A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.     

Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL

This study investigates escalation effects in the Australian Football League (AFL). We use a sample of players selected in the AFL player draft (National Draft) between 1986 and 2002, and test for escalation effects by examining whether a player's draft order affects his subsequent utilisation by the club to which he was drafted. Utilisation is represented with measures of games played and tenure. Limited evidence of an escalation effect is found. Any relation between a player's draft order and his games played and tenure at the club to which he was drafted is concentrated in the early years of his career, and this apparent relation can be explained by the information about a player's ability that is contained in the player's draft order and by incentives for clubs to provide greater playing experience to higher ability players. Escalation effects in the AFL competition are therefore much weaker than have been found in studies of the US National Basketball Association (NBA). It is suggested that differences in the structure of the competitions may explain why the escalation effect in the AFL would be weaker than in the NBA.     

Fiscal deficits and current account deficits

Recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50% of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75% for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100% for a small open economy.     

Principal components estimation and identification of static factors

It is known that the principal component estimates of the factors and the loadings are rotations of the underlying latent factors and loadings. We study conditions under which the latent factors can be estimated asymptotically without rotation. We derive the limiting distributions for the estimated factors and factor loadings when N$N$ and T$T$ are large and make precise how identification of the factors affects inference based on factor augmented regressions. We also consider factor models with additive individual and time effects. The asymptotic analysis can be modified to analyze identification schemes not considered in this analysis.     

Liberty and the Post‐utilitarian Society

Utilitarian foundations for limited government are shaky insofar as they assume rational and consistent individuals. Recently economists’ assumption of rational actors has come under sustained attack. Behavioural economics has suggested that people are plagued by irrational biases and inconsistencies. These developments have led to a post‐utilitarianism which is held to justify paternalistic interventions by the state via ‘sin taxes’, direct bans or new obligations. Individual responsibility is seriously undermined, as is faith in markets. Supporters of individual freedom need to move away from utilitarian reasoning, reassert core values of autonomy and responsibility, and define strict limits on the scope of government intervention.     

AutoCAD在架空线路施工计算中的应用

在架空线路施工过程中,我们通常对各种受力和长度采用计算公式法进行计算,或采用手工作图法绘图测量。但是传统计算方法计算公式冗长繁杂不够直观简便,甚至难以完成某些复杂特殊施工环境下的计算,而计算机CAD作图法却很简便、直观,且计算精度完全满足要求,从根本上解决了困扰架空线路施工技术人员多年的施工难题。本文就架空线路施工中某些常用及复杂特殊施工环境下的各种受力和线长如何采用CAD作图法进行计算作具体说明应用。     

基于WT588D语音提示系统设计

文事设计了基于WT588D语音芯片的语音提示系统,分析、设计了系统的软硬件,介绍了语音单片机WT588D的结构、功能以及工作模式,通过AT89S51单片机控制,实现语音播报。     

Core equivalence and welfare properties without divisible goods

We study an economy where all goods entering preferences or production processes are indivisible. Fiat money not entering consumers’ preferences is an additional perfectly divisible parameter. We establish a First and Second Welfare Theorem and a core equivalence result for the rationing equilibrium concept introduced in Florig and Rivera (2005a). The rationing equilibrium can be considered as a natural extension of the Walrasian notion when all goods are indivisible at the individual level but perfectly divisible at the level of the entire economy.     

Econometric modeling of technical change

The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to econometric modeling of substitution and technical change. Substitution is determined by observable variables, such as prices of output and inputs and shares of inputs in the value of output. Our principal innovation is to represent the rate and biases of technical change by unobservable or latent variables. This representation is considerably more flexible than the constant time trends employed in the previous literature. An added advantage of the new representation is that the latent variables can be projected into the future, so that the rate and bias of technical change can be incorporated into econometric projections.     

基于VR法的土体大孔隙三维可视化

本文利用Volview3.4软件并依据VR法对CT扫描土样进行三维重构,并实现了土体大孔隙的三维可视化。结果表明:运用三维可视化软件Volview3.4对二维CT序列图像进行三维重构,其效果较理想;从图像显示方面来看,CT扫描的层间距对三维重构后的图像的质量有很大的影响,理论上扫描层间距越小其三维重建后显示的效果越好。