Stock investment strategy combining earnings power index and machine learning

We propose an intermediate-term stock investment strategy based on fundamental analysis and machine learning. The approach uses predictors from the Earnings Power Index (EPI) as input variables derived from cross-sectional and time-series data from a company’s financial statements. The analytical methods of machine learning allow us to validate the link between financial factors and excess returns directly. We then select stocks for which returns are likely to increase at the time of the next disclosed financial statement. To verify the proposed approach’s usefulness, we use company data listed publicly on the Korean stock market from 2013 to 2019. We examine the profitability of trading strategy based on ten machine-learning techniques by forming long, short, and hedge portfolios with three different measures. As a result, most portfolios, including EPI-related variables, present positive returns regardless of the period. Especially, the neural network of the two layers with sigmoid function presents the best performance for the period of 3 months and 6 months, respectively. Our results show that incorporating machine learning is useful for mid-term stock investment. Further research into the possible convergence of financial statement analysis and machine-learning techniques is warranted.     

Firm-level political risk and earnings opacity

Given the recent growing global uncertainties, firms have encountered increasing political risks and responded accordingly to avoid a negative impact on their performance. This study examines the impact of firm-level political risk on corporate earnings opacity among listed U.S. firms. Our empirical results reveal that higher firm-level political risk engenders greater corporate earnings opacity via three channels of market scrutiny, political proximity, and multiple business objectives. Further analyses show that politically risky firms are more prudent in earnings management when they are highly dependent on government spending. The results hold after a wide range of robustness tests. Our findings provide several implications for the management of earnings quality in response to increasing firm-level political risk in the U.S.     

External social networks and earnings management

Using a sample of U.S. listed firms for the 2000–2017 period, we examine how external social networks of top executives and directors affect earnings management in their firms. We find that well-connected firms are more aggressive in managing earnings through both accruals and real activities and that the results are robust after controlling for internal executive social ties. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that earnings management decreases after a socially connected executive or director dies. Additional analysis shows that connections forged by past professional working experiences have a greater impact on earnings management than connections forged by education and other social activities. Moreover, CFO social networks have a greater influence on earnings management than CEO social networks. Finally, we explore the underlying mechanisms, finding that 1) firms that are socially connected to each other show more similarities in their earnings management than firms that do not share a connection, and 2) more connected firms are less likely to incur accounting restatements. Collectively, our findings indicate that the external social networks of top executives and directors are important determinants of both their accrual- and real activity-based earnings management.     

Predictors of revenue shifting and expense shifting: Evidence from an emerging economy

Prior literature established that managers engage in Revenue Shifting (RS) and Expense Shifting (ES) with an intent to report favourable operating performance; our paper extends such research in a new direction by investigating both forms based on the need, ease, and advantage of each form of shifting strategy. The study identifies firm-specific factors that incentivize firms to prefer RS over ES and vice-versa. We undertake a longitudinal study (2001–2019) using a sample size of 39,634 firm-years, enlisted in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Our results show that peer-performance, size, financial leverage, growth opportunities, accounting flexibility, and age of the firm are important determinants of RS and ES. Specifically, our results exhibit that large, levered, old, and high-growth firms are engaged in RS, whereas small, young, firms with lesser accounting flexibility, and firms operating below peer-performance are involved in ES. These results are robust to controlling for accruals earnings management, real earnings management, endogeneity, self-selection bias, and alternative measures of RS and ES. Our findings are helpful to auditors and investors in improving awareness of forms of classification shifting.     

The timing of information arrival and overnight returns

This paper examines the information assimilation of overnight returns after positive or negative news arriving during RHT (regular-hours-trading) or AHT (after-hour-trading). We first show that overnight returns are informative of earnings news arriving either during RHT or AHT, and the effects are strongest on the first day after the announcement. Our results then suggest that positive (negative) overnight returns after good (bad) earnings news arrival increase (decrease) CARs, with more pronounced effects for news released AHT. We further show that the market takes the timing of news release into account and reacts negatively to those released during AHT, causing significant under-performance in the subsequent CAR. Lastly, our finding of market underreaction to good news and overreaction to bad news when it is released during AHT suggest that it may be more appropriate for managers to release all news during RHT when market participants are at their trading desks.     

