Can a Wealthy Economy Gain from an EU Membership? Adjustment Costs and Long Term Welfare Effects of Full Integration—The Norwegian Case

We employ a large scale macroeconometric model to study adjustment problems and long term welfare effects of a Norwegian EU-membership. Accession costs depend significantly on the country's level of GDP, the size of its agricultural sector and tariff and VAT revenues as these elements determine the net membership contribution. Without the transfers, integrating the economy into EU generates a small welfare gain. This result is strongly affected by a long period with under-utilisation of resources. With the net contribution included, we identify a welfare loss. This is especially so if fiscal policy is changed to maintain the public sector budgetary balance.     

云南银行业的大湄公河次区域发展战略:跨国经营

随着经济一体化和金融全球化趋势的日益演进，中国乃至云南省银行业都面临着日益严峻的挑战，在此形势下，云南省银行业必须实现在澜沧江-湄公河次区域的跨国发展战略，才能在激烈的竞争中立于不败之地。主要就云南省商业银行跨国发展的必要性及目前自身存在的不足进行了分析，同时提出了其跨国发展必须与中国跨国公司协同发展的新战略。     

Inequality of Opportunity in Europe

Using the EU‐SILC database, we estimate and compare the Inequality of Opportunity (IO) of 23 European countries in 2005. IO is estimated as the between‐type (ex‐ante) inequality component following the parametric procedure of Ferreira and Gignoux (2011 ), which allows for the inclusion of the large set of circumstances in the database. We also measure the degree of correlation between IO estimates and a set of past and contemporaneous economic factors related to the degree of development, labor market performance, investment in human capital, and social protection spending.     

中欧服务业产业内贸易实证研究

由服务贸易的比较优势和产业内贸易研究概况,引出对中欧服务业产业内贸易的实证分析。基于2004～2009年中欧服务贸易数据测算出GL指数和MIIT指数,发现了各服务部门产业内贸易发展的不同态势。选取人均GDP、服务贸易开放程度和对外贸易不平衡程度作为自变量,即影响因素,但均未表现出与产业内贸易指数较强的相关性。     

EU enlargement and the evolution of European production networks

We analyse the regionalisation of the European Union's production networks and the impact of enlargement by looking at trends in trade in intermediate and final products in different types of technology between 1995 and 2007. We find that enlargement has coincided with quite major changes in the structure of trade within and beyond the EU. Overall we find that the new member states of the EU12 have become a more important source of goods both for the sub-region itself and for the EU15.We look at trends in different types of products and technologies. We find that there has been greater regional consolidation of production networks in lower tech goods, while in high tech goods global sources of inputs - especially ASEAN + 3 - are becoming more important. Overall the EU12 is becoming a more important source of both intermediate and final products, especially within its own sub-region. This evolution makes the companies in the sub-region very dependent on the EU home market.     

The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum

We study the behaviours of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum. We investigate how the two markets responded to the announcement of the voting results by employing a Bayesian updating methodology to update prior opinion about the likelihood of the final outcome of the vote. We then relate the voting model to the real-time evolution of the market-determined prices as the results were announced. We find that, although both markets appear to be inefficient in absorbing the new information contained in the vote outcomes, the betting market seems less inefficient than the FX market. The different rates of convergence to the fundamental value between the two markets lead to highly profitable arbitrage opportunities.     

The European IFRS Endorsement Process – in Search of a Single Voice

We analyse the creation and development of the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG), a key part of the EU endorsement mechanism for International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), which was probably the first example of a dedicated IFRS endorsement system. We discuss the historical background to the EU approach and we analyse how EFRAG evolved over its early years up to the Maystadt reform. Our analysis addresses its remit, its operational structure and financing and the key decisions made in the endorsement process over this period. We find that while national standard-setters had a limited role in the early stages, and EFRAG had limited resources, over time the pressure to find more resources and to try to achieve a unified voice in the creating of international standards have resulted in national standard-setters playing an ever-greater role. Nonetheless, a single voice for Europe is not likely to be attained     

Short-termism,shareholder payouts and investment in the EU

Investor-driven 'short-termism' is said to harm EU public firms' ability to invest for the long term, prompting calls for the EU to better insulate managers from shareholder pressure. But the evidence offered—rising levels of repurchases and dividends—is incomplete and misleading: it ignores large offsetting equity issuances that move capital from investors to EU firms. We show that, over the last 30 years and the last decade, net shareholder payouts have been moderate and investment and cash balances have increased. In sum, the data provide little basis for the view that short-termism in the EU warrants corporate governance reforms.     

Enhancing environmental information transparency through corporate social responsibility reporting regulation

This research aims to contribute to the scientific debate about the lack of interlinkages between mandatory non-financial reporting and sustainable business models. For our purposes, a counter-accounting analysis was conducted on the non-financial reports of a sample of 145 Italian firms interested by the Directive 2014/95/EU effects. Specifically, the study adopts an empirical approach to evaluate environmental information transparency, which represents one of the main critical issues concerning the non-financial declarations prepared by European Italian Public Interest Entities (PIEs) to comply with Directive 2014/95/EU. The results highlight that corporate governance and report characteristics affect environmental transparency. Furthermore, the results confirm the overall attitude to avoid the disclosure of unfavourable or unavailable environmental information through impression management strategies. Finally, the analysis underlines the opportunities for policymakers to rethink mandatory non-financial reporting to sustain the ecological transition of European PIEs.     

THE IMPACT OF THE EU EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM ON COMPETITIVENESS AND CARBON LEAKAGE: THE ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE

This paper carefully surveys the econometric literature that tests for competitiveness effects and related carbon leakage caused by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The results of this literature tell us that to date there is no evidence of the EU ETS having had widespread negative or positive effects on the competitiveness of regulated firms, nor is there evidence of significant carbon leakage. However, the paper also identifies three important caveats to this general conclusion. Firstly, the evidence we have still largely refers to the first two trading periods, namely Phases I (2005–2007) and II (2008–2012). Secondly, some heterogeneity of estimated effects is observed, but patterns, notably sectoral patterns, hardly emerge. Thirdly, very little explored is whether the EU ETS has had long-term effects on the economy via investment leakage or firm dynamics. Further empirical studies investigating these long-term effects are particularly desirable.