健康冲击、数字普惠金融与家庭消费

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据和"北京大学数字普惠金融指数",分析健康冲击对家庭消费的影响,以及数字普惠金融在其中所起的作用。基于固定效应模型的实证结果表明,健康冲击显著降低了家庭的非医疗消费支出,但数字普惠金融能有效地减轻这种影响;同时就分指标而言,数字普惠金融指标体系一级维度中的覆盖广度和使用深度,二级维度中的信贷、保险、货币基金以及支付这四个子指标均显著地平滑了冲击下的家庭消费。就作用机制而言,数字普惠金融主要通过缓解家庭流动性约束和强化非正式社交网络来帮助家庭应对健康冲击对消费的影响。异质性分析的回归结果显示,健康冲击对中西部地区、户主受教育水平较低以及金融素养水平较低的家庭影响更大,同时这种影响还与冲击的程度正相关,进而数字普惠金融的积极作用在这部分家庭中表现得更为明显。文章的研究结论进一步阐述了数字普惠金融发展对改善金融包容性的重要现实意义,并在微观层面上解释了数字普惠金融发展对改善家庭福利、防止因病致贫返贫的积极作用。     

债务杠杆、财务脆弱性与家庭异质性消费行为

本文通过引入财务脆弱性来描述家庭无法及时或完全履行偿债义务而发生的财务困境,实证分析了债务杠杆对家庭消费的异质性影响。理论机制分析和基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证研究表明,家庭债务杠杆会提升财务脆弱性,从而弱化跨期消费平滑能力,强化消费预算约束,导致家庭落入“高边际消费倾向、低消费支出水平”的低层次消费路径上。进一步分析发现,对于通过负债投资多套房的家庭而言,高债务杠杆会明显增加不确定冲击下的财务脆弱性,进而对消费产生更大的抑制效应;亲友民间借贷的履约机制相对灵活,可以缓解财务脆弱性对家庭消费的抑制效应;债务杠杆上升引致的财务脆弱性,对耐用消费品支出的压缩效应大于非耐用消费品,对农村家庭消费支出的挤占效应大于城镇家庭。本文的研究为我国“不宜依赖消费金融扩大消费”“规范发展消费信贷”等提供了理论解释,对金融服务促进消费发展具有一定政策启示。     

资产财富和居民消费——来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据

随着"双循环"发展战略的提出，如何提升我国居民消费成为研究热点。与已有研究不同，文章首先从省际视角研究了居民消费行为的影响因素，证实了金融资产和住房资产分别对消费产生的促进作用和抑制作用，且金融资产的促进作用大于住房资产的抑制作用。其次，文章探讨了两种资产对不同种类消费品的影响，金融资产增加主要促进教育娱乐医疗等改善性消费，住房资产增加则主要抑制基本品消费。最后，文章对不同省份居民消费的影响因素进行异质性分析，发现金融资产对消费的促进作用随收入、资产增加先上升后下降，而住房资产对消费的抑制作用随收入、资产增加先上升后下降，金融资产和住房资产在东部地区影响小于西部地区，且受区域教育、人口和收入结构影响。综上来看，提升居民收入水平，改善居民收入结构，控制房价过度上涨，改善资本市场在资产分配中的作用，加大政府在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务方面的投入能够有效改善家庭资产结构，提升居民消费水平。     

Category expansion through cross-channel demand spillovers

Does the local presence of premium branded stores with strong associations to a product group help promote the relevant category as a whole? Based on the Starbucks example, this paper documents such a demand spillover effect for coffee across channels and firms: The firm’s stores stimulate coffee demand in mass-market grocery channels, benefiting rival firms that target consumption at home. I show the spillover at the household level, as well as with retail scanner data, employing a demand model to account for supply-side responses. To establish causality, I use a strict fixed effects specification with trend controls, and also validate the findings using instrumental variables based on the supply-side advantage to operating chain stores in proximate markets. In a representative market, the presence of a Starbucks stores boosts rival packaged coffee sales by 1.2%. The increase appears consistent a consumption stimulation effect of Starbucks stores acting as environmental cues for coffee, their main product. Evidence from other chains confirms the spillover, mainly from more premium brands with high demand-stimulating potential to lower-end mass products. The effect builds over time, and as cue theories predict, interacts positively with past consumption, suggesting a reinforcing effect on consumption habits.     

