商业银行信用风险评估的生存分析模型及实证研究

企业发生财务危机，不能归还到期贷款是商业银行信贷资产的主要风险来源，商业银行如何构建恰当的信用风险评估模型来预测企业的财务危机，从而避免这类信用风险的出现就显得尤为重要。本文以我国上市公司为研究对象，结合杜邦分析法建立了基于生存分析的信用风险评估模型，模型对于随机选取的预测样本，其提前1年、2年和3年的预测准确率分别达到86％、72％和68％。通过与Ahman模型、Ohlson模型预测结果的比较和鲁棒性检验的结果发现，该模型同时具有可以使用时间序列、无需样本配对、中远期预测能力强和高鲁棒性的特点．这些特点特别对于商业银行中长期信贷风险管理具有较高的应用价值．     

中国商务中心区区位分布研究

明确传统商务中心区与现代商务中心区的内涵,归纳商务中心区发展的三种模式,提出了理想的商务中心区发展模式是市场和政府有限引导共同作用的二元驱动模式。在世界范围内将商务中心区划分为四个等级,建立了建设和发展商务中心区满意度的评价指标体系。选择了26个有代表性的城市作为样本城市,采用聚类分析法,将样本城市划分为四大类别。提出了在中国现阶段商务中心区可能的区位分布是:上海、北京、广州和重庆,而其他城市的商务中心区可以考虑建设成为传统商务中心区。最后,进行了商务中心区合理布局的对策分析。     

The Effects of Attributes on the Repeat Sales Pattern of Residential Property in Hong Kong

There has been copious research work on the development of house price models and the construction of house price indices. However, results in some studies revealed that the accuracy of such indices could be subject to selection bias when using only information from a sample of sold properties to estimate value movements for the entire housing stock. In particular, estimated house price appreciation is usually systematically higher among properties that change hands more frequently. It therefore suggests that the determination of important factors affecting the transaction frequency or intensity of a housing unit should be a more fundamental research question. This paper examines the possible factors that determine the popularity of residential unit by means of a repeated sales pattern. The Poisson regression model and event history analysis techniques are employed to assess the effect of attributes on transaction frequency and intensity. The event history analyses technique can take account of transaction-specific as well as time-dependent covariates, and therefore is recommended for analyzing repeated sales data in a real estate market. All transaction records during the period 1993–2000 from the Land Registry of one of the most popular residential estates in Hong Kong were used to illustrate the method. Unlike a response to favorable transaction price, good quality units do not necessarily inherently display a high transaction frequency. Rather, units of average quality are more likely to be transactionally active.     

WTO financial services commitments: Determinants and impact on financial stability

The paper investigates the factors that have influenced WTO members to take on their chosen level of liberalization commitments in the framework of liberalization of trade in financial services and the impact of such commitments on financial sector stability. The most important factors are economic growth, current account, trends in banking sector development, policy restrictiveness, and peer-group effects. The econometric evidence suggests that more liberal commitments may be associated with greater vulnerability to currency and banking crises—most likely a short-term effect, which should be mitigated with time through increased market efficiency and better resource allocation.     

高层建筑电梯井施工操作平台装置的造价分析

高层建筑电梯井部位施工中操作平台装置的使用,需塔吊等提升机械配合,具有良好的操作性,能明显缩短作业时间,减少电梯井结构施工时脚手架搭设的麻烦。实践证明,该平台装置不仅操作比较便捷,经济效益也十分可观。使用操作平台装置的直接费较钢管脚手架降低率为81.9％,并且随着建筑高度的增加,造价差异趋向扩大。     

A text book treatment of calculating returns on non-traditional portfolios

This paper addresses a gap in traditional portfolio literature by providing techniques for identifying returns on non-traditional portfolios.Futures contracts require daily cash flows over the holding period; these cash flows determine the rate of return. The security deposit represents a tied investment since the funds are not available for other uses and do not earn a risk adjusted return. To initiate a short option or a short stock position also requires a cash outflow. The cash outflow or equity deposit effectively constitutes an investment since the trader postpones consumption in a risky medium that does not guarantee the return of the funds.By identifying the amount of the investment and rates of returns, it is possible to extend normative investment analysis to non-traditional portfolio holdings. This paper introduces four propositions to aid in this process.     

基于因素分析的区域旅游竞争力评价模型研究

竞争力评价是近年学术研究的热点.本文首先回顾了我国区域旅游竞争力评价的相关研究,然后从分析区域旅游竞争力的影响因素入手,构建一个评价区域旅游竞争力的多层次指标体系,并利用因子分析法对指标体系进行定量分析,建立相应的综合评价模型.     

事务所规模与年报会计政策“类准则”披露——基于文本分析的经验证据

通过计算上市公司年报会计政策披露的“类准则”程度,讨论会计师事务所规模是否为影响上市公司会计政策披露行为的重要因素。研究发现：（1）由规模较大的会计师事务所审计的上市公司,年报会计政策披露的“类准则”程度较低,会提供更多公司会计政策的个性化信息。（2）在上市公司风险增强和会计准则重大变化的两大类场景中,事务所规模与年报会计政策披露“类准则”程度之间的关系都得到增强,说明事务所的风险压力和事务所能力是重要的机制路径。（3）由同一事务所审计的上市公司会计政策披露的“类准则”程度更一致,具有同所效应。（4）基于会计师事务所变更的检验发现,若变更后的事务所规模更大,则会计政策披露的“类准则”程度会降低;若变更后的事务所规模更小,则会计政策披露的“类准则”程度会提高。     

中国担保行业的SWOT分析

信用担保机构对缓解中小企业融资难起了积极作用,然而目前中小企业信用担保体系并不健全.文章回顾了中国信用担保机构的建构历程和取得的成就,然后通过SWOT分析法分析了中国担保业优劣势和面临的机遇和挑战,提出了从担保机构、政府、担保协会三方面发展中国担保业的一些建议.     

广州市用水量变化规律分析

结合广州市部分经验调度工况的结果,从宏观角度分析广州市的用水量变化规律及其影响这种变化规律的内在因素和外在因素。分析不同节假日、不同工作时段的用水量变化规律,为优化调度提供参考依据,最终达到节省能源消耗,提高生产效益和经济效益的目的。