我国企业财务决策分析框架的构建

本文提出建立适应我国资本市场化条件下的企业财务决策分析框架问题,主要包括价值极大化目标问题、无风险利率的形成机制及测算、市场风险的定价、权益资本风险溢价、试算财务报表的编制、自由现金流量测算以及股权资本价值测算等.     

项目投资决策中折现率的选择

项目投资是否可行需要根据决策评价指标来判断,而评价指标的计算离不开折现率,其高低对决策结果起着关键性作用.所以,要正确选择折现率,提高决策质量.     

Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Following a brief review of the main experimental work into the economics of risk and uncertainty, both static and dynamic, this paper reports the results of an experiment testing one of the key assumptions of the theory of dynamic economic behaviour—that people have a plan and implement it. Using a unique design which enables the plan (if one exists) to be revealed by the first move, the experiment was implemented via the Internet on a subset of the University of Tilburg's ongoing family expenditure survey panel. The advantages of using such a set of subjects for the experiment are twofold: the demographic characteristics of the set are known and therefore demographic inferences can be made; the representativeness of the set is known and therefore inferences about populations can be made. The results suggest that at least 36% of the subjects had behaviour inconsistent with the hypothesis under test: that people formulate plans and then implement them. Interestingly demographic variables are unable to explain the consistency or inconsistency of individuals. One conclusion is that subjects simply make errors. An alternative conclusion, consistent with previous experimental research, is that people are unable to predict their own future decisions. The implications for dynamic theory (particularly relating to savings and pensions decisions) are important.     

影响投标决策的典型因素

基于美国斯坦福大学Boyd C．Paulson．Jr．教授所准备的材料，本介绍了影响招标决策的典型因素，包括：企业的目标和现有能力，工程项目位置，投标时间和地点，如何获得设计图和规范，法定的和其他官方要求，工程特定范围，资源比较的决策。     

浅谈工程项目投资的全过程控制

章简述了工程项目投资全过程控制的原理，以及各阶段对工程项目投资控制所起的作用和控制的方法。在工程建设中投资控制应注意抓住投资决策控制和设计控制，它们是工程项目投资的全过程控制的关键性环节。     

白色酿酒葡萄品种制汁适性及稳定性研究

由于加工葡萄汁的品种要求出汁率高,风味独特,糖、酸、香味和涩味成分平衡,故品种选择对制汁质量十分重要。本实验根据不同白色酿酒品种的葡萄汁,分析其主要成分及特征指标,来评定该品种是否适合制汁以及其制成汁的稳定性。     

Improving an outpatient clinic utilization using decision analysis-based patient scheduling

This study presents a predictive model to be used in scheduling patients in an urban outpatient clinic. The model is based upon actual patient characteristics from a physical therapy clinic within an urban health and wellness center situated in a public university. A number of reported patients' characteristics such as age, education level, distance from the clinic, historical attendance records, etc. were examined to determine if they significantly impacted the patients' missing scheduled appointments (no-shows.) Decision tree analysis was used to develop a model that assessed the likelihood of a patient's no-show, using key patient characteristics and attendance records. Such a model can be used to assist with scheduling patients in an outpatient clinic, while attempting to increase the clinic's overall utilization. Four tree growing criteria were examined to develop the model with the strongest predictive power. Predictive power of each method was assessed by using the entire dataset as well as using split sampling. The results were then compared with those of a Bayesian networks model and a neural networks model. In addition, the trade-off between the selected decision tree model's predictive power versus simplicity of the associated classification rules was examined. We also assessed the impact of various levels of overbooking on the clinic's utilization when using patients' schedules based on the predictive model.     

A weighted max-min model for fuzzy multi-objective supplier selection in a supply chain

Supplier selection is one of the most important activities of purchasing departments. This importance is increased even more by new strategies in a supply chain. Supplier selection is a multi-criteria decision making problem in which criteria have different relative importance. In practice, for supplier selection problems, many input information are not known precisely. The fuzzy set theories can be employed due to the presence of vagueness and imprecision of information. A weighted max-min fuzzy model is developed to handle effectively the vagueness of input data and different weights of criteria in this problem. Due to this model, the achievement level of objective functions matches the relative importance of the objective functions. In this paper, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weights of criteria. The proposed model can help the decision maker (DM) to find out the appropriate order to each supplier, and allows the purchasing manager(s) to manage supply chain performance on cost, quality and service. The model is explained by an illustrative example.     

PRICE SETTING OF MARKET MAKERS: A FILTERING PROBLEM WITH ENDOGENOUS FILTRATION

This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions.     

资源配置视角下战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程研究

采用案例分析法，以国家传感网创新示范区建设的决策过程为研究对象，从资源配置视角重新审视了战略性新兴产业基地建设的决策过程。结果表明，在战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程中，地方政府充分发挥了主观能动性，与中央政府、科研机构及企业积极互动，获得了建设产业基地的资源。同时，中央政府完成了与产业基地甄选及部署相关的资源配置。