Corporate lobbying: Resource-seeking or rent-seeking? Evidence from audit fees

Theory and prior research suggest that corporate lobbying is a primary means that corporations use to influence government policies either for improving firm performance (i.e., strategic decisions) or for rent-seeking activities (i.e., agency costs) but the evidence between lobbying activities and auditor assessments of audit risk remains unclear. Our results show that lobbying firms are associated with higher audit risks and fees, consistent with the idea that lobbying is related to rent-seeking and higher agency costs. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that the positive association between lobbying and audit fees is weaker for firms with strong corporate governance. Further analysis shows that firm financial returns or low earnings quality mediate the relationship between lobbying and audit fees. The results suggest that practitioners, users of financial statements and regulators could benefit by recognizing that lobbying activities could signal managerial opportunistic behavior.     

Minimum wages and non-listed firm’s earnings management: Evidence from a geographic discontinuity design

We examine how and to what extent minimum wage shapes non-listed firms’ earnings information production. To identify the causality, we introduce an improved geographic information system technique to locate firms in areas that straddle the continuities of county borders and then exploit discontinuities of minimum wage at county borders. We find that firms significantly manage earnings information upward as response to increases in minimum wages, particularly for firms with financial constraints. Our findings shed light on the effects of labor policy on the information production of firms and provide policy implications to regulators concerned with the allocation efficiency of capital markets.     

Religiosity and bank earnings management: Revisiting international evidence

The modernization theory forecasts a sharp declining effect of institutionalized religion on human behavior owing to the extensive economic development. However, this prediction is rejected and proved that religious values and beliefs have a pervasive influence on individual conduct. Based on this salient evidence, we examine the influence of religious social norms on bank earnings management behavior with regard to ongoing economic development. We use 20,715 bank-year observations from 1318 listed banks of eight geographical regions. We, further, employ an updated dataset of 2007–2021 to resemble the economic prosperity time period. Our study discards the prediction of the modernization theory and reveals that banks located in countries with high religiosity are less likely to manage their reported earnings. While comparing conventional banks with Islamic ones, conventional banks are found to be less prone to the earnings management practice than that of their Islamic counterparts. We also find religiosity to have a greater magnitude of effect on the accounting manipulation in the crisis period than in the post-crisis one. The cross-regional differences in religious values bring differential effects on this unethical practice. Our results are robust with the alternative measures of earnings management and alternative model specifications.     

The mobility of top earnings,income, and wealth in China: Facts from the 2011–2017 China household finance survey

We document rich facts of the intra-generational mobility of households in the top fractiles of earnings, income, and wealth distributions in China using the panel data of the 2011–2017 China Household Finance Survey. We find high mobility co-exists with high inequalities within various top fractile groups. In specific, persistence rates of the top 1% group implied an inverted-U pattern for top earnings mobility, a declined trend of top income mobility, and an improved trend for top wealth mobility during the study period. Although the overall trends of mobility for top earnings, income, and wealth showed diverse patterns, they are still considered high from global comparisons. Besides, the top 1% households generate significantly more income from business and allocate a higher fraction of their assets to private equity.     

Credit unions and earnings management to mitigate political scrutiny over tax-exempt status

In this paper, we examine whether credit unions manage earnings to mitigate political scrutiny. In particular, we study whether credit unions increased loan loss provisions to decrease earnings around a 2005 congressional hearing on the efficacy of credit unions’ tax-exempt status. On average, we find evidence consistent with credit unions managing earnings downward via the loan loss provision in the quarters leading up to and surrounding the congressional hearing. In addition, we find that credit unions with higher earnings before the loan loss provision engaged in more downward earnings management than credit unions with lower earnings before provision. Our findings contribute to the literature examining the use of downward earnings management to avoid political scrutiny and the banking literature. Likewise, our results inform the continued debate as to whether credit unions should be tax-exempt.