Experimental evidence on the ‘insidious’ illiquidity risk

This paper introduces an experiment aiming to investigate the contribution of illiquidity risk to the total risk of a collective investment project. If implemented, the project succeeds with a known probability. Yet the project fails if the quota of investors is not reached in the first place. Hence strategic uncertainty compounds its effect with the “intrinsic risk” of the project. Results confirm the insidious nature of illiquidity: as long as a first collective default does not occur, investors accept high intrinsic risk projects. After a first default, they become extremely prudent and come back to market only gradually. After several defaults, private agents manage to coordinate on a relatively low intrinsic risk above which they refuse to participate in the project. Macroeconomic policy implications follow.     

The transition crisis in Bulgaria

In 1996-97, while making its way through a difficult processof economic and political transformations, Bulgaria was hitby a severe economic crisis. This paper seeks to reveal andanalyse the underlying factors and causes of this crisis. Itfocuses on empirical issues but also highlights some basic causalitiesand interrelations between economic variables during the crisisas well as the role of economic policy. The economic turmoilin Bulgaria is addressed from three different perspectives:(1) the historic roots of the crisis; (2) the actual evolutionof the fiscal, banking and currency crises, and (3) the politicaleconomy of the transition in Bulgaria.     

统筹经济社会协调发展构建和谐社会

经济社会协调发展是现代化社会的必然要求，从国际经验和我国改革开放以来的具体实践看，经济社会发展不协调是当前要解决的主要矛盾，需要我们深化改革，促进经济社会协调发展。     

我国财政政策与货币政策协调配合问题研究

建立科学合理的财政-货币政策协调配合机制,是完善中国宏观经济调控所面临的一项重要任务.本文首先分阶段简要回顺中国财政政策和货币政策协调的历史过程,然后分析两种政策的协调配合存在的问题,认为集中表现为国债市场存在的缺陷以及财政投融资体系小完善这两个方面,最后有针对性地提出改善两种政策协调配合机制的政策建议.     

The fragile capital structure of hedge funds and the limits to arbitrage

During a financial crisis, when investors are most in need of liquidity and accurate prices, hedge funds cut their arbitrage positions and hoard cash. The paper explains this phenomenon. We argue that the fragile nature of the capital structure of hedge funds, combined with low market liquidity, creates a risk of coordination in redemptions among hedge fund investors that severely limits hedge funds' arbitrage capabilities. We present a model of hedge funds' optimal asset allocation in the presence of coordination risk among investors. We show that hedge fund managers behave conservatively and even abstain from participating in the market once coordination risk is factored into their investment decisions. The model suggests a new source of limits to arbitrage.     

浅谈构建我国金融稳定及监管协调机制若干问题

随着金融自由化和金融创新的发展,我国在分业经营的法律框架内实现了实质上的混业经营格局,这要求我国在金融监管体根据实际情况加强各金融监管机构间的金融稳定协调及监管合作,以便有效化解可能的金融风险.     

Investigating guanxi dimensions and relationship outcomes: Insights from Sino-Anglo business relationships

This study aims to develop and test a concept for improving Anglo-Chinese business relationships. By piecing together and incorporating both Chinese and western relationship constructs into a cohesive framework and testing this on a sample of Taiwanese importers, the study conceptually and empirically advances our understanding of the discipline further. Specifically, three facets of guanxi, namely ganqing (an affective element), renqing (reciprocation and favor), and xinren (personal trust) are conceptualized to determine cooperation and coordination, which in turn lead to improved performance. Based on a sample of 208 buyers (surveying perceptions of their relationships with Anglo suppliers), we provide empirical support for our concept and reveal that ganqing, renqing and xinren are crucial for fostering the development of such Sino-Anglo relationships. By providing an international flavor in terms of the constructs outlined and the importer-exporter context, the study provides fresh insights to help broaden our horizon further and understand more about relationships in an international context. Several implications are extracted from the study which a) western marketers importantly need to practice as they grapple to enter Chinese markets and nurture business relations, b) Chinese buyers can consider when managing their supplier portfolios and c) academics can use to help measure important relational constructs and undertaking research in a Chinese context.     

区际产业转移的最佳路径选择研究

从广义空间观看,区际产业转移符合区域可持续发展的客观要求,与区域协调观和节约型社会的本质相一致。但产业转移对区域可持续发展三维度的影响效应存在差异,衰退性产业转移以及招商引资领域环境门槛过低普遍会对承接区域生态安全构成威胁。经过综合利弊权衡,坚持区域可持续发展观是产业转移承接地的最优路径选择。     

关于构建区域合作体制的研究——以法国为例

区域公共管理理论主要从制度建设出发,强调要确保地区经济合作的顺利进展,除了要采取相应的政策措施外,更需要建立大量的制度安排来约束与引导区域经济合作的良性发展.区域合作协调机制包括政府适度干预的协调机制、区域产业政策的协调机制和区域合作的功能性协调机制等等.     

中美两国经济周期同步性研究

改革开放三十年以来,中芙两国经贸往来日益密切.从两国经济周期的同步程度来看,这三十年中,两国经济周期同步波动主要出现在2000年以后,我国进出口、投资等指标与美国消费之间的高度相关以及美国进出口与我国投资的高度相关是这种同步性得以实现的主要原因之一.中关两国经济周期的同步运动,主要源于美国经济周期对中国经济的影响.