2008—2009：国际金融危机下的中国经济分析与预测

本文分析了中国改革开放以来的四个经济增长周期,认为2008年在美国次贷危机引起的国际金融危机影响下,中国经济开始进入了第五个周期。文章较为全面地分析了2008年中国经济形势,并对2009年中国经济增长趋势进行了分析和预测。     

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS IN ECONOMICS

Abstract. In recent years there has been great interest in developing nonlinear extensions to the basic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model popularised by Box and Jenkins. Many of these have been in response to observed nonlinear behaviour in scientific areas such as electronic engineering, geology and oceanography and, as a consequence, have found little application in economics. Economic time series have features peculiar to themselves, and thus often require models to be developed in response to their own special nonlinear character. This paper therefore surveys those nonlinear time series models that have been developed in other disciplines and which have found to be useful for analysing economic time series, such as power transformations, fractional integration and deterministic chaos, and those that have been developed directly in response to nonlinear economic behaviour: for example, logistic transformations, asymmetric models, Markov models for business cycles and time deformation models. Also discussed are various tests for the presence of nonlinearity in time series and the evidence concerning the prevalence of such nonlinearity in economic time series is surveyed.     

EQUILIBRIUM BUSINESS CYCLES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

ABSTRACT. This paper surveys equilibrium business cycles (EBC) theory, which has dominated the business cycle literature since the mid 1970s. It focuses primarily on the real business cycle (RBC) literature the origin of which is traced to the monetary equilibrium business cycle (MBC) model developed by Lucas (1975). RBC and MBC models are themselves related to a wider class of linear stochastic business cycle models which, following Frisch (1933), view the cycle as the result of the propagation, by the economic system, of a series of random shocks. The MBC approach highlighted the importance of monetary shocks but its failure to adequately explain observed fluctuations provided the impetus to the development of the RBC approach, which emphasises the importance of real shocks. This paper also appraises the empirical support for the RBC approach and finds it less than compelling. Given the failure of Keynesian, and equilibrium linear stochastic business cycle models to fully explain economic fluctuations, the Frischian approach to business cycle modelling is called into question. Developments to existing models, which may help to clarify our understanding of business cycle behaviour, are discussed with a view to setting out a research agenda for the 1990s and beyond.     

Time-series decomposition using the sinusoidal model

This paper empirically supports the hypothesis that a sinusoidal model can be used successfully to decompose time-series data into its components. Since the length of the seasonal cycle is known, this study documents how one makes use of this known length to infer characteristics of the more general non-seasonal cycle. By examining the ratios of the lengths of the longer to the shorter sine waves in the resulting fit of a sinusoidal model, one is able to determine which sine waves are estimating the same cycle and what the average length of that cycle is. A non-linear trend is estimated by adding a sine wave to the linear trend.     

宏观经济波动的实体性成因——真实经济周期(RBC)理论评析

真实经济周期理论属于西方经济学中的经济自由流派。它突破了货币周期理论,把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源;认为经济波动不是对长期经济增长趋势的偏离,否定把宏观经济分为长期和短期的观点;坚持货币中性主张;反对政府的干预政策。它以正统的微观经济理论来说明宏观经济波动,改变了人们对经济周期性波动原因的理解,超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学,是20世纪80年代以来自由主义经济学的重大发展。     

Marketing orientation and activities in the arts-marketing context: Introducing a Visual Artists’ Marketing Trajectory model

Abstract

Answering the call by Fillis, this paper aims to build an ‘arts-marketing orientation’ model by exploring the parallel relationship that exists between the Product Life Cycle (PLC) and the notion of the ‘career trajectory’ (as it applies to visual artists). In so doing, this paper provides a finer-grained understanding of the marketing orientation and activities of visual artists as they progress through their career. Qualitative analysis of the data (and the subsequent development of the Visual Artists’ Marketing Trajectory model) suggests that the marketing orientation and activities undertaken by visual artists deviates significantly from the assumptions underpinning traditional marketing theory. Unlike customer orientation (central to traditional marketing theories), this research suggests that in the arts-marketing context, the marketing orientation and activities of visual artists change according to the career trajectory stage in question.     

宏观审慎视角下的系统性金融风险研究

全球金融危机使监管者认识到仅靠微观审慎监管无法保证金融系统的稳定,必须加强逆周期的宏观审慎监管。本文首先回顾了对系统性金融风险、宏观审慎监管等重要概念的认识和发展;其次比较了美国、欧盟的逆周期宏观审慎政策框架;再次对我国的信贷投放、资本监管和贷款损失拨备的顺周期性进行了实证检验;最后,本文对我国的逆周期宏观审慎监管提出了相关建议。     

基于RFID技术的高校固定资产全生命周期管理系统研究

通过对高校现行固定资产管理中存在的问题进行分析,作者引入资产全生命周期管理理念,利用RFID技术,建立网络数据库技术条件下的固定资产管理系统,以解决固定资产管理中存在的问题。     

金融周期对房地产价格的影响——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用2004-2016年的季度数据构建金融周期综合指数,用以描述金融市场景气程度;使用SV-TVP-VAR模型,围绕金融周期对我国房地产价格的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,金融周期对房地产价格的影响具有明显的时变性特征:2008年以前金融市场繁荣对房价有稳定推升作用,2008年后该影响持续弱化;与之类似,实体经济对房价的影响同样自2008年起逐渐减小。这意味着,在经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整的过程中,我国房地产价格对经济金融冲击的敏感度已经大幅下降,金融扩张可能难以再通过房地产市场有效带动实体经济的繁荣,相反,其反而可能导致银行贷款不良率的攀升,在金融系统内积累系统性风险。我国针对房地产的宏观调控政策不仅对控制贷款不良率的提高体现出积极作用,而且自2008年国际金融危机以来,产出及房价的随机波动率均呈显著下降趋势,风险得到有效控制。未来应更加重视房地产市场调控在宏观审慎政策框架中的重要地位,遏制房地产金融化泡沫化势头,防范房地产市场引发金融危机。