Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis

The impact of U.S. bank loan announcements on the stock prices of the corporate borrowers has been decreasing during the two last decades with estimated two-day cumulative abnormal returns slipping from almost 200 basis points in the beginning of the 1980s to close to zero by the turn of the Century. We estimate excess returns before and after the onset of the most recent financial crisis. We find that while prior to August 2007 returns were indeed close to zero, afterwards returns jump back up to around 200 basis points. We surmise that in a booming credit market the certification of corporate borrowers by banks started to play a lesser role, while during the crisis the banks’ role was revitalized. Consistent with this interpretation we find that after August 2007 excess returns increase especially for loans with a longer maturity, and for smaller, levered, less profitable or lowly rated firms.     

Bankruptcy and firm finance

This paper analyzes how an enforcement mechanism that resembles a court affects firm finance. The court is described by two parameters that correspond to enforcement costs and the amount of creditor/debtor protection. We provide a theoretical and quantitative characterization of the effect of these enforcement parameters on the contract loan rate, the default probability and welfare. We analyze agents’ incentive to default and pursue bankruptcy and show that when the constraints that govern these decisions bind, the enforcement parameters can have a sharply non-linear effect on finance. We also compute the welfare losses of “poor institutions” and show that they are non-trivial. The results provide guidance on when models which abstract from enforcement provide good approximations and when they do not.      

当前世界经济面临的风险及其影响

2008年全球经济面临的风险是亚洲金融危机以来最严重的一次。全球经济减速，次贷危机继续恶化，油价上涨，美元贬值压力加大，通货膨胀死灰复燃。他们相互交织在一起对各国经济决策构成了极大的挑战。本文对其未来的发展趋势及其对中国经济的影响做出了一种分析。     

浅析国际金融危机下中日经贸合作新契机

本文将就金融危机爆发前后中日在贸易额、依存关系及跨国投资方向三方面的变化,分析其产生的经济原因,即合作对等性加强及贸易保护主义抬头,并利用贸易结合度指数论证在新经济形势下中日双边贸易合作的新契机,并对于中日贸易合作前景提出展望。     

基于Hill估计的VaR计算——以次贷危机为例

对极值分布的尾部形式、Hill估计量、风险价值分析等进行了理论分析,应用极值理论中的Hill估计对2002-01-04至2008-09-18期间的上证综指、道琼斯指数、恒生指数等做了风险价值的计算,比较和分析各国面临的市场风险的大小：认为美国次贷危机的爆发给全球金融市场带来了巨大风险,对中国的影响尤为巨大。     

The impact of the current economic crisis on the geography of air traffic volumes: an empirical analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of air services dynamics during the recent economic crisis. Through a regression analysis, we show that at the country scale, the change in the supply of seats is highly dependent on economic growth, confirming the cyclical nature of the air sector. Hence the crisis of air services has much more affected the USA, Europe and Japan than the rest of the world. However, many countries deviate from this general trend. In a second step, using the existing literature, we explain some of these deviating figures. National specificities and airline strategies seem to influence the intensity of the crisis. We argue that the intensity of the crisis in the US is due to the structural oversupply of the air sector. Through other cases, especially the Middle East, we show that hubbing strategies might reduce the impact of the crisis, or at least make it less dependent upon local economic dynamics. In contrast with other authors, we found no positive impact of the share of low-cost carriers on the supply during the crisis, despite their success in some specific contexts like between Europe and Morocco.     

Research on China＇s Direct Investment to EU Under the Background of European Debt Crisis

近年来，中国对欧盟的直接投资出现了爆发式增长。欧洲主权债务危机的爆发及持续蔓延，引发了对全球经济“二次探底”的担忧，也给中国对欧盟直接投资带来了新的问题。本文在实证分析的基础上，认为中国对欧投资的超常增长并不是金融危机以来才发生的；欧债危机虽给中国企业对欧投资提供了机遇，但也带来了更多的障碍和风险。因此，要继续扩大对欧直接投资，就必须正确认识中国对欧盟直接投资的战略意义，厘清存在的障碍和风险，从而有针对性地对欧盟内部不同的区域市场和行业进行直接投资。     

Role-Playing a Public Relations Crisis

Abstract

Crisis management affects all institutions. Organizations now operate in a media-saturated world where individuals can disseminate information instantaneously across the globe via the internet. As a result, ensuring future business leaders have an understanding of how crises develop and what alternatives exist is a valuable educational outcome. Through a role-playing exercise, students undertake crisis management for a fictitious organization. The exercise, according to participants, provides a realistic environment where higher level learning (as compared w th merely listening to lectures) resulted. Role-playing also improved student awareness of the components of good crisis management and prepared them to handle a crisis.     

Catalytic defiance as a crisis communication strategy: The risk of pursuing long-term objectives

In 2014, Dairy Khoury, a medium-sized family dairy located in Lebanon, was accused of using a health-threatening carcinogenic substance as a preservative in its products. The news created an immediate food safety concern and a product harm crisis, resulting in dramatic reputation loss and operational risks to Dairy Khoury. In this article, we analyze Dairy Khoury’s response to the product harm crisis through an examination of the communication strategies used to address internal and external stakeholders. We then introduce traditional corrective action response strategies from the crisis communication literature. In the Dairy Khoury case study, the company opted to defend its reputation and clarify the misunderstanding using catalytic defiance, a long-term crisis response strategy. Our analysis provides insight regarding the risks and benefits of pursuing long-term versus short-term strategies during crisis recovery. This article contributes to crisis communication theory and practice and sheds light on the dynamics of crisis management in family businesses.     

Macrodynamics of debt regimes, financial instability and growth

This paper develops a post-Keynesian dynamic model of capacityutilisation and growth, in which the supply of credit-moneyis endogenous and firms' debt position—and thus the financialfragility of the economy à la Hyman Minsky—is explicitlymodelled. The interest rate is set by banks as a markup overa base rate exogenously determined by the monetary authority.The banking markup varies with changes in capacity utilisation,while the debt ratio varies with changes in the rates of interest,capital accumulation and growth. Regarding dynamics, it is shownthe possibility of relating the stability properties of a systemwith the interest rate and the debt ratio as state variablesto the prevailing Minskyan regime—hedge, speculative orPonzi.