Economics as progress: the LSE approach to econometric modelling and critical realism as programmes for research

In the face of claims that economics is increasingly drivenmerely by fashion, this paper draws out certain similaritiesand differences between two self-consciously progressive anddevelopmental research programmes—namely the LSE approachto econometric modelling and critical realism in economics.The argument is that, while these two programmes of researchshare a common point of departure and possess many common elements,what at root distinguishes them is their adoption of opposingphilosophical orientations. The comparison enables both thenature of each programme, and the relevance of their commonconcerns, to be more easily appreciated and helps clarify thesort of evidence that would provide a basis for selecting oneproject over the other.     

中国公共教育财政溢出效应分析——基于空间经济计量方法

通过计算Moran's I指标发现,中国各省内部县与县之间的教育财政配置存在明显的聚集效应。对聚集效应的研究结果表明,教育支出聚集效应受到经济、财政和人口迁徙聚集效应的影响,经济聚集、财政资源聚集和人口迁徙聚集对教育资源空间聚集的影响都是正向且显著的,说明这三个因素都对教育财政资源的空间聚集产生了正面溢出效应。不同因素的溢出效应强弱不同,经济聚集对教育财政资源聚集的溢出效应最强,其次是财政资源聚集,影响最弱的是人口迁徙聚集。     

A selective review of the first 20 years of instrumental variables models in health-services research and medicine

Abstract

Background:

The method of instrumental variables (IV) is useful for estimating causal effects. Intuitively, it exploits exogenous variation in the treatment, sometimes called natural experiments or instruments. This study reviews the literature in health-services research and medical research that applies the method of instrumental variables, documents trends in its use, and offers examples of various types of instruments.     

An economic evaluation of stock–bond return comovements with copula-based GARCH models

Owing to their importance in asset allocation strategies, the comovements between the stock and bond markets have become an increasingly popular issue in financial economics. Moreover, the copula theory can be utilized to construct a flexible joint distribution that allows for skewness in the distribution of asset returns as well as asymmetry in the dependence structure between asset returns. Therefore, this paper proposes three classes of copula-based GARCH models to describe the time-varying dependence structure of stock–bond returns, and then examines the economic value of copula-based GARCH models in the asset allocation strategy. We compare their out-of-sample performance with other models, including the passive, the constant conditional correlation (CCC) GARCH and the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH models. From the empirical results, we find that a dynamic strategy based on the GJR-GARCH model with Student-t copula yields larger economic gains than passive and other dynamic strategies. Moreover, a less risk-averse investor will pay higher performance fees to switch from a passive strategy to a dynamic strategy based on copula-based GARCH models.     

Analysing liquidity and absorption limits of electronic markets with volume durations

This paper focuses on the liquidity of electronic stock markets applying a sequential estimation approach of models for volume duration with increasing threshold values. A modified ACD model with a Box–Tukey transformation and a flexible generalized beta distribution is proposed to capture the changing cluster structure of duration processes. The estimation results with German XETRA data reveal the market's absorption limit for high volumes of shares, expanding the time costs of illiquidity when trading these quantities.     

ECONOMETRICS FOR GRUMBLERS: A NEW LOOK AT THE LITERATURE ON CROSS‐COUNTRY GROWTH EMPIRICS

Abstract Since the seminal contribution of N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David N. Weil in 1992 the growth empirics literature has used increasingly sophisticated methods to select relevant growth determinants in estimating cross‐section growth regressions. The vast majority of empirical approaches, however, limit cross‐country heterogeneity in production technology to the specification of total factor productivity, the ‘measure of our ignorance’. In this survey, we present two general empirical frameworks for cross‐country growth and productivity analysis and demonstrate that they encompass the various approaches in the growth empirics literature of the past two decades. We then develop our central argument, that cross‐country heterogeneity in the impact of observables and unobservables on output as well as the time‐series properties of the data are important for reliable empirical analysis.     

Financial distress,survival network design strategies,and airline pricing: An event study of a merger between a bankrupt FSC and an LCC in Brazil

This paper develops an event study to investigate the airfare effects of the bankruptcy of a financially distressed full-service carrier (FSC) and its subsequent acquisition by a low-cost carrier (LCC) in Brazil. We account for the distressed carrier's survival network design strategies (SNDS) pursued during its reorganization—a suspected source of sample selection bias. Additionally, as rivals' pricing could be aimed at driving the distressed/bankrupt carrier out of the market, we treat the carrier's distress as endogenously determined with it. Our results do not uncover any survival pricing behavior stemming from SNDS, but reveal fiercer price competition from rivals in periods preceding both the distressed carrier's bankruptcy filing and acquisition. We also find evidence of enduring price competitiveness in the long run of the acquisition event, shedding light on the potential facilitating role played by bankruptcy protection regulations in keeping and sustaining market contestability after the bankruptcy-filing period.     

Estimation and cross-country comparison of capital stocks

While capital stock as the measure of productive capacity and the wealth of a nation figures prominently in policy analysis, capital stocks data is lacking in many countries because of the cost of data collection and other difficulties. Even in those countries where such data is compiled, the data is not always up to date. In this paper, we estimate and report the time series data for the capital stocks of 69 countries. We then use the capital stocks series to assess the future growth potentials of these countries.We would like to Thank an anonymos referee for many helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Thirty-five years of journal of econometrics

The paper discusses how the Journal of Econometrics started and has grown over the years. It analyzes a trend in the research areas of the published articles and reviews some of the important papers that have been published. It concludes with an assessment of the future of the journal.     

衡量收入分配差距的计量经济学方法——对均等指数法的疑问及改进

利用分组数据对均等指数的计算过程与理论前提不相符,导致了不同的分组情况会得出不同的均等指数,这降低了其度量收入差距的可信度。基于对均等指数的这一疑问以及均等指数的构建与均方差只相差与样本容量相关的常数倍这一现象,提出了衡量数据离散程度的方差可以衡量收入分配内部差距的原理,结合计量经济学中线性回归的判定系数和回归斜率,可以很好地衡量收入差距,并用实证分析证明了此方法的可行性。