Industry aspects of takeovers and divestitures: Evidence from the UK

This paper examines takeover and divestiture activity at the industry level for the population of UK firms over the period 1986–2000. Consistent with US research, takeovers in the UK cluster both across industries and over time. The evidence for divestitures indicates clustering across industries only. The paper further investigates whether broad and specific industry shocks (e.g., growth, free cash flow, concentration, deregulation, foreign competition, technology, stock market performance) explain takeover and divestiture clustering at the industry level. The results suggest that broad shocks increase (decrease) the likelihood of takeovers (divestitures), although not significantly for takeovers. Specific industry shocks that increase the likelihood of takeover activity include low growth, the threat of foreign competition and high stock market performance. For divestitures, high industry concentration and deregulation increase activity. Little evidence is found for deregulation as a significant factor in explaining takeover activity.     

金融行业对实体行业的尾部风险传导研究——基于实体企业金融化视角

本文基于我国金融资本超额回报率的事实,在市场套利分析框架下实证检验了实 体企业金融化是抑制还是加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。数值模拟结果表明：从杠杆率来看,实体 企业金融化对杠杆率具有“双刃剑”效应,然而,实证结果发现,从长期经济后果来看,实体 企业金融化却显著提高了杠杆率,基于Altman-Z值的风险分析进一步发现企业破产风险显著 上升,从而加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。文章的研究结论有利于全面观察实体企业金融化带来的 的实际效果,也揭示了金融行业对实体行业的风险传导过程中的一个风险源,对于实体经济和 金融领域关于企业金融化效应的研究具有参考价值。     

The effect of permanent product discounts and order coupons on purchase incidence,purchase quantity,and spending

This paper examines the influence of a permanent discount strategy on customer purchase behavior, i.e., purchase incidence in each week, purchase quantity (in units), and total order spending (in CNY). Permanent discounts are defined as discounts continuously provided by retailers. We identify two types of permanent discounts, namely, product-specific price discounts (PD) and order coupons (OD, which can be redeemed for a total order). We collect transactional data from a Chinese online retailer and empirically examine the effects of the two types of permanent discounts and customers’ expectations of PD and OD. We find nonlinear relationships between permanent discounts and customer purchase behavior. PDs negatively influence spending when they are lower than 19% but show a positive effect beyond this threshold, hence depicting a U-shaped relationship. They also affect purchase quantity positively but at a decreasing rate. Customer expectations of PD influence purchase incidence, spending, and purchase quantity following a U-shaped patter with a positive influence appearing when PD expectations are high than 31%, 27%, and 18% respectively. On the other hand, ODs influence spending and purchase quantity positively at an increasing rate. Customer expectations of OD influence purchase incidence, spending, and purchase quantity following a U-shaped relationship where the positive influence on purchase incidence shows beyond OD expectations of 426 CNY, and the positive effect appearing on spending and purchase quantity when these expectations are higher than 34 CNY. We also find that customer expectations of discounts interact with current discount levels in their influence on spending. Combining these results and considering that order coupons negatively affect the profit margin of the total basket, we suggest that retailers should offer order coupons with relatively low value but product-specific price discounts with high discount depth.     

信息化对制造业升级的影响机制研究

信息化对制造业升级的影响日益深远，但其影响机制也更加复杂。通过微观、宏观双视角定性论述，借助GMM模型对中国283个城市2004-2014年的面板数据进行定量测度，探讨了信息化对制造业升级的影响机制。结果显示：信息化与制造业升级存在倒U型关系，当信息化程度未跨过风险拐点时，其对制造业升级会产生促进作用；信息化程度跨过风险拐点后，信息化对制造业升级的促进作用呈下降趋势。研究表明信息化并不总是促进制造业升级，信息化是机遇也是挑战，各地区需要因地制宜，结合自身工业化水平来发展信息化。     

The forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution: Its impact on society and firms

The impact of the industrial and digital (information) revolutions has, undoubtedly, been substantial on practically all aspects of our society, life, firms and employment. Will the forthcoming AI revolution produce similar, far-reaching effects? By examining analogous inventions of the industrial, digital and AI revolutions, this article claims that the latter is on target and that it would bring extensive changes that will also affect all aspects of our society and life. In addition, its impact on firms and employment will be considerable, resulting in richly interconnected organizations with decision making based on the analysis and exploitation of “big” data and intensified, global competition among firms. People will be capable of buying goods and obtaining services from anywhere in the world using the Internet, and exploiting the unlimited, additional benefits that will open through the widespread usage of AI inventions. The paper concludes that significant competitive advantages will continue to accrue to those utilizing the Internet widely and willing to take entrepreneurial risks in order to turn innovative products/services into worldwide commercial success stories. The greatest challenge facing societies and firms would be utilizing the benefits of availing AI technologies, providing vast opportunities for both new products/services and immense productivity improvements while avoiding the dangers and disadvantages in terms of increased unemployment and greater wealth inequalities.     

