财政分权、地方政府投资与通货膨胀——来自中国转型期的证据

依据当前我国通货膨胀严重和地方投资过热同时并存这一经济现象,建立模型实证研究财政分权体制下地方政府投资对通货膨胀的影响。实证结果显示,地方政府投资是我国通货膨胀形成的一个因素,地方政府投资通过乘数效应拉动社会需求,同时不断增加的投资加强了对土地财政依赖,两者共同作用推动了通货膨胀上升。     

我国通货膨胀与货币供给和经济增长的关系研究

基于协整检验和VAR模型选取1984～2010年的年度数据研究了通货膨胀与货币供给和经济增长之间的关系,研究表明:货币供给和经济增长都会导致通货膨胀,但通货膨胀不会引发货币超发,且一定的通货膨胀对经济增长具有正向刺激作用;货币供应量扩张对通货膨胀有促进作用,但影响程度逐步减弱,经济增长也会促使物价水平的上涨,但影响程度明显小于货币供给水平的影响;经济增长对物价水平的影响小于货币供应量对物价水平的影响,即货币供应量诱发通货膨胀,抑制通货膨胀的最好途径是解决货币供给问题;经济系统中存在"通货膨胀螺旋"效应。     

The Fiscal Deficit, the Inflation and the Debt Crisis：Chen Yun＇s Philosophyon the Financial Policy and its Implications in Modem Times

“坚决不打赤字财政”,是陈云一贯而鲜明的主张,因为在他看来,财政赤字与通货膨胀密不可分。建国初期,我国人民饱受通货膨胀之苦,而“币值下跌、物价上涨的主要原因,是政府的财政赤字庞大”。因此,陈云力主财政安排留有余地,尽量避免出现赤字,尤其忌讳将赤字用于投资。在这一思想的主导下,计划经济时期我国财政预算保持平衡,物价基本稳定。新时期以来,我国经济体制和市场环境发生重大变化,财政赤字渐成常态,相应地物价亦呈不断上涨趋势。尽管近年来连年出现的财政赤字主要依靠发行公共债务来弥补,但这终究不是长久之计,当下的欧债危机警醒了我们,陈云提出的“建设规模的大小必须和国家财力物力相适应”是一条不变的真理。     

货币工资增长、效率空心化与复合型通货膨胀——基于2000-2015年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

本文首次从货币工资增长与"效率空心化"的联合视角来研究中国通货膨胀的形成机理,利用2000-2015年中国30个省市的面板数据,实证分析了劳动生产率不断空心化背景下"工资-效率"增长的结构性缺口在中国复合型通货膨胀中所起的作用和影响效应。研究发现,"工资-效率"增长缺口不仅在微观上使得中国制造成本越来越昂贵,而且在宏观上容易导致物价水平上升的通货膨胀。该缺口在2008-2015年的影响显著强于2000-2007年,对东西部地区的影响显著强于中部地区,表明"工资-效率"增长缺口对通货膨胀的影响既存在明显的时期维度差异,也存在显著的空间地理差异,它与其他影响因素一道成为中国复合型通货膨胀的重要推手。     

Financial development and relationship evolvement among money supply,economic growth and inflation: a comparative study from the U.S. and China

With the rapid development of financial markets, economic financialization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship among money supply, economic growth and inflation. Combined with the horizontal comparison of China, this article concentrates on the financial development and evolution from the period of industrialization to economic financialization in the U.S., systematic and comprehensive analysis is first done on the variation of overall economic operation. Then impulse response function based on VAR model is applied to study the dynamic influence of economic financialization degree on the relationship evolvement. The empirical results show that economic financialization makes good explanation of the deviating phenomenon among money supply, economic growth and inflation, and the interactive relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming closer and closer. Furthermore, compared to the U.S., China still belongs to the process of transforming from the period of industrialization to economic financialization.     

On the persistence of prices in Mexico: a fractional integration approach

A relevant yet often overlooked characteristic of the inflation rate is its mean-reverting property. If a series has this feature, shocks eventually dissipate, whereas if it does not, they have a permanent effect on the series. The usual I(1) versus I(0) dichotomy in time-series econometrics goes only so far towards disentangling this issue. By employing a methodology that estimates the persistence of inflation by allowing (i) fractional integration and (ii) persistence and level shifts in the series, we aim to define whether it is stationary and/or mean reverting and, if so, during which periods. The results of our analysis for the period 1987–2015 are threefold: firstly, inflation in the eighties and nineties should be seen as a highly persistent yet mean-reverting process (not a random walk); secondly, inflation remained mean reverting, though became a short-memory (less persistent) process around the date of the implementation of the inflation-targeting framework of 2001; thirdly, during the later phase, the level of inflation also decreased and is now within the inflation target range set by Banco de México, namely 3 per cent with an interval of ±1 percentage point.     

‘Modern’ Phillips curves and the implications for the statistical process of inflation

‘Modern’ theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated’ process. This article explains this implication and why these ‘modern’ theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation.     

‘Talking down monetary policy’ – a note

There is a recent debate about whether ultra-expansionary monetary policy is no longer effective in stimulating demand, a concern often voiced in the euro area in light of persistently low and even negative inflation. As a response, the European Central Bank (ECB) warns against ‘talking down monetary policy’ (ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio, 2016). This note uses a textbook model of optimal monetary policy to study a situation in which the public misperceives the interest rate elasticity of aggregate demand, which reflects policy effectiveness. We show that as a result of underestimating policy effectiveness demand shocks can no longer be stabilized perfectly, thus resulting in inefficient inflation and output dynamics. In the presence of misperceptions, a negative demand shock leads to a prolonged period of negative inflation rates.     

论以税收指数化矫正个人所得税的认识误区

随着我国社会主义市场经济的建立,我国的经济发展将不可避免地面临通货膨胀和通货紧缩循环交替的周期性波动。通货膨胀对个人所得税在财政收入筹集、资源配置和收入再分配等各方面产生了扭曲性的影响。文章通过对比、分析,阐述了税收指数化的概念、特征和原理,论述了税收指数化策略的合理性和可行性,进而论证了以税收指数化矫正通货膨胀对个人所得税扭曲的认识误区。     

Designing a central bank: Social player,monetary agent,or banking agent?

This paper reviews recent advances on the role of the central bank in the money supply process and its effects on inflation. The literature is presented according to a three-stage process, with the central bank acting first as social player, then as monetary agent, and finally as a combined monetary and banking agent.