Using a hidden Markov model to measure earnings quality

We propose and validate a new measure of earnings quality based on a hidden Markov model. This measure, termed earnings fidelity, captures how faithful earnings signals are in revealing the true economic state of the firm. We estimate the measure using a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that accommodates cross-sectional heterogeneity. Earnings fidelity is positively associated with the forward earnings response coefficient. It significantly outperforms existing measures of quality in predicting two external indicators of low-quality accounting: restatements and Securities and Exchange Commission comment letters.     

金融资产配置与股价信息含量

股价信息含量作为资本定价效率的重要体现，其对于抑制"脱实向虚"实现金融服务实体经济起着关键作用。文章着眼于我国企业大量配置金融资产这一现实，探究了其对股价信息含量的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股上市公司数据的实证检验表明：金融资产具有"盈余管理"功能，管理层可能出于"盈余管理"动机配置金融资产，恶化公司信息环境，最终降低了股价信息含量。具体而言，企业通过操纵金融资产确认类别、公允价值估值及终止确认等方式达到盈余管理目的。当公司盈余管理动机较为强烈时，金融资产对股价信息含量的降低作用更加明显。完善的法律体制及有效的内部治理有助于缓解两者之间的负向关系。文章结论为我国企业持有金融资产提供了新解释，揭示了"脱实向虚"作用于实体经济的路径，同时丰富了会计政策选择的经济后果，为推动我国会计准则改革具有一定的启示意义。     

避免亏损与公开增发盈余管理的识别与估计:来自聚束设计的实证证据

基于2002-2017年中国A股上市公司披露的加权平均净资产收益率(ROE)数据,本文识别出上市公司在0%(避免亏损)和6%(公开增发股票)两个阈值处的盈余管理动机,并对盈余管理频率和幅度进行估计。首先,数据证实A股上市公司ROE分布图在阈值0%和6%处存在明显的左侧样本缺失、右侧样本聚集现象,表明公司确实为满足政策要求在阈值附近进行了盈余管理,将公司ROE从阈值左侧操纵至右侧。其次,本文用聚束设计方法估计出3.18%的上市公司为避免汇报亏损而进行盈余管理,占真实亏损公司的59.25%,进行盈余管理的公司将ROE平均提高了2.115个百分点。为了成功公开增发而进行盈余管理的上市公司比例虽然仅有0.28%,但占到了实际股票公开增发公司的58.13%,平均盈余管理幅度为0.524个百分点。最后,异质性分析表明:2016年以前上市公司为了避免亏损而进行盈余管理的动机一直很稳定,2002-2005年是为了满足公开增发条件而进行盈余管理最严重的年份;动机强烈的ST企业和杠杆率高的企业进行盈余管理的频率更高。     

Non-GAAP Earnings and the Earnings Quality Trade-off

Using a large sample of earnings press releases by Australian firms, we compare multiple attributes of non-GAAP earnings measures with their closest GAAP equivalent. We find that, on average, non-GAAP earnings are more persistent, smoother, more value relevant, and have higher predictive power than their closest GAAP equivalent. However, the same set of non-GAAP earnings disclosures are also less conservative and less timely than their closest GAAP equivalent. The results are consistent with non-GAAP earnings measures reflecting a reversal of the trade-off between the valuation and stewardship roles of accounting inherent in accounting standards and the way they are applied. We also find that differences in several of these attributes between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings are more evident in larger firms, firms with lower market-to-book ratios, firms with a higher proportion of independent directors, and firms that report profits rather than losses. Our evidence is consistent with the argument that accounting standards impose significant amounts of conditional conservatism at some cost to the valuation role of accounting information. Non-GAAP earnings measures can therefore be seen as a response to the challenges faced by a single GAAP performance measure in satisfying the competing demands of value relevance and stewardship.     

Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas

In this study, we used informational advantage in the options market to investigate whether the option-implied equity risk developed by Chen, Chung, and Tsai (2016) - viewed as a type of time-varying beta - can help explain both the Hou and Moskowitz (2005) price delay premium and post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Our empirical results revealed a clear association between quintile portfolios with greater price delay premiums and higher option-implied betas, while the Fama-MacBeth regressions showed that the implied betas are positively related to future delay-based portfolio returns. Regarding the PEAD, we discerned a general increase in the mean of portfolio option-implied betas with standardized unexpected earnings portfolio drift. Our regression results support the notion that a portfolio’s PEAD can be viewed as compensation for the variations in option-implied betas.     

Is the leadership of the Brent-WTI threatened by China’s new crude oil futures market?

The recent listing of a new crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) has reopened the debate over whether crude oil produced in different countries or locations constitutes a unified world oil market. The aim of this paper is to study the information flows among Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the new Medium Sour Crude Oil (SC) futures contract listed on INE futures markets to assess whether the trading of this new futures contract has altered the dominant role of the most traded oil benchmarks in the world. A multiple regression model identifies the Brent futures market as the most influential market in the oil price discovery process, while WTI appears to be the most sensitive. Furthermore, we have observed that SC does not influence any market and it is only sensitive to Brent news, even though WTI is the most heavily traded futures contract. Therefore, the launch of the SC futures contract has not yet altered the dominant role of Brent over WTI.     

Debt covenants in Japanese loan markets: in comparison with the traditional relationship banking

This study investigates determinants of debt covenants in Japanese loan markets. We focus on a unique monitoring mechanism by Japanese banks and hypothesise that debt covenants substitute for the traditional main bank governance. Consistently, we find that debt covenants are less likely to be used for firms with stronger ties with their main banks. We also document that such use of debt covenants results in borrower’s upward earnings management. Overall, our evidence suggests that, in the Japanese context, debt covenants are used as a substitute for the main bank system yet they alone are an incomplete monitoring mechanism.     

Earnings management,audit adjustments,and the financing of corporate acquisitions: Evidence from China

Acquirers are motivated to overstate earnings prior to stock-financed acquisitions. We hypothesize that audits help to detect and correct such overstatements. We test this using a difference-in-differences design, which compares audit adjustments to earnings for stock-financed and cash-financed acquirers before versus after the acquisitions. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find larger downward adjustments in the audits immediately before stock-financed acquisitions. Further analysis of regulatory sanctions suggests the downward adjustments are in fact warranted, rather than auditors being overly conservative. Moreover, modifications in audit reports suggest that downward adjustments do not correct all of the reporting irregularities in audited financial statements.     

Capturing Retailers’ Brand and Customer Focus

This article uses information from two data sources, Compustat and Nexis Uni, and textual analysis to measure and validate the brand focus and customer focus of 109 U.S. listed retailers. The results from an analysis of their 853 earnings calls in 2010 and 2018 outline that on average, both foci increased over time. Although both foci vary substantially, brand focus varies more widely across retailers than their customer focus. Both foci are independent of each other. Specialty retailers have the highest brand focus, and internet & direct marketing retailers have the highest customer focus. A positive correlation exists between a retailer’s customer focus and its profitability, but not between a retailer’s brand focus and its profitability. The authors use the results to generate a research agenda that can direct future research in further systematically exploring firms’ brand and customer focus.