戏的市场现状和目前网络游戏市场的不足，并针对网络运营商、开发商和网吧经营者提出一些建议，以促进网络游戏市场的健康发展。