低碳城市理念与国际经验

全球气候变化使我国经济发展、能源安全和快速城市化面临巨大挑战.在科学发展观和建设生态文明的指引下,融合低碳经济和低碳社会发展的低碳城市发展路径成为理想选择.首先综述低碳发展的有关理念和策略,提出适应于中国国情和城市化发展阶段的"低碳城市"理念和模式.总结了英国和日本等国发展低碳城市的实践经验,并分析了对中国的借鉴意义.认为国内建设低碳城市必须走中国特色之路:发展和减碳结合、经济与社会并行、政-企-民共治.     

Using newspapers for tracking the business cycle: a comparative study for Germany and Switzerland

The use of news-based data for tracking the real economy has gained popularity recently as newspapers archives have become accessible and the need for timely information has soared. In this article, on the basis of keyword searches in newspaper articles we construct several versions of the so-called Recession-word Index (RWI) for Germany and Switzerland and exploit its use for forecasting. Our main findings are the following. First, we show that augmenting benchmark autoregressive models with the RWI leads to improvement in accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts of GDP growth compared with those obtained by benchmark models. Second, the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts obtained with models augmented with the RWI is comparable to that of models augmented with established economic indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, and the KOF Economic Barometer and the Purchasing Managers Index in manufacturing for Switzerland. Our results are robust to changes in estimation/forecast samples, the use of rolling versus expanding estimation windows and the inclusion of a web-based recession indicator from Google Trends. As our indices are timely and simple to construct, they could be replicated in countries or regions where no reliable economic indicators exist or their provision is very costly.     

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.     

‘MODERATION IN ALL THINGS’: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF GOVERNANCE QUALITY

Comparative measures of aspects of government in different countries are a rapidly growing industry. This paper offers a broad‐ranging critique of the state of the art. The two central questions are (a) How do currently available international measures of governance gain attention from non‐expert audiences, and (b), How understandable are they likely to be to these audiences?’ Findings from a range of relevant literature are brought to bear on three prominent sets of international measures, and conclusions are drawn.     

设置沿边金改试验区金融生态环境评估指标的分析

建立金融生态环境评估指标体系是沿边金改试验区一项重要任务。现有的金融生态环境评估指标不能很好地适应试验区的实际情况,参考有关机构已经建立起的金融生态环境评估指标。为了全面、准确地评价试验区的金融生态环境提出了一些新的指标：人民币流动效率、投资贸易便利化程度、金融业发展、金融政策。     

广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展战略量化指标构建及分析

创新驱动是推动经济结构战略性调整和产业转型升级的核心战略。从创新链视角出发,构建广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展战略量化指标体系,通过视觉化效果和地理分析功能将经济现象和发生事件图像化,对广东各地市新型专业镇创新驱动发展实施情况及效果进行实证评价,并提出了加快广东新型专业镇创新驱动发展的具体路径。     

北京市生态文明建设评价研究

生态文明建设是北京市社会经济发展的重要战略方向。通过专家咨询法,结合区域现状,建立了适用于北京市的生态文明建设水平评价指标体系,指标体系包含生态环境、生态经济、生态行为、生态安全、生态文化和生态社会六个方面。对北京市的生态文明建设水平进行了评价,并分析了其时间动态趋势。结果表明,北京市生态文明建设水平在2004年到2008年间呈稳步上升的趋势,其中生态环境、生态经济和生态安全的水平提高显著,而生态行为、生态文化和生态社会水平出现不同程度的起伏。北京市2007年以前处于生态文明建设的准备阶段,到2008年已经接近生态文明建设的中级阶段。此外,分析了北京市生态文明建设水平变化的影响因素,并提出了推进北京市生态文明建设的途径。     

关于生态环境的价值

本文在分析马克思关于自然物只具有“使用价值而不是价值”以及劳动含义的基础上,指出生态环境是物质资料使用价值的源泉,生态环境具有价值、生态价值和使用价值,并进而提出度量生态环境价值和生态经济效益的方法。     

税收风险管理关键绩效指标评价体系的构建及应用

税收风险管理绩效评价贯穿于税收风险管理工作的全过程,能确保税收风险管理制度得到有效执行,并能不断完善税收风险管理的工作流程。将关键绩效指标法应用于税收风险管理绩效评价工作,对税收风险管理进行全流程、全方位的评价,构建税收风险管理关键绩效指标评价体系,有助于提高税收风险管理能力和水平,全面实现以风险管理为导向的现代化税收征管体系。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区承接东部加工贸易转移的SWOT分析

随着发达地区生产要素成本的上升,传统产业从发达地区向欠发达地区转移的趋势日益突出。鄱阳湖生态经济区作为江西的核心区域,是江西承接东部加工贸易梯度转移的重要移入区。文章分析了鄱阳湖生态经济区承接加工贸易转移的优势（S）、劣势（W）、机遇（O）以及挑战（T）,为该地区更好地吸引产业转移,充分利用产业转移带来的资金、技术、人才提出了相关建议。