加快广西出口信用保险发展的政策建议

本文着眼于金融危机背景下出口信用保险的显著作用,结合广西实际分析广西出口信用保险加快发展的意义,并提出政策建议.     

基于多级模糊综合评判法的个人信用评分模型研究

为加强对个人信用风险的防范、提高信贷审批质量而提出多级模糊综合评判方法,并设计相应的个人信用评分系统模块和信用评分的交互界面应于个人房贷的审批.通过实例演示发现.该方法克服了以往模型中假设条件的限制,在我国目前信用信息数据收集不完整、信息数据质量不高的情况下有着独到的优势.     

商业银行零售资产业务的聚合信用风险模型

在描述商业银行零售资产业务特征的基础上,运用特征函数法对其聚合后的信用风险进行建模分析,结果表明,在违约速率不变和可变的情况下,商业银行聚合信用风险的损失分布都有完整的解析表达式.     

论长沙市大河西先导区信用环境建设

良好的社会信用环境是长沙市大河西先导区投资软环境的重要组成部分和经济健康发展的基本保证。要以政策为导向、以科学发展为抓手、以信用文化培育为目标、以完善功能为基点充分调动各信用主体的积极性和主动性,实现大河西先导区信用环境的局部率先进化。     

我国中小企业信用担保体系的国际借鉴——以日本为例

在当前金融危机的背景下,随着中小企业的大量倒闭,各国深受严重失业所带来的困扰。中国作为一个人口大国,中小企业的发展是事关亿万民众安居乐业、社会稳定的大事,而融资难则是长期以来制约中小企业发展的瓶颈,其根源就在于我国尚缺乏针对中小企业融资的完善的担保体系。日本素有中小企业王国之称,在世界各国中,日本是最早开始建立中小企业信用担保体系的国家,在长期的社会经济发展实践中,探索并建立起较为完善的中小企业信用担保体系。本文在详细分析日本中小企业担保体系的特点和运作方式的基础上,总结并提出可供我国借鉴的方法和经验。     

银行信贷过度集中的理论解释及对策分析

当前我国银行业过度信贷集中问题突出,不仅降低了银行资金的使用效率,加大银行危机发生的概率,而且加剧了我国区域经济发展不平衡;同时在客观上形成了中小企业融资难问题,制约了中小企业的发展,增加了我国宏观经济的不稳定性.本文对银行信贷集中问题进行了理论上的解释,并且提出了建立健全信用担保体系和社会征信体系、鼓励银行进行贷款模式的创新、发展适合中小企业的信贷产品、设立存款保险机构、加强对银行信贷集中的监控和引导的对策.     

Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns

Low credit risk firms realize higher returns than high credit risk firms. This is puzzling because investors seem to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. The credit risk effect manifests itself due to the poor performance of low-rated stocks (which account for 4.2% of total market capitalization) during periods of financial distress. Around rating downgrades, low-rated firms experience considerable negative returns amid strong institutional selling, whereas returns do not differ across credit risk groups in stable or improving credit conditions. The evidence for the credit risk effect points towards mispricing generated by retail investors and sustained by illiquidity and short sell constraints.     

Asset pricing under information with stochastic volatility

Based on a general specification of the asset specific pricing kernel, we develop a pricing model using an information process with stochastic volatility. We derive analytical asset and option pricing formulas. The asset prices in this rational expectations model exhibit crash-like, strong downward movements. The resulting option pricing formula is consistent with the strong negative skewness and high levels of kurtosis observed in empirical studies. Furthermore, we determine credit spreads in a simple structural model.      

Tightening credit standards: the role of accounting quality

Over the latest 20 years, the average credit rating of U.S. corporations has trended down. Blume et al. (1998, Journal of Finance, 53, 1389–1413.) attribute this trend to a tightening of credit standards by agencies. We reexamine the observed decreases in credit ratings in several ways. First, we show that this downward trend does not apply to speculative-grade issuers. Second, our analysis of investment-grade issuers suggests that the apparent tightening of standards can be attributed primarily to changes in accounting quality over time. After incorporating changing accounting quality, we find no evidence that rating agencies have tightened their credit standards.

Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach

This paper links banking with asset prices in a dynamic macroeconomic model, to provide a simple characterization of financial instability. In contrast with historical bank runs, recent banking crises were driven by deteriorating bank assets. Hence, in contrast with bank run models, this paper focuses on the interaction of falling asset prices, bank losses, credit contraction and bankruptcies. This interaction can explain credit crunches, financial instability, and banking crises, either as fundamental or as self-fulfilling outcomes. The model distinguishes between macroeconomic and financial stability. Its simplicity helps understand balance sheet effects and delivers closed-form solutions without resorting to linearization. For instance, the critical threshold beyond which an asset price decline triggers financial instability can be related explicitly to the structural parameters of the economy.