论劳动方式变化对可持续发展的影响

在人类长期劳动实践中,直取式、再现式和创造式劳动在为人类生存与发展做出巨大贡献的同时,对人类可持续发展提出了挑战。充分认识不同劳动方式的特征和本质,对于自觉遵守和贯彻可持续科学发展观意义重大。     

实际经济周期理论述评

由于卢卡斯批评的出现,宏观经济学在最近的20年里,又开始重新重视经济周期问题的研究。芬·基德兰德和爱德华·普雷斯科特开辟了这项问题的研究的一条新路,创立了所谓的“实际经济周期理论”。这一理论特别注意对经济微观主体应对经济环境变化的行为的观察。实际经济周期理论强调技术冲击是经济波劝的主要来源。在过去十多年里,实际经济周期理论的概念和方法已开始进入宏观经济学的主流。     

现代国际领域产品生命周期研究——对弗农(Vernon)学说的一种拓展

着眼于时间维度,通过对产品概念的三层内涵和对应的三类国际贸易投资中产品生命周期的初步研究,将弗农学说进一步动态化和系统化。在此基础上讨论了国际贸易与投资发生的时间和从长期来看的发展趋势,提出了描述产品研发、生产、销售通过国际贸易和国际投资在各国间转移的“波浪模型”。使国际领域产品生命周期理论能更好地解释现代国际贸易投资的新现象,也有助于从时间角度在整体上理解和把握国际贸易与投资的大趋势。     

基于K-means与技术生命周期的技术预见方法研究——以水体净化技术为例

预见水体净化技术发展趋势有助于实现“美丽中国”建设目标。已有技术预见方法缺乏定量客观依据,相关评判指标也不够全面。从Innography数据库检索2008-2019年发布的3552个污水处理技术专利,运用多维标度分析和K均值聚类法,基于专利静态指标分析专利技术发展潜力,采用技术生命周期分析法从动态视角判断每类技术的发展前景。研究发现：①污水与污染物双重回收可持续性技术在多个静态评价指标方面均优于其它技术,且处于从引入期到发展期的过渡阶段,具有较大的发展空间;②以去除特定污染物为目标的功能单一技术已被淘汰,市场开始应用污水处理原理不同的多种技术联合处理方式。据此,提出企业应选择污染物回收率高、二次污染物排放少、整体“净效益”为正的污水处理技术,并采取新旧技术联合处理方式降低企业采用新技术的转换成本。     

Determinants of innovation behaviour and investment estimates for west-german manufacturing firms

In this paper, the determinants of innovation behaviour and investment are explored with a large micro-data panel from West-German manufacturing firms. The estimates are discussed within a microeconomic model with monopolistic competition, demand uncertainty and a delayed adjustment of capacities and the production technology. The estimates reveal positive firm-size effects which hint towards scale economies associated with innovations. Market power promotes innovations but not investment, and exporters innovate more but exhibit less investment expenditures. Finally, excess demand promotes innovations. This indicates a complementarity of innovations and investment and hints towards permanent productivity effects of temporary demand shocks.     

产业发展战略的波士顿矩阵导人分析与修正——以深圳为例的实证研究

产业型波士顿矩阵以产业生命周期为理论基础，产业发展梯度及产业发展质量为横纵坐标，融合两维时间概念，划分出四类基本产业类型，吻合产业生命周期的四个阶段。论文构建了产业发展质量和发展梯度的评价指标体系来分析产业发展潜力与发展基础，并结合CARDS模型来分析产业发展战略的选择。最后，以深圳为例来检验产业型波士顿矩阵的实用性和优缺点，并提出它在实际应用中存在的一些缺陷及改进建议。     

Unified GIS database on cycle tourism infrastructure

Bicycles are used in the Czech Republic for commuting to work and for leisure time activities. This is reflected in the cycle trail administrators' offer to make the existing network denser, design new routes, mark their courses and install a complementary cycle infrastructure.     

Hypotheses concerning the development of Polish spas in the years 1949–2006

This research focuses on an analysis of the development of Polish spas and their life cycles. The author discusses hypotheses on the development of Polish spas to contribute to existing knowledge and an evolutionary model of spas. These concepts are based on Butler's model of the tourist area cycle of evolution in order to describe individual stages in the development of the domestic market of spas. The author analyzes the development of Polish spas in the period 1949–2006 by considering the data (statistical and nonstatistical) that relate to health tourism and historical events of this period.     

The need for combining IEA and IE tools: The potential effects of a global ban on PVC on climate change

Over the last decades the concepts of Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) and Industrial Ecology (IE), both claiming to provide analyses and solutions for sustainability issues, have been developed separately as they emerged in response to questions from different policy-fields. In both fields, specific tools are used to support national and international environmental policy. The focus of IEA and IE tools, however, is different. IEA tools focus on one or a limited number of specific environmental issues. They often model the chain environmental processes with high spatial (and temporal) resolution, but have a low resolution for the material structure of the economy and only partly take into account indirect effects that occur via physical and socio-economic linkages. IE tools take into account all environmental issues related to a specific substance or product. They have a high resolution for the material structure of the economy and take into account indirect effects that occur via physical linkages, however, their environmental modelling is very limited. Both IE and IEA tools have proven to be very useful and neither is superior to the other. However, a combination of both can provide additional information that can be used for more effective policy making. We use the case of a hypothetical world-wide ban on PVC to show that a measure that is not directly related to climate change could still have significant climate effects. This indirect effect is a result of the linkages of material flows in society. We show that IEA tools are not well suited to include these types of effects and that IE tools can fill this gap partially. What is really needed is a broader systems perspective that takes into account the full range of possible side-effects of environmental policy measures.     

R&D decision support by parallel assessment of economic, ecological and social impact — Adipic acid from renewable resources versus adipic acid from crude oil

The concept of eco-efficiency has largely been applied along these years. This study proposes the earlier application of this concept, namely the R&D stage of a product. Together with the economic and ecological assessment, the social impacts were analysed in the production of adipic acid from renewable resources. Conventional adipic acid based on crude oil served as a benchmark. The work was carried out within the frame of the EU funded project BIOFOAM. The ecological aspects were addressed in the Life Cycle Perspective by performing a Life Cycle Assessment. The economic impacts were assessed by the application of the Life Cycle Costing under a ‘total production cost’ perspective. In this case, the addressee is interested in several steps of the value chain, but only of the steps that are related to the consortium as a single player in the value chain. The Life Cycle Working Environment method was used to assess the social impacts. Data sources were based on the project consortium, literature and statistics. Despite of the fact that the conventional routes still outperform the new bio-source based adipic acid, the application of this methodology has shown as successful way of identifying problem fields and paving further research.