Macrodynamics of debt regimes, financial instability and growth

This paper develops a post-Keynesian dynamic model of capacityutilisation and growth, in which the supply of credit-moneyis endogenous and firms' debt position—and thus the financialfragility of the economy à la Hyman Minsky—is explicitlymodelled. The interest rate is set by banks as a markup overa base rate exogenously determined by the monetary authority.The banking markup varies with changes in capacity utilisation,while the debt ratio varies with changes in the rates of interest,capital accumulation and growth. Regarding dynamics, it is shownthe possibility of relating the stability properties of a systemwith the interest rate and the debt ratio as state variablesto the prevailing Minskyan regime—hedge, speculative orPonzi.     

On the Coexistence of Banks and Markets*

We examine the coexistence of banks and financial markets by studying a credit market where the qualities of investment projects are not observable and the investment decisions of entrepreneurs are not contractible. Standard banks can alleviate moral‐hazard problems, while financial markets operated by investment banks can alleviate adverse‐selection problems. In competition, standard banks are forced to increase repayments, since financial markets can attract the highest‐quality borrowers. This, in turn, increases the share of shirkers and may make lending unprofitable for standard banks. The coexistence of financial markets and standard banks is socially inefficient. The same inefficiency may occur with the entrance of sophisticated banks, operating with a combination of rating and ongoing monitoring technologies.     

Debt and corporate governance in emerging economiesEvidence from India1

We analyze the role of debt in corporate governance with respect to a large emerging economy, India, where debt has been an important source of external finance. Using cross‐sectional data on listed manufacturing firms we estimate, simultaneously, the relation between Tobin's Q and leverage for three years, 1996, 2000 and 2003. Our analysis indicates that while in the early years of institutional change, debt did not have any disciplinary effect on either standalone or group affiliated firms, the disciplinary effect appeared in the later years as institutions became more market oriented. We also find limited evidence of debt being used as an expropriation mechanism in group firms that are more vulnerable to such expropriation. In general, our results highlight the role of ownership structures and institutions in debt governance.     

Firm Shutdown During the Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crises: Empirical Evidence from Portugal

This paper examines Portuguese firms’ survival over the business cycle and investigates whether the effect of firm size varies across the phases of the cycle and with the type of shock associated with periods of economic contraction. Our results show that smaller firms are more likely to shut down than larger firms. Within each size band, however, we found that during the two crises examined, micro firms experienced hazards of closing (relative to large firms) at least similar to those observed in the pre-crisis period, while medium-sized firms were found to have been more vulnerable during the financial crisis period but showed more resilience during the sovereign debt crisis. The results suggest that during the sovereign debt crisis, firms faced a higher probability of closing than they did during the financial crisis.     

Infrastructure,returns to scale and sovereign debt

This paper explores the nexus between the issue of sovereign debt and investment in infrastructure, emphasizing the case of economies of scale. The focus is on debt contracts that are incentive compatible. It is shown that public and private financial institutions may need to lend amounts above some threshold to force the borrowing sovereign to take full advantage of any economies of scale that may be present. Low levels of lending may or may not result in default. Sufficiently high amounts of lending may be needed to ensure repayment and may prove to be mutually beneficial.     

企业集团的债务融资管理方式选择--以比亚迪集团和茅台集团为例

中国改革开放后,社会主义经济,得到了迅猛发展,许多产业的领军人物选择在大环境中进行融资,以扩大其规模。但从整体而言,选择如何融资,如何管理融资,才能获得更大的经济利益,从而使企业价值最大化,仍是各企业值得深思的问题。本研究以新能源行业和酒业这两大不同产业的代表公司为例,对比亚迪集团和茅台集团进行分析,对其债务融资管理的方式如何选择,从而影响企业发展。     

Research on China＇s Direct Investment to EU Under the Background of European Debt Crisis

近年来,中国对欧盟的直接投资出现了爆发式增长。欧洲主权债务危机的爆发及持续蔓延,引发了对全球经济“二次探底”的担忧,也给中国对欧盟直接投资带来了新的问题。本文在实证分析的基础上,认为中国对欧投资的超常增长并不是金融危机以来才发生的;欧债危机虽给中国企业对欧投资提供了机遇,但也带来了更多的障碍和风险。因此,要继续扩大对欧直接投资,就必须正确认识中国对欧盟直接投资的战略意义,厘清存在的障碍和风险,从而有针对性地对欧盟内部不同的区域市场和行业进行直接投资。     

Is Chinas Fiscal policy Sustainable： An Empirical Research

本文简要回顾了财政可持续性（Fiscal Sustainability）相关研究文献,选择国际标准的计量经济学分析工具,选取适当模型对中国财政可持续性进行检验,并就不同情形下的财政可持续性所对应的赤字率进行模拟分析,具体分析了不同情境下通胀、经济增长、利息支付、铸币税等因素对可持续性财政赤字率的影响。综合分析后可以判断中国目前的财政状况基本属于可持续性状态,中国财政整体上仍处于健康状态,积极财政政策仍有作为的空间,但是对于地方政府债务等需要引起高度重视。最后,本文就财政政策调整提出合理的建议。     

The public bond offering of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.

In April 2007, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) issued debt for USD 7.5 billion, the largest debt offering to date by a Latin American company. The conditions surrounding this issue, which was denominated and tradable in dollars, but payable in bolivars, were quite special, particularly when considering the strict foreign exchange control system put into place by the Venezuelan government in 2003. The fact that the bond issue attempted to fulfill the dual purpose of offering dollars to local companies and investors in the midst of prevailing exchange rate controls, while helping to finance PDVSA as a company, creates a unique dilemma that is ideal for class discussion. This teaching case provides the information necessary for estimating and proposing a price for PDVSA's bond offer.     

山西煤炭行业财务状况分析——以大同煤业股份有限公司为例

煤炭行业作为重要的能源资源受世界经济和国家政策的影响密切。山西作为全国重要的能源基地,其煤炭企业的财务状况对相关利益主体影响至关重要。企业应响应政府政策,推动产业融合,转变发展方式,加强煤的销售力度。