20世纪50年代的职工储蓄动员与现代国家建设

伴随着现代国家建设,政府对民众日常生活的介入与塑造愈益加深。1949年以后,为了早日向工业国转变,国家选择了高投入、高积累的工业化发展战略,并通过计划经济体制调整国民收入中积累和消费部分的比重,个体消费者的经济活动也因此被纳入国家计划的范畴。储蓄作为一种延期消费,具有调节货币流通、推迟社会购买力、增加生产建设资金的作用。为此,国家加大了对城市居民特别是职工储蓄的推广力度。对银行储蓄的大力提倡和动员,成为国家调整积累与消费关系的重要手段,同时它也在无形中改造了民众传统的经济生活方式和消费习惯。根植于传统“熟人社会”的民间借贷具有强大的生命力,成为现代国家推广银行储蓄的一大阻力。在这种情况下,互助储金会等新型的互助.互济组织应运而生,承担着将职工从民间信贷导向银行储蓄的历史功能。     

Mobile payment apps filling value gaps: Integrating consumption values with initial trust and customer involvement

This study aims to understand the consumption values that positively influence the adoption of mobile payment apps (MPAs). The theory of consumption values and two more constructs, initial trust (INT) and customer involvement (COI) are used to create a model tested using structural equation modeling with data collected from 880 Indian consumers. The results obtained from the analysis identified functional (FUV), conditional (COV), epistemic (EPV), and emotional (EMV) values having a significant positive impact on MPA adoption intention. While INT mediated all consumption values, COI positively moderated the relationship of FUV, EPV, and EMV with adoption intention. The critical contribution is using INT and COI to test the mediating and moderating effect utilizing the theory of consumption values. It explains factors contributing directly and indirectly to MPA adoption intention. The study results demonstrate that all consumption values except social value (SOV) positively influence MPA adoption intention. The cross-sectional data was collected during the pandemic from the urban population, which may not be generalizable with other developed nations. The study suggests that promoters of MPAs must focus more on FUV, COV, EPV, and EMV. Governments can promote MPAs with an increased focus on building trust through policy measures and special drives to increase trustworthiness in MPAs. Businesses could increase efforts to involve customers when introducing MPAs and collate critical information from customer touch points for improved consumer involvement. Through greater usage of MPAs, governments can substantially reduce the cost of printing and handling currency bills, saving taxpayers’ money and diverting it to social spending.     

Model uncertainty,economic development,and welfare costs of business cycles

Some researchers argue that the welfare gains from eliminating consumption fluctuations for the United States are not small once model uncertainty is taken into account. This paper presents new evidence on the welfare gains from eliminating model uncertainty using a data set from a broad range of countries. It quantifies exactly the effect of model uncertainty on the welfare gains using an analytical formula. The results indicate that most countries derive much larger gains from the reduction of model uncertainty compared with the United States. Countries at higher stages of economic development tend to have lower welfare gains because their gains from eliminating model uncertainty become smaller. This relationship does not depend on country size or trade openness.     

Expenditure responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine how the COVID-19 contagion influences consumer expenditure patterns. We show that the consumption expenditure responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are significantly different between the older and younger generations. We find that older adults spend less than the younger generation by at least 5% during the pandemic. In fact, those aged above 60 significantly decrease their spending even on food and drink products by 13%. We also find that older adults forgo shopping in favor of the younger generation. These responses might be due to the fear of COVID-19 infection (Immordino et al., 2022).