数字普惠金融的创业效应与收入不平等:数字鸿沟还是数字红利？

数字普惠金融与实体经济之间的关系受到学界广泛关注,但其究竟是普惠的数字红利还是金融领域的数字鸿沟,这是数字普惠金融快速发展中亟需回答的重要理论与现实问题。文章通过匹配宏观统计数据和微观调查数据,实证研究了数字普惠金融的发展对收入不平等的影响,并从创业效应这一渠道进行了机制分析。研究发现：数字普惠金融的发展总体上改善了收入不平等状况,而数字普惠金融的创业效应是影响收入不平等的重要渠道之一。进一步的中介效应分析表明,数字普惠金融的创业效应对收入不平等的影响存在异质性：数字普惠金融通过促进生存型创业从而改善了收入不平等,而数字普惠金融对机会型创业的促进却在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。文章的研究结论对于理解数字普惠金融发展的正外部性以及如何缓解收入不平等提供了新的视角。     

Consumer cooperatives as an alternative form of governance: The case of the broadband industry

With a growing number of consumer cooperatives in non-agrarian industries such as energy and broadband, there is a need to better understand their emergence as a viable form of governance. In this context, the paper uses Mikami’s (2010) model on consumer cooperatives to explain their emergence as a result of their ability to generate additional equity financing through the membership market. It focuses on the motivations of consumers to financially contribute to a cooperative by examining the risks and benefits associated with the investment. Based on a survey of 759 consumers, it links their motivations for joining a cooperative to different forms of risks and benefits associated with the investment. It shows that the risks related to cost sharing and switching costs are important determinants for consumers. Other factors that affected the likelihood of joining a cooperative were expected benefits with respect to user network externalities and infrastructure gains.     

我国最低工资政策的就业效应——基于北京市和重庆市建筑业的分析

VAR模型对最低工资就业效应的分析结果显示:北京市的最低工资标准与建筑业就业只是在数理统计上存在关系,并没有实际的经济意义;最低工资对重庆市建筑业的微弱负影响可以忽略不计。最低工资的就业效应并不明显,可以紧密联系行业平均工资来调整最低工资标准,以保障劳动者的基本生活。     

The significance of digital data systems for smart city policy

Our planet is gradually moving towards an urbanized world. Modern urban agglomerations tend to turn nowadays into advanced information hubs supporting a smart management of dynamic urban systems. The currently popular notion of ‘smart cities’ aims to provide a new perspective for sustainable and high-performance strategies of city stakeholders in our ‘urban century’. In this context, digital information technology provides a new tool for efficient and effective management and planning of urban space, inter alia in the field of transportation, environment, public facilities or advanced service provision to citizens. This paper aims to offer, first, a concise overview of the emerging opportunities of information and communication technology (ICT) for smart urban policy; digital technology in particular, appears to provide novel pathways for modern planning strategies in smart cities. Against this background, the paper sketches out the complex force field of global urbanisation phenomena and highlights the data and information needs for strategic planning of cities (using inter alia as a framework the so-called ‘urban piazza’ strategy framework). Secondly, various new decision support tools that are currently emerging and that offer a new promising scope for handling complex urban management issues (for instance, on accessibility, congestion, safety or sustainability) are briefly presented. And finally, the potential of such digital data systems for urban management and policy is concisely illustrated by means of some recent applications in the area of smartphone data systems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges ahead for urban policy, inter alia by paying attention to institutional and governance aspects of ‘big digital data’ management in urban systems.     

高技术服务业与资源型产业融合对资源型企业两阶段创新效率的影响

基于新技术与新知识的高技术服务业跨界融合是传统企业实现创新资源优化配置、创新研发和商业转化的重要因素。因此，运用熵指数测度全国各省区高技术服务业与资源型产业融合水平，并利用2014—2017年资源型上市公司面板数据检验两大产业融合对资源型企业两阶段创新效率的影响，同时探讨企业吸收能力的调节作用。结果表明：现阶段高技术服务业和资源型产业融合程度不高，但发展态势良好，处于从失调走向协调的转变期；产业融合对资源型企业创新研发效率短期无显著影响，长期存在抑制作用，资源型企业技术能力刚性导致对新技术的排斥，且较大的产业间认知差距削弱了产业间良性互动带来的技术扩散效应；产业融合对创新转化效率呈先抑制、后促进效应，就长期而言，产业融合具有良好的创新转化推动力；资源型企业吸收能力分别在产业融合与滞后一期创新研发效率及滞后三期创新转化效率的关系中起正向、负向调节作用，表明资源型企业吸收能力构建尚不全面。