COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.     

How Inequality Affects Trust in Institutions: Evidence from Indonesia

Trust is an important ingredient to improve economic performance and people's welfare by alleviating market failures caused by imperfect information, costly enforcement, or coordination failures. Using the World Values Survey 2018, we estimate the impact of village and district levels inequality on trust in institutions in Indonesia. We find that higher village level inequality has a negative effect only on trust in strangers, while higher district level inequality reduces trust in television, the press, the central government, the courts, and the police. The implication points to the importance of keeping inequality at the aggregate level in check to maintain people's trust in social, political and state institutions.     

Spatial dimensions of precision agriculture: a spatial econometric analysis of millet yield on Sahelian coversands

The identification of local soil variability caused by within‐field differences of macronutrients and ecological features is of paramount importance for the effectiveness of precision agriculture. We present several spatial statistical and econometric techniques to capture local differences in soil variation, ecological characteristics, and yield more effectively than the analytical techniques traditionally used in agronomy. The application of these techniques is illustrated in a case study dealing with precision agriculture in the West African Sahel. The production of millet on acid sandy soils constitutes a typical example of low soil fertility areas exhibiting small absolute but large relative differences in crop production conditions over short distances.     

Ranking efficiency units in DEA using bootstrapping an applied analysis for Slovenian farm data

This article explores how data envelopment analysis (DEA), along with a smoothed bootstrap method, can be used in applied analysis to obtain more reliable efficiency rankings for farms. The main focus is the smoothed homogeneous bootstrap procedure introduced by Simar and Wilson (1998) to implement statistical inference for the original efficiency point estimates. Two main model specifications, constant and variable returns to scale, are investigated along with various choices regarding data aggregation. The coefficient of separation (CoS), a statistic that indicates the degree of statistical differentiation within the sample, is used to demonstrate the findings. The CoS suggests a substantive dependency of the results on the methodology and assumptions employed. Accordingly, some observations are made on how to conduct DEA in order to get more reliable efficiency rankings, depending on the purpose for which they are to be used. In addition, attention is drawn to the ability of the SLICE MODEL, implemented in GAMS, to enable researchers to overcome the computational burdens of conducting DEA (with bootstrapping).     

Risk, uncertainty, and learning in adoption of a crop innovation

Risk and uncertainty have often been suggested as causes of poor adoption of rural innovations, but empirical evidence has been scarce. This study focuses on a new crop‐type, chickpeas, in Western Australia to gather such evidence. The empirical models developed are based on a theoretical framework that conceptualizes adoption as a dynamic decision process involving information acquisition and learning‐by‐doing by growers who vary in their managerial abilities, risk preferences, and their perceptions of the profitability and riskiness of the innovation. Learning encompasses improvements in skill as well as reductions in uncertainty. An annual face‐to‐face survey of over 100 farmers was conducted over 3 years, eliciting the farmers' risk attitudes and their subjective distributions of yields and prices. Two limited dependent variable models, Tobit and Probit, are used to estimate the empirical model. There is a high degree of goodness‐of‐fit for both models. The study provides strong empirical support for the primarily economic character of the adoption decision, and highlight the importance of economic risk in the process. The two risk‐related factors with greatest impact on the adoption decision were risk aversion and relative riskiness of the innovation. Risk aversion tended to reduce adoption, and to do so to a greater extent as relative riskiness and scale increased. Results also reveal the key role that trialing of the innovation plays in adoption.     

Estimation of time-varying price elasticity in 1970–1997 Japanese raw milk supply by structural time-series model

The price elasticity of raw milk supply in Japan is estimated over time by a structural time-series model in state space form, and the changes in elasticity are tested by the diagnosing test of de John and Penzer in 1998. The supply function is modeled with a local linear trend and a strictly exogenous autoregressive distributed lag price. The seasonality in the data is adjusted by a structural time-series model. In the 1970–1997 period, there were major dairy policy changes in Japan: a production adjustment, related penalties, and two-tier pricing. Hokkaido is the region that mainly provides the supply of raw milk for milk products, while Tofuken is the region that mainly produces drinking milk. The estimated price elasticity in Hokkaido became stable after imposition of the production adjustment. On the other hand, price elasticity in Tofuken became stable after the inflation of the mid-1970s. Price elasticity is estimated to be more inelastic as well as more likely to converge in inelasticity in Hokkaido than in Tofuken. We discuss the relationship between changes in dairy policy and changes in price elasticity.     

Toward understanding household preference for consumption characteristics of millet varieties: a case study from western Niger

In this study, we evaluate the preference of consumers in Niger for different tuwo or couscous characteristics using a random utility‐based choice experiment, ordered probit analysis, and tree‐based partitioning. Data were collected through a structured survey administered at four sites. Preferences are estimated for three products (couscous, fermented tuwo, and nonfermented tuwo) made from five pearl millet cutivars. We provide relative valuation for different traits by type of product. Results show that product taste, color, and textural attributes are important, especially for tuwo and couscous. Probit and partitioning results show that taste and color are the first attributes that consumers use to distinguish more preferred millet food products from less preferred millet food products. This should provide some direction for millet breeding programs and food processing of millet.     

Testing for the Presence of Financial Constraints in US Agricultural Cooperatives: An Investment Behaviour Approach

This study examines the presence of financial constraints in US agricultural cooperatives. We test the cooperative capital constraint hypothesis with a panel data econometric analysis of agricultural cooperatives’ investment behaviour. Regression results suggest that agricultural cooperatives’ capital expenditures are significantly affected by the availability of internal funds. Results also indicate that the sensitivity of investment to cash flow is correlated with cooperative structural characteristics.     

银行间债券市场7天回购利率影响因素的实证分析

我国银行间债券市场7天回购交易品种成交量大、交易活跃、参与机构多，其回购利率R07D也成为货币市场短期利率的重要基准。本文从资金面和政策面两个角度出发选取了若干R07D利率的影响因素，对从2001年1月至2006年6月的数据，运用协整、格兰杰因果检验、回归等计量方法进行实证分析，结果显示：央行票据发行利率、超额准备金利率、M2同比增长率、商业银行存贷比与R07D利率存在着长期的协整关系，是R07D利率变动的原因。