中国公共教育财政溢出效应分析——基于空间经济计量方法

通过计算Moran's I指标发现,中国各省内部县与县之间的教育财政配置存在明显的聚集效应。对聚集效应的研究结果表明,教育支出聚集效应受到经济、财政和人口迁徙聚集效应的影响,经济聚集、财政资源聚集和人口迁徙聚集对教育资源空间聚集的影响都是正向且显著的,说明这三个因素都对教育财政资源的空间聚集产生了正面溢出效应。不同因素的溢出效应强弱不同,经济聚集对教育财政资源聚集的溢出效应最强,其次是财政资源聚集,影响最弱的是人口迁徙聚集。     

地方政府竞争与环境政策——来自中国省份数据的证据

市场化改革带来了经济领域的分权,在既定的政府管理体制下,这种分权导致地方政府间围绕流动性要素展开竞争。本文从环境政策的角度对我国省份间的竞争和博弈行为进行了实证检验。研究结果显示,我国的财政分权和基于经济增长的政绩考核体制,使地方政府当前的环境政策之间存在着相互攀比式的竞争,其目的在于争夺流动性要素和固化本地资源,而不是旨在解决本地区的环境问题,这是导致我国环境状况逐年恶化的主要原因之一。但与此同时,这种竞争也呈现出从单一控制目标的粗放型策略向多元控制目标的集约型策略转化的动态特点,这表明我国地方政府在制定环境政策时的自我约束机制正在加强。为此,本文认为,为发挥地方政府竞争的良性效应,促进地区间经济社会协调发展,应当改善现行的政绩考核体制,隔断政绩与经济数量型增长间的联系,在保持地方政府的适度积极性的基础上建立公共服务导向型的地方职能部门。     

An economic evaluation of stock–bond return comovements with copula-based GARCH models

Owing to their importance in asset allocation strategies, the comovements between the stock and bond markets have become an increasingly popular issue in financial economics. Moreover, the copula theory can be utilized to construct a flexible joint distribution that allows for skewness in the distribution of asset returns as well as asymmetry in the dependence structure between asset returns. Therefore, this paper proposes three classes of copula-based GARCH models to describe the time-varying dependence structure of stock–bond returns, and then examines the economic value of copula-based GARCH models in the asset allocation strategy. We compare their out-of-sample performance with other models, including the passive, the constant conditional correlation (CCC) GARCH and the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH models. From the empirical results, we find that a dynamic strategy based on the GJR-GARCH model with Student-t copula yields larger economic gains than passive and other dynamic strategies. Moreover, a less risk-averse investor will pay higher performance fees to switch from a passive strategy to a dynamic strategy based on copula-based GARCH models.     

The econometric challenge to Keynes: arguments and contradictions in the early debates about a late issue *

The paper investigates the discussions between Keynesians and ‘reconcilers’ about the interpretation of the ‘General Theory’, and the effect of the transformation of economics during the thirties as the outcome of that discussion. It highlights the contribution of some of the first econometriians, who argued for a new view of economics as an exact science based on mechanical models and mathematically defined theories, while supporting planning rather than the indirect steering devices suggested by Keynes.

The inroduction of this type of mathematical models in the framework of Keynesian macro–policies is related to two major events: the Oxford meeting of the Econometric Society in which the IS-LM model emerged, and the Cambridge meeting dedicated to the discussion of Tinbergen's work on business cycles.

The framework, antecedents and consequences of Keynes-Tinbergen debate on the role of econometrics is here assessed on the basis of unpublished documental evidence. Although most of the econometricians took sides with tinbergen against Keynes's scepticism on the use of formal models and simple representations in macroeconomics, several of them, including the more influential of the then young mathematically inclined economists, shared some of the basic elements of the critique. These discussions among Frisch, Tinbergen, Lange, Divisia, Roos, Marschak and others are reviewed in the paper and related to the evolution of the Cambridge group itself.     

A selective review of the first 20 years of instrumental variables models in health-services research and medicine

Abstract

Background:

The method of instrumental variables (IV) is useful for estimating causal effects. Intuitively, it exploits exogenous variation in the treatment, sometimes called natural experiments or instruments. This study reviews the literature in health-services research and medical research that applies the method of instrumental variables, documents trends in its use, and offers examples of various types of instruments.     

Economics as progress: the LSE approach to econometric modelling and critical realism as programmes for research

In the face of claims that economics is increasingly drivenmerely by fashion, this paper draws out certain similaritiesand differences between two self-consciously progressive anddevelopmental research programmes—namely the LSE approachto econometric modelling and critical realism in economics.The argument is that, while these two programmes of researchshare a common point of departure and possess many common elements,what at root distinguishes them is their adoption of opposingphilosophical orientations. The comparison enables both thenature of each programme, and the relevance of their commonconcerns, to be more easily appreciated and helps clarify thesort of evidence that would provide a basis for selecting oneproject over the other.     

Financial distress,survival network design strategies,and airline pricing: An event study of a merger between a bankrupt FSC and an LCC in Brazil

This paper develops an event study to investigate the airfare effects of the bankruptcy of a financially distressed full-service carrier (FSC) and its subsequent acquisition by a low-cost carrier (LCC) in Brazil. We account for the distressed carrier's survival network design strategies (SNDS) pursued during its reorganization—a suspected source of sample selection bias. Additionally, as rivals' pricing could be aimed at driving the distressed/bankrupt carrier out of the market, we treat the carrier's distress as endogenously determined with it. Our results do not uncover any survival pricing behavior stemming from SNDS, but reveal fiercer price competition from rivals in periods preceding both the distressed carrier's bankruptcy filing and acquisition. We also find evidence of enduring price competitiveness in the long run of the acquisition event, shedding light on the potential facilitating role played by bankruptcy protection regulations in keeping and sustaining market contestability after the bankruptcy-filing period.     

衡量收入分配差距的计量经济学方法——对均等指数法的疑问及改进

利用分组数据对均等指数的计算过程与理论前提不相符,导致了不同的分组情况会得出不同的均等指数,这降低了其度量收入差距的可信度。基于对均等指数的这一疑问以及均等指数的构建与均方差只相差与样本容量相关的常数倍这一现象,提出了衡量数据离散程度的方差可以衡量收入分配内部差距的原理,结合计量经济学中线性回归的判定系数和回归斜率,可以很好地衡量收入差距,并用实证分析证明了此方法的可行性。     

A Conversation with Roger Koenker

Roger William Koenker was born February 21, 1947. He graduated from Grinnell College in 1969 and obtained his PhD in Economics from University of Michigan in 1974 under the direction of Saul Hymans. He was Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign (UIUC) from 1974 to 1976, and a member of Technical Staff at Bell Telephone Laboratories from 1976 to 1983 and returned to UIUC as Professor in 1983. He is currently a William B. McKinley Professor of Economics and Professor of Statistics at UIUC. He is best known for his seminal work on quantile regression, which has emerged as a powerful regression analysis tool across many disciplines. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Fellow of Econometric Society, and recipient of the 2010 Emanuel and Carol Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation. The conversation covers part of Roger Koenker's career as an econometrician and statistician, starting from his college years.     

我国城镇居民消费与可支配收入关系的实证分析

本文旨在对我国城镇居民年人均收入变动对年人均各种消费变动的影响进行实证分析,对基于1995年、1999年和2004年全国各地区相关截面数据所建的模型进行纵向对比,由所得的结果对原始信息作出解释和经济意义分析,并相应提出一些政策建议。