Choice,chance, and inevitability in strategy

We propose a theory to manage the uneasy relation between strategic choice, chance, and determinism (or inevitability). To do so, we locate arguments in intellectual history that have a clear bearing on this relation. We introduce and defend four conjectures that outline the relationship between each of them and their comparative significance. The paper thus aims at achieving three objectives: (a) to articulate a philosophically sustainable theory of strategic choice that corroborates experience (without being induced by it); (b) to synthesize what remains one of the most sustained debates in strategy, namely the nature, role, and relation of choice, chance and determinism; and (c) to contribute to developing a foundation for multilevel research. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多层面的企业社会责任行动实施动因的研究

企业是一个多层面系统，不同的因素会对其行为产生不同的影响，认识这些因素对于理解企业行动原因有一定帮助。基于此，文章从宏观环境、企业组织和管理者三个层面上分析了影响企业社会责任行动的因素。认为在这些影响因素共同作用下，企业开展社会责任行动存在不同的动因，并表现出不同的行动类型，这将有助于更好地理解该行动的实际意义。     

中国A股市场大交易量与收益率关系的研究

利用技术分析制定股票投资策略是投资者主要采用的方法之一,而对交易量与收益率两者之间关系的研究又是技术分析的基础。我们认为,大交易量能更好地预测未来股票的收益。本文通过对中国A股市场代表不同规模股票的指数实证研究发现,不同指数在大交易量形成后的检验期里反应是不同的。代表大盘股的指数存在明显的"大交易量溢价效应";而代表小盘股的指数几乎不存在这种效应。我们还进一步的发现,这种"大交易量溢价效应"只发生在指数上涨了10%-20%的情况下。最后,我们给出了相关的投资策略。     

Veblen’s System of Conspicuous Waste

Abstract:

The touchstone by which Thorstein Veblen evaluated an expenditure was “whether it furthers the life process taken impersonally.” For Veblen, the economic problem involved the problem of social provisioning, the way a community provides for itself. To a large degree, social provisioning has been impeded by the system of conspicuous waste, a “scheme of properties, decencies, and standards of living, the economic motive of which is competitive spending.” The system of conspicuous waste represents a cultural unfolding of conspicuous waste, prompted by the introduction of continuous-mass production in the late nineteenth, early twentieth centuries. Conspicuous waste refers to the allocation of resources, time, and effort that detract from the life process. Veblen rejected the idea that the system of conspicuous waste benefits society. For Veblen, the standard of living refers to that level of consumption at which people are expected to consume. Products that prove serviceable, however, may also serve as symbols of invidiousness. Veblen used the system of conspicuous waste to compare the diverse cultural responses of England and Germany to the same technology in the early twentieth century. The system, however, plays a central role in absorbing increases in output and maintaining profits. Whether it can continue to do so remains questionable.     

基于Granger因果关系检验的居民储蓄影响因素分析

基于协整理论的因果关系研究,是现代计量经济学具有划时代意义的发展。本文通过因果关系来研究我国居民储蓄的影响因素,并对国内生产总值及利率对我国居民储蓄的影响因素进行了实证分析。     

Risk-neutral and actual default probabilities with an endogenous bankruptcy jump-diffusion model

This paper focuses on historical and risk-neutral default probabilities in a structural model, when the firm assets dynamics are modeled by a double exponential jump diffusion process. Relying on the Leland [(1994a) Journal of Finance, 49, 1213–1252; (1994b) Bond prices, yield spreads, and optimal capital structure with default risk. Working paper no. 240, IBER, University of California, Berkeley] or Leland and Toft [(1996) Journal of Finance, 51(3), 987–1019] endogenous structural approaches, as formalized by Hilberink and Rogers [(2002) Finance and Stochastics, 6(2), 237–263], this article gives a coherent construction of historical default probabilities. The risk-neutral world where evolve the firm assets, modeled by a class of geometric Lévy processes, is constructed based on the Esscher measure, yielding useful and new analytical relations between historical and risk-neutral probabilities. We do a complete numerical analysis of the predictions of our framework, and compare these predictions with actual data. In particular, this new framework displays an enhanced predictive power w.r.t. current Gaussian endogenous structural models.      

Accumulation, innovation and catching-up: an extended cumulative growth model

This paper presents an extended model of cumulative growth inwhich the effects of innovation and catching-up are considered.Innovation adds another source of cumulative growth to thatof traditional models and allows a consideration of the importanceof non-price determinants of international competitiveness.Catching-up is the major force leading to convergence in productivityowing to the effect of the diffusion of technology. The modelallows one to analyse whether cumulative forces may lead tostable growth and whether this solution generates convergencein productivity levels. The structural model is tested for aset of OECD countries over the period 1965–94.     

城市化群落驱动经济增长的机制研究——来自长三角16个城市的经验证据

在长三角城市化群落中,城市化率与经济增长之间具有显著的正相关关系,城市群对经济增长也正发挥着越来越重要的新引擎作用,本文的实证结果支持了这一论断。城市化群落驱动经济增长主要是通过两种机制来实现的:一是当要素在区域间能自由流动时,一些优质要素主动向大城市集聚,而普通要素则选择向小城市集中,结果提高了长三角城市群要素积聚的外部经济性,提高了城市群研发创新的效率,促进了经济增长;二是在要素能自由流动时,城市群内政府通过"蒂伯特选择"机制来实现,即政府为了吸引城市群外的企业和产业,加大了固定资产投资中的更新改造的比例,加大了对城市群内基础设施建设投资的比例,降低了企业交通运输成本,强化了需求关联的循环积累效应和投入产出联系,促进了城市群的经济增长。     

基于连通性与敏感性的山岳型景区生态安全格局构建——以山西省云丘山为例

山岳型景区是重要的旅游目的地,景区活动关乎山地系统生态安全。构建山岳型景区生态安全格局是保护生态系统关键物种要素与维护生态系统整体功能的重要手段,也是景区可持续发展的重要保障。本文以山西省云丘山景区为例,选取吕梁山脉代表性珍稀物种褐马鸡（Crossoptilon Mantchuricum）,基于GIS技术提取生态源地,运用最小累积阻力模型（Minimum Cumulative Resistance,MCR）与重力模型提取生态廊道并构建生态网络;综合连通性与敏感性对生态网络进行分析,提出云丘山景区生态安全格局优化建议。结果表明：云丘山景区生态源地总体规模较小,空间分布不均;网络连通性属于中等水平,位于网络核心区的源地间廊道较多,呈网状连接,位于网络边缘区的源地间廊道单一,呈树状连接;根据敏感性评价将景区划分为极度敏感、高度敏感、中度敏感、轻度敏感、不敏感5种类型区,生态网络所处区域整体敏感性程度较低,但仍存在高风险节点;根据生态廊道所处不同敏感性环境提出“降扰性保护”“恢复性保护”“修建性保护”3种廊道构建与优化建议。研究结果将为云丘山景区生态保护工作提供科学依据。