Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

产权管制放松博弈与中国农业生产危机——基于结构突变面板数据模型的实证分析

基于产权管制放松的分析视角，本文构建一个政治风险下农民和国家的动态博弈模型来解释中国两次农业生产危机。此外，本文利用1959—1961年与1970—1977年两次中国农业生产危机的省级面板数据对理论模型进行了实证检验。结构突变面板计量结果表明，国家不会主动削弱自己的谈判能力，除非政策失误或外部竞争压力造成的冲击才可能迫使它在产权管制放松的博弈谈判中让步。     

Debt,seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries

The endogenous growth literature established the existence of an inverted-U curve between taxes and economic growth, namely a Growth Laffer Curve, but empirical evidence on this relationship in developing countries is rather limited. Given that seigniorage and public debt are also important means of financing public spending in these countries, we take into account in this paper their respective impacts on growth, as they might deform the existing relationship between taxes and growth. To this end, we develop a growth model with public investment as the engine of perpetual growth, and look for the effect of debt, tax and money financing on economic growth. We study in particular the way fiscal and monetary policies deform the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries. An empirical section based on a panel of 100 developing countries over the period 1980–2010 provides both OLS-Fixed Effects and GMM-system estimations that support our theoretical conclusions, namely the existence of Growth Laffer Curves indexed by the levels of debt and of seigniorage.     

The Political Economy of Argentina's Debacle

In this paper I argue that political economy considerations and, in particular, the identity of the reformers, are central to understanding the Argentine crisis that culminated in sovereign default in January 2002. During the 1990s, the main political parties remained attached to populism, and no strong party emerged at the center of the political spectrum. This had two effects in the reform process. First, it severely deteriorated it (efficiency, corruption), reducing the support of the population. Second, when a series of shocks hit the economy the anti‐reform camp tried to undo most reforms, and thus convey a message to the population about the “right” model of the world.     

Infrastructure,returns to scale and sovereign debt

This paper explores the nexus between the issue of sovereign debt and investment in infrastructure, emphasizing the case of economies of scale. The focus is on debt contracts that are incentive compatible. It is shown that public and private financial institutions may need to lend amounts above some threshold to force the borrowing sovereign to take full advantage of any economies of scale that may be present. Low levels of lending may or may not result in default. Sufficiently high amounts of lending may be needed to ensure repayment and may prove to be mutually beneficial.     

后危机时代我国政府治理模式的转型与定位——以政府与市场关系为观察视角

政府与市场之间的关系是国家治理所必须思考的首要问题,是治理模式选择的重要依据。政府和市场之间的权力边界的确定是双方力量均衡的结果,每一次市场的经济波动总会为二者关系的定位提出新的思考。2008年经济危机过程中,主张政府干预的凯恩斯主义登场并取得了一定成效。在后危机时代,面对低碳经济的发展要求,中国市场呈现出消费需求不足、城市化潜力释放缓慢、投资结构不合理等问题。所以面对各类市场需求,在后危机时代,政府应转变治理方式,权力触角逐渐淡出经济领域,让市场实现自我完善的同时进一步推进社会治理。     

福利危机与改革路径——20世纪90年代以来的香港社会救助

作为全球最活跃的经济体之一,香港一直坚持低税制、低福利、高发展的路线,并根据自身情况建立了一套具有香港特色的社会救助制度。但是,20世纪90年代后,经济、社会等领域发生的重大变化导致这一制度面临诸多问题。为此,香港政府进行了一系列改革,改革汲取了当代全球先进福利理念及经验,在许多方面突破了单纯强调收入援助的传统救助模式,而转向一种新的具有社会投资倾向的积极救助模式。     

基于生命周期理论对食品安全危机下的企业危机管理研究——以三聚氰胺为例

近年来，一系列食品安全事件频发，给企业的危机管理带来了极大的挑战。以往的企业危机管理中多针对危机影响的不同程度通过良好的声誉，及时回应和一定的社会责任处理危机，使损失降到最低。本文以三聚氰胺事件为倒，利用生命周期理论，将危机发展分成危机酝酿期，危机爆发期，危机扩散期，危机处理期，处理结果与后遣症期，通过三家主要企业对不同生命周期的危机发展的应对方式进行研究，进而提出危机管理的相关建议。     

New development: The crisis and European local government reforms

This article highlights the main reform trajectories put in place in French, Italian, German and Portuguese local governments during the recent crisis and identifies a number of important trends: for example increasing centralization of decision-making powers away from local governments. The authors explain why local governments have an opportunity to use reforms during the crisis to strategically reposition their value proposition.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.