基于期权定价理论的风险投资决策

项目评价的传统方法———净现值(NPV)法在应用于风险投资项目时,由于低估了投资价值,往往会使得投资者失去一些有价值的投资机会。结合风险投资的特性,将期权定价理论应用于风险投资决策中,并建立连续及离散两种状态下的决策模型     

国立中央大学造园教育的发展及影响

在1951年北京农业大学造园组设立之前,已经有 一些学校进行了长期的课程建设,国立中央大学在农科和工科 中都开设了造园相关课程。通过梳理国立中央大学园艺、森林 和建筑工程科(系)中庭园相关课程的开设情况、设置原因及 授课教师,分析造园相关的科研、实践及其对风景园林学科发 展的影响。研究发现国立中央大学造园相关课程主要由园艺系 发展而来,建筑系可选修,课程均有相应实习,由吴耕民、陆 费执、范赉、李驹、陈植、曾勉、毛宗良、刘敦桢、刘福泰、 章守玉等留学归国的骨干教师开设。师生们不仅将其教学体系 推广至全国,也进行了一些造园实践和研究,为中国风景园林 学科的发展奠定了坚实的基础。     

房地产投资决策中实物期权方法的应用

传统的净现值投资决策方法将不确定性视为一种损失,忽略了项目投资的灵活性和战略性,往往造成项目价值的低估,而实物期权弥补了NPV法的不足。本文将实物期权方法}J入房地产投资决策中,对比分析了传统净现值法的一些不足,介绍了实物期权的基本理论,并采用了B-S期权定价模型对房地产投资决策过程中蕴含的迟延期权进行了案例分析。     

A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development

Because enterprises do not disclose their internal specific cost information to the public and, moreover, every firm has its own product character and financial constitutions, it is difficult to offer fixed guidelines for investment decisions. Thus, an enterprise may be uncertain when required to choose the most promising set of possible investments.The goal of this research is to use a grey relation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to probe the core product development and competitiveness of an enterprise from limited data and, furthermore, by constructing the grey model, GM(1,1), to validate the feasibility of this assessment of the core competitiveness and investment strategy. In this study, a precision mechanical manufacturer is taken as an example, and the forecast estimate from this method is compared to those of a linear regression and the actual values to demonstrate the feasibility of applying this methodology to investment decision making, hence, demonstrating the value of this research.     

Exploring the use of travel information – identifying contextual market segmentation in Seoul, Korea

As the amount of information is rapidly growing, and ubiquitous urban environments are emerging, the question which kind of information to provide is a major challenge for commercial and public travel-information service providers alike. This paper reports the analyses of recent data, collected in Metropolitan Seoul, about the acquisition of travel information. The study applies CHAID analysis to find homogeneous segments in travel information acquisition. Findings indicate that contextual variables are crucial to explain information acquisition behaviour, depending on decision context. The implication is that both socioeconomic and contextual variables are important to better understand the acquisition (and provision) of travel information. The results have important implications for managers and policy-makers, in particular in the way they respond to dynamic, contextual market segmentation.     

精英与公民参与决策博弈的新视角——基于托马斯的有效决策模型

精英决策模式是众多民主国家普遍适用的公共决策模式。随着“强势民主”、“公民治理”的兴起及信息技术的提高,公民参与公共决策成为未来的发展趋势。有效决策模型解决了公民参与公共决策存在的无序性、非公益性及非均衡性等问题,为我国公共决策模式的发展提供了指导方向,我国应坚持精英主导下的公民参与公共决策模式。     

Can farmers extend their cultivation areas in urban agriculture? A contribution from agronomic analysis of market gardening systems around Mahajanga (Madagascar)

The rapid urbanization in developing countries implies an increasing pressure on urban agriculture for production. As most perishable food products come from this agriculture in close proximity to population concentrations, we analysed from an agronomic point of view how market-garden farmers can meet this increasing urban demand. This work took place in the case of Mahajanga, a secondary city with high increasing demographic rate on the Northwest coast of Madagascar. Based on preliminary surveys to characterize the farming systems (on a sample of 91 farms), 11 market-garden farmers chosen in the three main agricultural zones of the urban area were surveyed during two years. Surveys aimed at understanding their decision rules in crop choices, crop allocation to land and resource management, and to estimate their room for manoeuvre to increase their leafy vegetable areas under cultivation. The wholesalers and retailers who buy the farmers’ produce were also surveyed. A previous model of decision rules regarding crop location on farm territory was used to analyse the on-farm surveys and cartographic methods (GIS and on-farm manual representations) were used to quantify the land use. We highlight the following major points. (1) The leafy vegetable production in the surveyed farms already intensively uses land: farmers have complex decision rules largely depending on the water dynamics in the two main environments (lowlands and lakesides) where leafy vegetables are cultivated during the dry season. (2) The scarcity of farmers’ resources (labour money and water) leads to very little internal room for manoeuvre to increase the leafy vegetable production in the farms. (3) At territorial level however, some land reserve exist in one of the lowlands, but not on lakesides. The water availability for agriculture must be better informed through specialized hydrologic studies, as one of the main constraints nowadays to extend the agricultural area. An extrapolation to other cases of urban agriculture is then discussed as well as the role of agronomy to help urban planners to consider the place of agriculture in the urban development.     

城市轨道交通相邻多车站动态协同限流研究

为应对城市轨道交通车站高峰期客流压力,限流已经成为常态应对措施,而经常采用的限流策略大多针对单个车站,缺少对相邻多个车站的协同考虑。基于客流在车站间的传播效应,以乘客总延误时间最小为目标,以站台及列车能力为约束条件,构建城市轨道交通相邻多车站协同限流决策模型,同时为实现实时动态控制,引入滚动时域控制方法,优化多车站动态协同限流流程。以北京地铁8号线为例,经过相邻若干车站运营数据进行限流策略计算。结果表明,该模型限流可以在不造成车站服务人数损失的同时,将乘客总延误时间降低21%。     

基于会计目标的“事项会计”

信息技术已经给社会、经济带来了巨大的变化,“决策有用观“普遍被人们所接受,但构筑于价值法基础上的财务会计强调货币计量和报表揭示,只能履行受托责任。信息需求的多样性已经完全超出了现行会计界定的范围,也超出了现行会计信息的容量。本文从会计目标与“事项会计“的关系入手进行了分析,认为只有事项会计才能实现“委托责任观“与“决策有用观“的统一。     

利益集团视角下的三农问题现状及对策研究

本文针对三农问题,首先运用集体行动理论,考察农民群体无法形成有竞争力的利益集团的原因：在此基础上通过建模构划出政府决策机制作为框架,对政府决策过程中力量悬殊的利益集团和群体之间的博弈结果进行分析;进而考察了现实中政府的城市偏向性政策形成的机理;最后从促成农民利益集团的形成、增强农民利益群体的力量和优化博弈三个角度提出政策建议。